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Future of real estate
Old 01-02-2010, 07:30 AM   #1
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Future of real estate

Maybe someone other than I will enjoy this article on the future of real estate from "Business Week." Thought it was pretty interesting myself, but we'll see
what some of the real estate gurus here think:



Where Will Housing Recover First? Would You Believe D.C.? - BusinessWeek


Agree with this guy or not?

I know they keep saying Las Vegas will really boom...but when? It's still so down that I wonder how many years it will take. After all, Houston fell in '82 and didn't rise for 20 some years. Is Vegas going to be the same?
My reasoning is that the boomers are starting to retire--and medical care is lacking in Vegas for them, which is a draw or, at the very least, a concern for most over 60 years old--so I'm thinking the growth might be slower than Vegas expects at least on the geezer end. Plus, when you look at the demographics you will see very few folks living there after 75, which, I'm guessing, is due to the lack of medical care. An old-time realtor there told me most folks after 75 leave Vegas to be near family or medical care. Is booming growth expected with the younger folks seeking jobs? Guess so.

Phoenix and Orlando: Long-time geezer spots, so that makes sense.

Atlanta: They keep writing articles that say that geezers are moving there but I'm not finding them particularly. Seems like Atlanta is a pretty young city to me overall...not that that can't change at some point. Maybe this prediction is based on all the new businesses coming to Atlanta and young people coming it?
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Old 01-02-2010, 04:10 PM   #2
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I know a couple of people here in PA flying down to FL to buy property. That is a high percentage since I don't know that many people. Maybe in a year or so it will bottom out. Jobs are the key, though IMHO.

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Old 01-02-2010, 07:22 PM   #3
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DC should recover first. Almost all the new jobs created over the past year, and probably in the next few years, are government jobs. Very many government jobs are based in or around the Beltway. Therefore, many employed people buying houses.

Not sure about the rest of his logic, though. All real estate is local, and I only know my area.
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Old 01-03-2010, 06:00 AM   #4
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Real Estate in Cape Coral, Fla., Is Far From a Recovery

Quote:
... highlighting specimens like this one: a white stucco house fronted by palm trees and topped by a Spanish tile roof on a canal emptying into the Gulf of Mexico. It last sold in 2005 for $850,000. Yours today for $273,000.

“How much cheaper does it have to go before you say, ‘Well, that’s just craziness,’ ” Mr. Joseph beseeches ...
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Old 01-03-2010, 09:50 AM   #5
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Plenty of $273,000 homes in DFW, bordering a storm sewer creek, emptying into another storm sewer creek, emptying into another storm sewer the Trinity River, which frequently floods homes south of Dallas.

And it's only 300 miles from the GOM...
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Old 01-03-2010, 10:09 AM   #6
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Heck, I bought my condo at the very end of of 2008 directly from the bank at a 55% discount from what it sold in 2004, and I still think I could have gotten another 10% off. I'd be happy it just rises with inflation while I live in it rent free.
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Old 01-04-2010, 07:02 AM   #7
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I'm really surprised that this post didn't have more comments, since so many here are concerned about real estate. Hmmmm...interesting.
Myself, I though the guy was pretty logical says she sticking her neck out.
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Old 01-04-2010, 10:58 AM   #8
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I'm really surprised that this post didn't have more comments, since so many here are concerned about real estate. Hmmmm...interesting.
Myself, I though the guy was pretty logical says she sticking her neck out.
Didn't want the topic to devolve into a political discussion about how we got into this mess.....
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Old 01-04-2010, 12:50 PM   #9
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Didn't want the topic to devolve into a political discussion about how we got into this mess.....
Just point in any direction...
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Old 01-04-2010, 04:08 PM   #10
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Every market will recover but WHEN is the question. Last time it took 12 years; my guess is this mess will take a little longer to clear. Still too much liquidity and we're 5 years from the top.

Between the 8k federal credit and city funding (7k to complete a first time home buyer program and 20k/unit in rehab funding for owner occupants) buyers are spending it like its monopoly money. So you can still buy and not have any skin in the game.

My realtor cited several examples where niave buyers where bidding REOs 50k OVER asking price.

Add to this the fraud which is occurring in the loan work out programs - and it's a toxic brew. Apparently many of the "short sales" are going to family members. Sales are facilitated by the same sharks that caused the mess to begin with. "Hardship" is often fabricated by oportunistic types who only wish to lower their payments.
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Old 01-04-2010, 04:31 PM   #11
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The DC area has the most recession-proof job base there is.
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Old 01-04-2010, 04:34 PM   #12
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The DC area has the most recession-proof job base there is.

...and growing every year!
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:25 PM   #13
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Took 20 years for Houston to turn around from the '80's horrid crash. Rough times for all down there then. Why did I ever stay? I still wonder about that.
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Old 01-04-2010, 05:33 PM   #14
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Took 20 years for Houston to turn around from the '80's horrid crash. Rough times for all down there then. Why did I ever stay? I still wonder about that.
Houston has its attractions despite the traffic and other negative aspects. Originally it was my first choice for a job location, but the job was in New Orleans so here I am. I remember the real estate crash in Houston back the the 1980's. Some of my friends in College Station were picking up investment properties in Sugarland for almost nothing, literally.
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Old 01-06-2010, 09:40 AM   #15
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Yes, W2R, I agree that Houston has it's attractions. I miss the Opera (the best one in America), the 3 mile track around Memorial Park where everybody goes (cinder all the way and ez on the joints) and the wonderful Mexican taquerias where you can eat fantastic food on so little money the most. My needs are varied as you can tell..ha!

But I would have been beside myself with joy if my job transferred me to New Orleans sans Katrina. What a city! Wow...don't feel it will ever go back to what it was, but hoping I'm wrong. But what a city! What history! What food!!! (and better I stay away from there then...)
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Old 01-06-2010, 09:55 AM   #16
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Well, I didn't know how much I would like New Orleans at the time, but you're right - - I ended up feeling very lucky that the job was in New Orleans instead of Houston! I hope New Orleans will recover eventually, too, but I am not holding my breath (good thing since it will be 5 years next summer).
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