Excellent Fortune article - US losing its edge

[wildcat]

Article about how the US is losing its edge on developing countries, why and what it should do about it.

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/artic...081269,00.html

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat Article about how the US is losing its edge on developing countries, why and what it should do about it. http://www.fortune.com/fortune/artic...081269,00.html

I couldn't get beyond the first page without a signup, but that first page was depressing enough.* Unfortunately, I find myself agreeing with every word

[playaman]

Ditto ....

The thesis behind this article is so true that it is painful to read.

The simple truth is that the U.S. has lost or is losing its competitive edge in manufacturing and other basic industries upon which a modern industrial society is based. Beyond acknowledging the possibility that this may be so, however, most of our political leaders -- of both parties -- seem to be adopting the ostrich approach: "if we ignore it, maybe it will go away."

Rather than permutations of morality, the next national elections should be about revival of the American spirt and competitiveness. They won't be though. We are on a path to economic decline that will be irreversible without the kind of commitment that put men on the moon a generation ago.

[wildcat]

I agree with our

Quote:

"if we ignore it, maybe it will go away."

approach

If any of you are at the library I think the rest of the article is worth a few minutes

While it may not be true in every survey or stat I do think it presents a good argument that things need to change.

If you didn't make it to the rest of the article a few points that I remember:

1) Says international students are staying home more often to go to school and the ones that do come to the US leave and go back home. From my experiences in school I see students from some countries that want to stay and others go. Just as an observation Phd programs are flooded with internationals and many international students receive big incentives to come here. One fellow student is in the Chinese military and he gets everything paid for and he will return after school.

2) US math scores on SAT/ACT/other ranks 29th vs Finland 1st - others. Says education system is failing. Students are not encouraged to go into engineering/science fields because it is not considered cool here

3) Needless to say it talks about the US auto makers; China is about to ship its first fleet of Chinese cars to be sold in US; Toyota has been cleaning up for some time.

4) Lastly about how our quality of life will decline as we lose our edge, experience low wage growth due to emerging markets that can do the same work for less and etc.

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by wildcat I agree with our *approach If any of you are at the library I think the rest of the article is worth a few minutes While it may not be true in every survey or stat I do think it presents a good argument that things need to change.* If you didn't make it to the rest of the article a few points that I remember: 1) Says international students are staying home more often to go to school and the ones that do come to the US leave and go back home.* From my experiences in school I see students from some countries that want to stay and others go.* Just as an observation Phd programs are flooded with internationals and many international students receive big incentives to come here.* One fellow student is in the Chinese military and he gets everything paid for and he will return after school. 2) US math scores on SAT/ACT/other ranks 29th vs Finland 1st - others.* Says education system is failing.* Students are not encouraged to go into engineering/science fields because it is not considered cool here* 3) Needless to say it talks about the US auto makers; China is about to ship its first fleet of Chinese cars to be sold in US; Toyota has been cleaning up for some time. 4) Lastly about how our quality of life will decline as we lose our edge, experience low wage growth due to emerging markets that can do the same work for less and etc.

International Students:* If you are a nonbeliever, take in a graduation at a major university (MA/PHD).* One look at the names on the program tells the story.* Similar at many med schools as well.

SAT scores: Still some good schools, but I think at least 50% of big city schools have been dumbed down to the breaking point.* Parents?? A fair amount of dumbing down there also.* Science uncool?* One of the most respected professions out there, but not one that is cool to kids. Parents again?* Huge shortage of doctors on the way. Docs today don't encourage their kids to do the same. Malpractice insurance and others. I have a front row seat to that with a kid in med school.

Auto Industry:* The unions wounded it. The question is - -will they save it.
The US can build great cars, and given a chance they will.

Quality of life: The future ain't what it used to be---Yogi I think.

[wildcat]

In our grad program we have close to 40% international

[razztazz]

Quote:

Rather than permutations of morality, the next national elections should be about revival of the American spirt and competitiveness. They won't be though. We are on a path to economic decline that will be irreversible without the kind of commitment that put men on the moon a generation ago

You're right but that moon thing didn't happen by itself. It was a highly centralized Big Government program. I don't know which side would want to take credit for that nowadays. It was a thinly veiled military R/D program and a
"Let's all wash each other's backs" deal to allow "free enterprise" to make lots of money with no real market being serviced. Lots of socialized funding and privatized profits and no market economy at all. But hey, it f'ing worked didn't it!? Sometimes I guess that's what it takes. But like I said, I don't know which side would be willing to glom onto anything like that.

[unclemick]

Duh?

Sputnik!!!!! Nixon/Krushchev kitchen debates. "We will bury you. Da Cold War. Duck and Cover.

Beat those durn Russians and the communist way of life.

"Whatever it takes to beat those B*st%#d's."

Heh, heh, heh, heh, heh

Dr Strangelove is still of my farovite movies!

[JB]

Yada. yada, yada... 'They' were saying the same things when I was in college in the 80s. Yup, at least 40% foreigners then too. Remember RCA? I didn't think I'd be able to find a decent job outside of Reagan's military machine. Even if our GDP growth slowed for many years, Americans would still be very well off.

[JPatrick]

Compared to what?

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by razztazz It was a thinly veiled military R/D program and a "Let's all wash each other's backs" deal to allow "free enterprise" to make lots of money with no real market being serviced.* Lots of socialized funding and privatized profits and no market economy at all.*

Yeah, but look at the spinoffs.

If the space program hadn't created an urgent need for "Tang", then Bill Gates would never have been able to stay awake all those nights in the 1970s messing with BASIC...

[JB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick Quote: Originally Posted by JB Even if our GDP growth slowed for many years, Americans would still be very well off. [quote Compared to what?

Compared to any society in the history of the world!! If we are forced to cut our resource consumption to compete, it will be a good thing.

[JPatrick]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB Compared to any society in the history of the world!!* If we are forced to cut our resource consumption to compete, it will be a good thing.

Better off than any society in the world?? That's a little fuzzy. Sure, we may be higher on the ladder, but there are many rungs and I'm not so sure we will be as high as we could be.
Shrinking GDP is not necessarily tied to our own (high) personal consumption of anything, although a shrinking GDP may result in a cut of our consumption. A cut most will not be as sanguine about as you are.

[wabmester]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB Even if our GDP growth slowed for many years, Americans would still be very well off.

Not Americans who invest in the stock market. Japan, anybody?

[JB]

Even after over 15 years of slow GDP growth Japan still has a very high per capita GDP. Probably second (behind the US) out of all populous countries. I'd say they are still 'well off'.

[wabmester]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB Even after over 15 years of slow GDP growth Japan still has a very high per capita GDP.* Probably second (behind the US) out of all populous countries.* I'd say they are still 'well off'.

Right, but GDP *growth* is largely what determines stock market returns.* *Their growth has been slow and even negative over the last 10 years, and that is reflected in their markets.* *I'll bet that they don't have a lot of early retirees there.

[haha]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JB Even after over 15 years of slow GDP growth Japan still has a very high per capita GDP.* Probably second (behind the US) out of all populous countries.* I'd say they are still 'well off'.

Very well off indeed. But it is dangerous to extrapolate from Japan to the US. For one thing, many Japanese could live for years off their savings. Not so here. For another, they have a much more disciplined, tractable and socially cooperative society. And last, they can still sell goods abroad profitably.

Look out Mama if we have a slump anything like Japan has had.

[SLC Tortfeasor]

Well, I already posted a new topic asking opinions about this website, and promised not to post a link for fear of being labeled a spammer, but this is too on-point not to post:

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2005/DR071905.html

[unclemick]

Very similar to the crap I read in the 70's - listening to which cost me a lot of money and dented what could have been a much larger nest egg.

I must must confess to reading Bill Bonner and company from time to time - at least this time around I don't act on it - in the old days - I had a job.

Goggle - Fiend's SuperBear Page - if you want to broaden your cross section of contrary views.

I'm a little gun shy - still have a couple gold coins and a worthless 10% interest in a Co gold mine.

This time it's De Gaul and the Norwegian widow.

I do putz a little - but that's lagniappe.

So this is the gloom and doom thread.* Hey, my kinda place!

America's Truth Deficit

By WILLIAM GREIDER
Washington

...The possibility that the United States can no longer afford globalization, at least not as it now functions, is what opinion leaders do not wish to discuss. A few brave dissenters have stated the matter plainly and called for significant policy shifts to stop the hemorrhaging. Warren Buffett, the legendary investor, says the United States is destined to become not an "ownership society," but a "sharecropper society." But his analysis, and others like it, are brushed aside.

An authentic debate might start by asking heretical questions: Why is the United States one of the few advanced economies that suffers from perennial trade deficits? Why do new trade agreements, despite official promises, always leave the United States with a deeper deficit hole, with another wave of jobs moving overseas?...