Fay

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

She's targeting us as of the last update. Hopefully she won't intensify too much after she leaves Cuba. We're battening down the hatches tomorrow. Depending on tides, timing, and exact couse, storm surge is a concern - especially as she starts to drift north of the Tampa Bay area, as the counterclockwise rotation pushes the Gulf into the Bay.

But a lot can change by then. If she stays a category 1 or low end 2, we'll likely ride it out. If she pushes a 3, we'll move inland to higher ground. My office is in a large, solid concrete building so that's a fall-back if any sudden surprises catch us off guard.

The old timers don't seem too concerned.

 

[bbbamI]

Wow Rich...I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!

 

[Goonie]

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you!

Me too!

 

[REWahoo]

Rich, if you had that Class A you could head for higher ground and still sleep in your own bed. Maybe next year.

Be safe...

 

[Martha]

It would be a drag to be stuck in your office for a couple of days.

Take care, Rich, Moe, Lazy, and that guy with too many numbers in his name (73ss494), Patrick, Sandy, GatorBuzz, pedorrero, and all the rest of you Floridians.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

as of now south florida (ie palm beach, broward & miami-dade) is out of danger (most likely some sqall lines & gusts at worst). but good luck rich & other west coasters.

so far each update has brought fay further west. hopefully you will not get a direct hit. if it is any consolation, at least lake o might get an overdue fillerup.

for those interested in watching fay's progress:

National Hurricane Center

just click on fay (on map on bottom) to pull up the cone of death

or on upper left hand side click on "satellite" then click on "loop" section of "water vapor" under atlantic of the "goes east/west hurricane sector" to get an overhead view.

or for land radar:

NWS radar image from Tampa Bay Area, FL

click on composite loop for a cool look at the rain bands as they pass through

we're working on setting up the cane-cam in doc's living room.

 

[CuppaJoe]

....
we're working on setting up the cane-cam in doc's living room.

Thanks, Lazy, I'd prefer that to a cam in his Off*ce.

Batten down, Rich, we've got our fingers crossed out west too.

 

[socca]

It's been interesting watching the forecasters mess around with the projected storm track. Yesterday they had it passing west of Tampa Bay and striking the Florida Panhandle. Now they've shifted the path eastward so it hits Sarasota and Tampa Bay head-on. Let's hope that Fay remains poorly organized after clearing Cuba.

Weatherunderground has some nice info:

Tropical Storm: Tracking Map : Weather Underground

For some reason, I feel like a pin in a bowling alley.

 

[OAG]

After 20 years in Florida and several of these things, which we NEVER evacuated for, this one looks very tame. Hopefully, it will pass to the East of you in which case you will get much less of the effect, but if it passes close to the West you will see more of the effect. If it passes over you as a 2 or a 3 (and it could be a 3 pretty easily if the eye stays off the west coast of Florida in the gulf) I would either hunker down at work or head to Jacksonville or up north. That is the extent of my amateur forecasting of this hurricane stay tuned!

Forecasting from a safe distance; now living here in Central Ohio.

Just checked this site http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/08/17/fay/index.html#cnnSTCOther1

Advice just changed RIT stay home, relax and forget this one.

 

[socca]

Each unit in my condo association paid a $27k special assessment last year for a new roof. It would be nice if those expensive tiles stay put. Surely, Fay wouldn't be that nasty

P.S. I grew up in Columbus (Worthington), and get back there regularly.

 

[Moemg]

Thanks everybody , not sure what our plans are . We have our hurricane supplies ready and will evacuate if forced . I'm not worried about the storm surge since my house is elevated . I'm more concerned about the wind .

 

[simple girl]

I'll be keeping a close eye on this one as well. We have close friends that live in Sarasota. In fact, just last week we all met up in Siesta Key and had a blast. Sure am glad the storm didn't come last week!

Keeping everyone in my thoughts and hoping Fay stays away!

 

[W2R]

Stay safe, Rich and everyone. We'll be hoping for the best!

 

[FinanceDude]

Batten the hatches down..........

Hey Fay, STAY AWAY!!!

Good luck to all in Florida.......

 

[FUEGO]

Hmmm... this may screw up my cheapo beach trip. I have two nights booked at $8.88 a night for the NC beach this weekend.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Ya dont forget to duck and cover. Hopefully it takes it easy on you folks.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

2 pm advisory

tropical storm fay headed north over cuba a little earlier than expected so trajectories have shifted east with landfall now possible in where charlie hit port charlotte/punta gorda in 2004. though with fay likely to attain only cat 1 status, the area is a low lying patchwork of canal systems and some water could build up if fay were to enter the bay.

the sooner fay heads for shore the better so that intensity does not build. projections make it out to be a fast moving storm, especially after hitting florida which you'd think would minimize damage but wilma was pretty quick too and put our lights out for two weeks a few years ago.

assuming the current track and that fay doesn't bob & weave on her way ashore, moemg, doc and others could be spared by being on the drier side of the storm as most of the heavy weather seems to be riding east of center. that is also very good for lake o which is still down i think about 2 feet.

 

[socca]

Thanks for the update. The storm seems to have some nice rotation now. I'm not too worried about it. I have the supreme confidence of someone who has never been in a tropical storm or hurricane.

 

[Moemg]

I was almost on the news today . They wanted to interview me and show pictures of the supplies in my trunk . I had three huge containers of pool chlorine and the reportor thought I was preparing my pool for the hurricane but I was only buying some because I had a coupon for a free jug that ended today . Plus if he looked closely at my supplies he would have seen that I had milk, wine ( for the storm anxiety ) , a bag of chips (for stress eating ) and peanut butter .

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Back in 2004 we sought higher ground at a friend's house. He is passionate wine collector, and what better time to crack open a few bottles. Hurricane howling outside, plenty of wine, good game of poker, his family and dog, Lynn and I and dog.. all in all it was one of the best hurricanes I ever had.

Too bad they're not all like that.

 

[W2R]

Back in 2004 we sought higher ground at a friend's house. He is passionate wine collector, and what better time to crack open a few bottles. Hurricane howling outside, plenty of wine, good game of poker, his family and dog, Lynn and I and dog.. all in all it was one of the best hurricanes I ever had.

Too bad they're not all like that.

Maybe you could make it a tradition to party at your friend's house when hurricanes threaten. You could show up on his doorstep, glass in hand, and see if he goes for it...

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

4:47 pm check out radar. looks like center is right over key west

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Key West, FL

5 pm advisory is in. not expected to reach even cat 1 status but expected to make landfall south of port charlotte as a tropical storm. looks like will pass just west of lake o. perfect landing. good news for most.

I was almost on the news today.

you were probably too calm and collected. you didn't have that panic quality that makes for such good television.

edit: pretty good squall line just passing overhead. my garden couldn't be happier. all this water. the bamboo is going to be growing like crazy over the next few days.

 

[Sinny]

I was almost on the news today . They wanted to interview me and show pictures of the supplies in my trunk . I had three huge containers of pool chlorine and the reportor thought I was preparing my pool for the hurricane but I was only buying some because I had a coupon for a free jug that ended today . Plus if he looked closely at my supplies he would have seen that I had milk, wine ( for the storm anxiety ) , a bag of chips (for stress eating ) and peanut butter .

Now, that's what I call a " Hurricane Preparedness Kit "!!

 

[Nords]

Rich, if you had that Class A you could head for higher ground and still sleep in your own bed. Maybe next year.

Storm surge indeed-- my impression of that area is "pancake flat". Heck, Rich, just moving from your bedroom to your current motor home will probably double your elevation.

If you evacuate, then when you return you're going to have to hope that you don't find REW's Class A parked in your driveway... and your yard... and part of the street...

 

[Rich_by_the_Bay]

Storm surge indeed-- my impression of that area is "pancake flat". Heck, Rich, just moving from your bedroom to your current motor home will probably double your elevation.

If you evacuate, then when you return you're going to have to hope that you don't find REW's Class A parked in your driveway... and your yard... and part of the street...

We're at a 10.5' elevation on my street, about a mile from the coast as the crow flies. It's low, but not like the many 3' or lower properties, many of which have houses that are raised by 3-4' off grade. A surge would have to be mighty to reach us, as in a Category 4 or 5, or maybe a bad 3.

If the winds, the tides, and the intensity of the storm all converge, we're swimming. Short of that we're not immune but pretty safe from rising water. Falling water, i.e. rain-generated flooding is always a risk.

And, yes, a nice Class A and no job would have had me outta here yesterday heading for some nice woodsy park out of harm's way. That 1000 mile round trip would have probably cost me about $650 or so in fuel - well worth it in this context.