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Old 05-01-2008, 05:38 PM   #21
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What year of Hillman? I had a 1959 Minx (my first car) back in 1970; frog green and re-wired with all the same color wire.

59. See avatar, that's it.
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Old 05-01-2008, 06:18 PM   #22
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So all you guys claiming GW is 'over' or disproven because it was colder where you live over the last few months, does that mean if there is a three month warming trend you will be the first yelling about GW happening??
No! That is the IPCC's job.
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Old 05-01-2008, 07:27 PM   #23
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59. See avatar, that's it.
It looks more like a Sunbeam Tiger (same factory). Mine was a sedan and was one breath away from the scrap yard. It made a good learning car but for reliable transportation; not so good.
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Old 05-01-2008, 08:14 PM   #24
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So all you guys claiming GW is 'over' or disproven because it was colder where you live over the last few months, does that mean if there is a three month warming trend you will be the first yelling about GW happening??
No, but I have gotten fed up with all that talk from the GW alarmists. News item after news item, 'little Ellie May says the birds are here earlier every year', ' Max has to put away his snowmobile earlier this spring...', "Grandma Wilson doesn't ever remember it being this warm on Christmas Day (never mind that Grandma Wilson doesn't rememeber what she had for breakfast!)', and on , and on, and on.

That frustration does make it easy to try to toss it back and see what the response is. It's probably meaningless, long term trends are what is important.

I did hear another science podcast out of Australia today. The guy was talking about how we had a cooling period from (IIRC) about 1750 - 1890. So, all this glacier melting stuff may just be the result of the ice building up over that cooling period, and we are returning to something closer to 'normal'.

Now, T-AL has a good graph of warming over the past 1000 years, but let's look back further:






Climate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maybe we are right on schedule?

-ERD50
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Old 05-01-2008, 08:39 PM   #25
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Actually I think there is a direct relation of GW to the subprime mortgage mess. All those homeowners were sweating the payments and overheating the atmosphere. Now that the FEDS have it all under control things are cooling off a bit. Things will cool even more when we get our stimulus checks, just watch.
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Old 05-01-2008, 08:54 PM   #26
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No, but I have gotten fed up with all that talk from the GW alarmists. News item after news item, 'little Ellie May says the birds are here earlier every year', ' Max has to put away his snowmobile earlier this spring...', "Grandma Wilson doesn't ever remember it being this warm on Christmas Day (never mind that Grandma Wilson doesn't rememeber what she had for breakfast!)', and on , and on, and on.

That frustration does make it easy to try to toss it back and see what the response is. It's probably meaningless, long term trends are what is important.

I did hear another science podcast out of Australia today. The guy was talking about how we had a cooling period from (IIRC) about 1750 - 1890. So, all this glacier melting stuff may just be the result of the ice building up over that cooling period, and we are returning to something closer to 'normal'.

Now, T-AL has a good graph of warming over the past 1000 years, but let's look back further:






Climate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Maybe we are right on schedule?

-ERD50
So are you in the
isn't happening
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Old 05-01-2008, 09:05 PM   #27
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No, but I have gotten fed up with all that talk from the GW alarmists. News item after news item, 'little Ellie May says the birds are here earlier every year', ' Max has to put away his snowmobile earlier this spring...', "Grandma Wilson doesn't ever remember it being this warm on Christmas Day (never mind that Grandma Wilson doesn't rememeber what she had for breakfast!)', and on , and on, and on.

That frustration does make it easy to try to toss it back and see what the response is. It's probably meaningless, long term trends are what is important.
Exactly. The anecdotal stuff is meaningless whether it support the "getting hotter" or "getting colder" camp. We're talking about a fraction of a degree worldwide here. That's NOT to say that a fraction of a degree isn't important--it could be, in the big scheme of things, over many years. But observations/anecdotes of when the flowers bloom, how much snow we had this year, or how thick the caterpillar coats have gotten are entirely irrelevant.
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Old 05-01-2008, 09:24 PM   #28
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These "scientists" crack me up! Now they try to spin cooling into warming. "It's just one part of the cycle", they now exclaim. Al forgot to get the headline writers on board:

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They're scientists, not "scientists."

What's so hard to understand about short-term fluctuations as part of a long-term trend?
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Old 05-01-2008, 09:37 PM   #29
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They're scientists, not "scientists."

What's so hard to understand about short-term fluctuations as part of a long-term trend?
I don't think that's possible It never ever happens in other complex systems such as the stock market for example
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Old 05-01-2008, 09:46 PM   #30
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So are you in the
isn't happening
isn't our fault
is a good thing
can't do anything to stop it
camp?
Whoa there! THAT is a big jump from what I said.

Here, I summed it up a while back, no need to repeat it all:

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...5&postcount=42

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Old 05-01-2008, 09:53 PM   #31
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What's so hard to understand about short-term fluctuations as part of a long-term trend?
The last Ice Age was about 10,000 years ago.

T-Al's chart shows warming in the last 50-100 years.

So, what is 'long term' and what is 'short term'? Isn't one view of this a 50-100 year short-term fluctuation within a long term trend? And, since it has been warmer in the past, maybe this is just part of that long term trend? Or maybe not? How can one know?

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Kyoto Treaty BS
Old 05-01-2008, 09:57 PM   #32
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Kyoto Treaty BS

Wherein the signatory participants are making *three times* the "pollution" emissions of the US, or non-signatories.

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Old 05-01-2008, 09:58 PM   #33
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I'd certainly expect some decade-long up and down cycles. That says nothing about the long term trend.
Nice graph , is there a similar graph that shows solar output during
the same time frame?
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:09 PM   #34
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Nice graph , is there a similar graph that shows solar output during
the same time frame?
How would it have been measured?

DD
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:24 PM   #35
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Doubling CO2 from 250 ppm to 500ppm MEANS from .00025% to .00050%. It's a trace gas! (I may have the wrong amount of zeros in the numbers - itty bitty amounts are hard on the old brain)

Water vapor is somewhere around 90% of the greenhouse effect, depending on whether it is humidity (gee, it feels hot), or clouds (feels colder, doesn't it)
Water vapor accounts for no more than ~70% of the greenhouse effect. Increased CO2 causes increased water vapor, which causes a positive loop for global warming.
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Old 05-01-2008, 11:35 PM   #36
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How would it have been measured?

DD
Don't know, perhaps something in nature that recorded the output of
the sun similar to the rings on a tree.
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Old 05-02-2008, 12:19 AM   #37
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The last Ice Age was about 10,000 years ago.

T-Al's chart shows warming in the last 50-100 years.

So, what is 'long term' and what is 'short term'? Isn't one view of this a 50-100 year short-term fluctuation within a long term trend? And, since it has been warmer in the past, maybe this is just part of that long term trend? Or maybe not? How can one know?

-ERD50
I think my husband explained how one can know in a thread a few months ago. The causes of warming in the past are fairly well known, and those causes aren't in play to explain the current warming.

He's out of town this week and arriving home late on Friday, but I'll try and remember to point him at this thread over the weekend. If there are any graphs out there of long-term solar variability, he'll know about them, on account of that's part of his field of research.
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Oregon's Current Ice Age
Old 05-02-2008, 12:26 AM   #38
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Oregon's Current Ice Age

Picture is worth a thousand words.


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Old 05-02-2008, 07:07 AM   #39
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Nice graph , is there a similar graph that shows solar output during
the same time frame?
This might give a little insight into historic solar output and how it might be measured.

Image:Solar-cycle-data.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 05-02-2008, 08:27 AM   #40
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I think my husband explained how one can know in a thread a few months ago. The causes of warming in the past are fairly well known, and those causes aren't in play to explain the current warming.
Hold on there. I didn't bring up causes, I simply asked how do you look at that graph and tell if it is a short term fluctuation or a trend.

Forget whether the graph represents temperature or population or auto casualties or anything. People were trying to make inferences from the graph itself. I expressed doubt in anyone's ability to do that from the graph.

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