Ex-Wall Streeter predicting a crash

[CCdaCE]

It seems like the guy is a pretty wound up, but, what is he doing about it? Seems like Lewis runs around screaming fire, and eventually stuff bursts into flames. I don't understand if he feels it's general long term malaise, or just of late. Long term degassing of the market will take just that, a long time.

The 17% stock market return so far this year seems crazy while everyone complains there's nothing good to invest in. Sure seems overpriced in such a short timeframe.

I rebalanced on Fri., since my 50/50 split of domestic vs. int'l was about 8% outta wack. Partly in response to ECB and the usual suspects and our Fed doing wonderful things with the money supply. Goin' nuts!

Oh well, not too bad since 2011.

-CC

[FinanceDude]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB What do you suggest?

Stick with blue chip companies that provide goods consumers have to buy continually. Proctor and Gamble, BP, companies like that. Regardless of the economy, their goods are in demand.

We will have to inflate our way out of this money-printing model the Fed has, and that will get ugly for awhile. Of course, all those who pine for the CD rates of the early 1980's may get their wish.........

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FinanceDude Stick with blue chip companies that provide goods consumers have to buy continually. Proctor and Gamble, BP, companies like that. Regardless of the economy, their goods are in demand. We will have to inflate our way out of this money-printing model the Fed has, and that will get ugly for awhile. Of course, all those who pine for the CD rates of the early 1980's may get their wish.........

So I should sell furniture.com?

We "might" get lucky, and old Ben pull a Goldilocks, though politicians around the world seem to have other ideas.

Of course, those pining for 1980s CD rates should look at what the "real" return was...

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFWR Of course, those pining for 1980s CD rates should look at what the "real" return was...

Beginning in the very early 80s, the real return as well as the real total return from long term govts was astronomical. It's the previous 20 years that stank.

Ha

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Like Paul Farrell, he's just another old man who realizes his best years are behind him - way behind him - preaching the religion of gloom & doom.

Pretty funny. The guy is 73 years old, he choose to retire which after all is the goal that most of us have achieved or aspire to. He has made a great deal of money, made returns of 50%/year in a very competitive arena, he feels that the dishonesty of Wall Street makes it a poor place to put money, and he shares that feeling with the public, keeps cattle, and lives with his wife. Poor old man! He should be more productive, like us. I suppose Dwight Eisenhower was also a washed up old guy who realized his best years were behind him when he warned the public about the military industrial complex, rather than just cashing some checks from consulting with arms merchants.

As I said on another thread recently, tough crowd.

[Alan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFWR We "might" get lucky, and old Ben pull a Goldilocks, though politicians around the world seem to have other ideas.

Wasn't she the one who ate the porridge and broke the furniture of the weakest member of the family?

If I remember correctly, on discovering what she'd done she ran away, never to be seen again.

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha Beginning in the very early 80s, the real return as well as the real total return from long term govts was astronomical. It's the previous 20 years that stank. Ha

Much of my return over the past ten years or so has been from bond interest going down, prices going up.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Wasn't she the one who ate the porridge and broke the furniture of the weakest member of the family? If I remember correctly, on discovering what she'd done she ran away, never to be seen again.

Not too hot, not too cold, but just right...

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HFWR Much of my return over the past ten years or so has been from bond interest going down, prices going up. Not too hot, not too cold, but just right...

Don't have any problem believing that. But getting from 14% to 2% is a different proposition from getting from 2% to 0, and the former is a whole lot less accident prone.

Ha

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha Pretty funny. The guy is 73 years old, he choose to retire which after all is the goal that most of us have achieved or aspire to. He has made a great deal of money, made returns of 50%/year in a very competitive arena, he feels that the dishonesty of Wall Street makes it a poor place to put money, and he shares that feeling with the public, keeps cattle, and lives with his wife. Poor old man! He should be more productive, like us. I suppose Dwight Eisenhower was also a washed up old guy who realized his best years were behind him when he warned the public about the military industrial complex, rather than just cashing some checks from consulting with arms merchants. As I said on another thread recently, tough crowd.

You still haven't shared with us what you think.

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha Don't have any problem believing that. But getting from 14% to 2% is a different proposition from getting from 2% to 0, and the former is a whole lot less accident prone. Ha

Yeah, didn't take much knowledge to make money under that scenario; just own bonds or bond funds. Think that's played out, so my bond allocation will remain pretty high (45% at present), but will be mostly short-term...

As for Goldilocks, I think the Fed is trying to keep us afloat with cheap money until we can de-lever, until population growth absorbs excess housing, etc.

Whether that works remains to be seen, but that would be "just right".

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB You still haven't shared with us what you think.

Why is that important? Ha didn't start the thread. He is simply pointing out the guy has a decent back ground and is not another kook trying to sell something.

[unclemick]

I just hope Vanguard has paid their electric bill(for their computers) - I'm full auto lifecycle same as the last little downleg. That was chewy but I stayed the course let those trusty computers rebalance and cut expenses. So my decision is premade - up or down.

But I would natually prefer both Mr Market and the Saints do better.

heh heh heh - if he is right there goes my good used BMW as a second car.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB You still haven't shared with us what you think.

I think I don't feel the need to affirm or deny everything that comes along.

I do think that he is clearly qualified to have an informed opinion.

Ha

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg52 Why is that important? Ha didn't start the thread. He is simply pointing out the guy has a decent back ground and is not another kook trying to sell something.

Why? Because I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Ha, he is a seasoned and successful investor, and I am genuinely interested in his view on this. He is posting in the thread but, like the belle of the ball, keeping us all in suspense.

Edit to add: I saw Ha's response after posting. None of us are obliged to respond, but this is a moment when veteran investors can help the others. Calling out detractors of Lewis' view seems to confirm Ha might agree with his opinion and it would be interesting for Ha to let us know. Not intending to offend.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Why? Because I have a great deal of respect for Mr. Ha, he is a seasoned and successful investor, and I am genuinely interested in his view on this. He is posting in the thread but, like the belle of the ball, keeping us all in suspense.

First, thank you for your compliment. But it remains true, that I do not know how to chart the best course, and as some others have poined out, neither does anyone else.

I see this person essentially being attacked because his message, which is very clearly stated, does not fit well with the hopes and dreams of all of us.

I state the only thing that I can state, I don't know about this, but I do know that his opinion on what the risks are is worth hearing out, in detail.

He is pointing out risks, which of course is not the same as an opinion on what will happen-something only a poorly informed person would put forth.

Sorry, that is going to have to do. I can't manufacture an opinion that I do not have.

Ha