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Old 05-02-2008, 11:04 AM   #41
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Picture is worth a thousand words.


PrestoPundit
I have lived in Oregon 31 years, this is the first year we have still had
snow in the hills around my house in may.
Usually its gone by march.
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Old 05-02-2008, 04:47 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Hold on there. I didn't bring up causes, I simply asked how do you look at that graph and tell if it is a short term fluctuation or a trend.

Forget whether the graph represents temperature or population or auto casualties or anything. People were trying to make inferences from the graph itself. I expressed doubt in anyone's ability to do that from the graph.

-ERD50
Look at the graph in post 18. There are fluctuations from year to year, but over time the trend is clear even though the year-to-year data aren't always in the same direction. The trend in that graph is a slow decline followed by a rapid increase.
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Old 05-02-2008, 05:33 PM   #43
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Look at the graph in post 18. There are fluctuations from year to year, but over time the trend is clear even though the year-to-year data aren't always in the same direction. The trend in that graph is a slow decline followed by a rapid increase.
Agreed. Now, how does that relate to the graph in post 24?

< this should take you to #24>>>
Global Cooling

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Old 05-03-2008, 09:44 PM   #44
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Well, in that graph you can see some pretty strong trends but there are still variations in the year-on-year data. However, that isn't the graph that's being referred to in this paper. I looked at the Nature article, and the graph shows three projections for surface temperature change in northern Europe over the 54-year period starting in 1996. In each case, the ending temperature was higher than the starting temperature but there were fluctuations on an approximately decadal basis within that general upward trend. The ending temperatures for all three projections were higher than the peaks of the decadal variations; the starting temperatures for two of the three projections were lower than the troughs of the decadal variations.

If you can get hold of a copy of the review article describing the research, it's the 1 May 2008 issue of Nature, volume 453, page 43-35; the research article itself is on page 84-88 of the same issue and has a bunch more graphs.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:34 PM   #45
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However, that isn't the graph that's being referred to in this paper. I looked at the Nature article...
You lost me - what paper is being referred to? By Whom? What Nature article?

-ERD50
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:46 PM   #46
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According to NOAA, this spring hasn't been especially cold. Large amounts of snow reflect high precipitation, not necessarily abnormally low temperatures.
Hmmm, when a certain former vice president can show pictures of less snow on a mountain - it is presented as unquestionable evidence of global warming.

But when a skeptic tries to associate more snow with global cooling - it is just dismissed.

How 'convenient'. -ERD50
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:51 PM   #47
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You lost me - what paper is being referred to? By Whom? What Nature article?

-ERD50
The Nature article being referred to in the link in post 17. That's the article that talks about variations within a longer trend.

Here are the journal details and the abstract.

Letter

Nature 453, 84-88 (1 May 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature06921; Received 25 June 2007; Accepted 14 March 2008

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

N. S. Keenlyside1, M. Latif1, J. Jungclaus2, L. Kornblueh2 & E. Roeckner2
  1. <LI id=a1 minmax_bound="true">Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, D-24105 Kiel, Germany
  2. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrae 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Correspondence to: N. S. Keenlyside1 Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to N.S.K. (Email: nkeenlyside@ifm-geomar).


Top of page Abstract

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
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Old 05-03-2008, 10:55 PM   #48
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Hmmm, when a certain former vice president can show pictures of less snow on a mountain - it is presented as unquestionable evidence of global warming.

But when a skeptic tries to associate more snow with global cooling - it is just dismissed.

How 'convenient'. -ERD50
Depends on the conditions. Less snow could be being caused by higher temperatures (if they were such that they were causing melting that wasn't happening before) or by less precipitation. Depending on the situation for the mountain in question, he could have been perfectly correct.

More snow is caused by more precipitation or by lower temperatures. Unless you're dealing with unusually low temperatures, especially in areas that are borderline for snow in the first place, you can't just assume that heavy or prolonged snowfall is a function of overall cooling. We had a lot more snow in early 2007 than early 2008, but I think the latter had overall slightly lower temperatures.
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Old 05-04-2008, 03:38 AM   #49
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We banter about this... but it is a serious subject. Man made, natural causes, natural causes exacerbated by man's pollution and gases. Any combination could be disastrous.

Being green is not a bad thing (in terms of alternative energy sources).
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Old 05-04-2008, 05:09 AM   #50
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Being green is not a bad thing (in terms of alternative energy sources).
But, that's not necessarily true. If choosing these alternative energy sources were cheaper than oil. we'd be using them already. Less efficiency means lower standards of living, and can drive up other societal costs. Sure, it makes sense to do the common sense stuff, but if we increase the cost of energy by 20%, that cost gets embedded in nearly every product. That doesn't just mean fewer Gucci loafers fro the rich, it means less medicine for granny.
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Old 05-04-2008, 05:54 AM   #51
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That doesn't just mean fewer Gucci loafers fro the rich, it means less medicine for granny.
How about food riots and quotas on how much rice you can purchase?
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Old 05-04-2008, 09:24 AM   #52
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We banter about this... but it is a serious subject. Man made, natural causes, natural causes exacerbated by man's pollution and gases. Any combination could be disastrous.

Being green is not a bad thing (in terms of alternative energy sources).
Chinaco Little - don't worry the sky is not falling.

You need to trust in the ingenuity of mankind. When there is a real problem - man will solve it.
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Old 05-04-2008, 09:48 AM   #53
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I agree that this issue has been politicized, sensationalized, and media-ized to the extent that it's hard to get any good information.

But this thread doesn't make a lot of sense to me since everyone agrees that trends over just a few years aren't significant.
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Old 05-04-2008, 03:25 PM   #54
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How about food riots and quotas on how much rice you can purchase?
Yes, just one situation made worse by a government imposed "solution." Let's be darn sure of the problem and then incrementally implement some judicial fixes--and study the intended and unintended consequences-- rather than charge in a particular direction because screamers are shouting about an imminent disaster.
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Old 05-04-2008, 07:23 PM   #55
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Chinaco Little - don't worry the sky is not falling.

You need to trust in the ingenuity of mankind. When there is a real problem - man will solve it.

Is the sky falling? Oh no!!!
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Old 05-04-2008, 07:30 PM   #56
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Chinaco Little - don't worry the sky is not falling.

You need to trust in the ingenuity of mankind. When there is a real problem - man will solve it.
Wonder if that's what the dinosaurs thought
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