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Old 08-27-2008, 11:55 AM   #21
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as of this writing gustav is expected to make u.s. landfall as a cat 3 in the norleans area but such predictions only become accurate enough to consider seriously within a day or two beforehand, and then, only when steering currents are strong enough to maintain the predicted trajectory.

watching these things over many years, i've found it best if they point at you early because that usually means you won't get hit.

as to gulf water temps, if you ever did much ocean swimming you've noticed passing through pockets of warm and cold water, even within short distances. proximity to the caribbean sea and interoceanic currents exaggerate that effect in the gulf. so a hurricane's strength in part depends upon over what pools it might pass.

NOAA Scientists Study How Hurricanes Intensify Over Deep Warm Pools of Gulf Water

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The Loop Current is a stream of warm Caribbean water that enters the Yucatan Straits, meanders northward, sometimes extending to the Gulf Coast, and exits into the Florida Straits after a sharp turn around the Florida Keys where it becomes the Florida Current. Deep warm water eddies in the Gulf are spun off from the Loop Current as it goes through its 10-14 month cycle.

Warm eddies...are a tremendous source of energy to a storm that crosses their path, say Shay and Black. The hurricane winds draw heat from the water to fuel the storm, mixing the warm waters with the cooler waters below as the storm passes by. Because the layer of warm water is so thick within the Loop Current and eddy, the ocean surface experiences less storm-induced cooling than it would outside the these features, allowing for further intensification of the storm.
here are gulf temperatures aug 27th per Oceanweather, Inc

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Old 08-27-2008, 12:01 PM   #22
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The waters in the Gulf aren't that warm. They are only in the 80's that in itself will limit the size of Gustav and probably be very limiting on hurricanes later in the season.
I wasn't talking about the whole Gulf, I was referring to eddies from the loop current that runs up through the Yucatan Channel. The loop current goes into the GoM and then east toward Florida where it is called the Florida Current.

The loop current is very warm, much warmer than the rest of the GoM water.

Every now and then it sheds an eddie that spins off in the opposite direction of the current flow and goes towards Texas or Louisiana.

You can read about the loop current here
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1175%2F1520-0485(1999)029%3C1180:LCEPIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2&ct=1&SESS ID=3104b4c832f8bed86fde1d682ff65206

What happens when an eddie occurs during hurricane season and a storm passes right over the eddie is that the extremely warm waters are like a supercharger for the 'cane. From Wikipedia:
Quote:
An example of how deep warm water, including the Loop Current, can allow a hurricane to strengthen, if other conditions are also favorable, is Hurricane Camille, which made landfall on the Mississippi Gulf Coast in August of 1969. Camille formed in the deep warm waters of the Caribbean, which enabled it to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane in one day. It rounded the western tip of Cuba, and its path took it directly over the Loop Current, all the way north towards the coast, during which time the rapid intensification continued. Camille became a Category 5 hurricane, with an intensity rarely seen, and extremely high winds that were maintained until landfall (190 mph / 305 km/h sustained winds were estimated to have occurred in a very small area to the right of the eye).
You can read more at wikipedia and see how the eddie, or the loop current itself, strengthened Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Andrew and Opal. Loop Current - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If Gustav comes up the Yucatan Channel he will be riding the Loop Current and growing. If he continues toward Texas and Louisiana, he will encounter at least the eddie that was spun off in July, and he may also encounter an older one closer to the Texas coast.

My uncle rode Camille out about 30 miles north of the coast in Mississippi. He was a Civil Defense official and when we moved there the next year he took us on a tour and told us stories. This was a guy who fought his way out of the Chosin Reservoir, and I still remember what he said about Camille: "I'll never stay again for a storm that big."

I left for Rita - along with a couple of million other people. That's an experience I don't want to duplicate, and if I leave for another storm in the future it will be with a great deal of hesitation. But two things influenced that decision. I went to the New Orleans area a few days after Katrina and helped out some hard-pressed police, and I had access to the damage estimates that were being projected for my suburb that was, at one point, right in the path of Rita when she was a 5. I'm fairly certain my house wouldn't stand up very well to a 140 MPH wind. Rita was more intense than Katrina, and had gusts of almost 240 MPH. Luckily for a lot of people she turned toward a less inhabited area and weakened down to a 3. Even then she caused $11 billion in damage.

I've worked outside in a direct hit category 3 before. That was interesting but not too scary. If I didn't have to be outside I would definitely stay indoors. But a Cat 5 coming right at me gets my respect.

I got stuck in a gas line a few weeks ago when some little hurricane was wandering around offshore (Dolly?). The only reason I was there was because I was on "E". I had a good laugh at all the people freaking out at the last minute, Dolly didn't concern me at all. But Gustav has my attention - he has potential.
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Old 08-27-2008, 12:37 PM   #23
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I agree with you on respecting the hurricanes. I start respecting when they hit three. Anything less than that is not much more than a big thunder storm.

As for the temps in the Gulf if you look at the temps during the summer of 2005, IIRC, they were in the low 90's now they're in the mid 80's that is a big difference. Even if the storms ride the eddies the overall warmth of the water will not allow for a huge Cat 4 or 5 storm to develop.
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Old 08-27-2008, 12:57 PM   #24
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One of my favorite books was Isaac's Storm, by Eric Larsen. It is a fascinating account of the devastating Galveston hurricane and the earliest efforts of our nation's meteorologists and hurricane forecasters. A memorable tale, and one I hope is not repeated with Gustav.

Like Lazy, I do not fear so much for the first place it is forecast at 5 days, but the place that is forecast at 2-3 days.
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Old 08-27-2008, 01:09 PM   #25
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Oh Yeah - but what does the Slosh model say - go on 3 like before Katrina?

Or does nobody talk about the computer slosh model anymore?

Even though the tornado siren sounds like it's in my living room when it goes off - we've only been to the basement once in going on 3 yrs up here.

6-7 evacuations as in leave town and 2 behind the levee hurricane parties in 30 yrs when I lived in New Orleans.

heh heh heh -It was last yrs ice storm(4 days no power) that sent my frozen tush visit Blondie in Alabama.
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Old 08-27-2008, 01:48 PM   #26
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Governor Jindal and our Parish Presidents seem to have the situation much better in hand than was the case for Katrina. We shall see, if/when Gustav affects us.

At work, we updated our emergency locator information yesterday, and were asked if we could be emergency volunteers. Today we were told that ALL the shades have to come down over ALL the windows in our building until Gustav is no longer a threat. Like cloth over the windows, and not looking out of them towards the south, is really going to protect us somehow.

I don't think I have ever seen this much preparation for a storm that isn't even in the Gulf of Mexico yet. I have been puttering around the house doing a few things in advance, as well. It wouldn't hurt for me to get an oil change and gas for my car, and so on.

I might have jinxed things - - I bought a new desktop computer and wireless router today, since my previous (ancient) ones got fried. I suppose this wasn't the most sensible timing for buying electronics.
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I went to the New Orleans area a few days after Katrina and helped out some hard-pressed police.
Thank you! What can I say. We are so grateful for those like you who bravely helped us after the storm.
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Old 08-27-2008, 01:55 PM   #27
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WQhen I hear Gustav, I think:

TOM LEHRER - ALMA LYRICS

Gustav and Walter and Franz
Classic tune. Go Tom.
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Old 08-27-2008, 01:59 PM   #28
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You could pick up a couple of these...one for your phone and cable modem and one for the computer. It wont run a computer for very long (8-10 minutes), but it'll run a phone and a cable modem for a while, maybe 1-2 hours. At least it'd let you check out a couple of sites or send off a couple of emails and shut the machine off rather than have the power just knock it down.

Buy the APC UPS/Surge Protector and other Surge protectors & UPS at circuitcity.com

Not bad for $20.

Way better than a power strip. Surge protection and noise filtering. I'm ordering a couple for our phone and our spare DVR. We get a lot of 2-5 second power "blinks" that flip the computer off and reboot the dvr...usually right in the middle of a good show.

Sams Club also has a bigger one with a longer run time for $29.
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:08 PM   #29
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Thanks - - I'll check those out.

I wasn't too worried about my old equipment getting fried, since they probably weren't worth the $20 to protect them. But today I got one of those nice $499 Dells from Best Buy (not on sale or unusually cheap, but I have it in hand which is nice). Wouldn't be happy if that fried.

In a worst case scenario, which of course is highly unlikely, I would be more worried about water than power spikes. We've all seen the 2005 footage.
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:16 PM   #30
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Like Lazy, I do not fear so much for the first place it is forecast at 5 days, but the place that is forecast at 2-3 days.
Exactly!

Things are getting a bit somber around here, but I keep telling people that we can't be too certain about what Gustav will do until he at least enters the Gulf.

You could cut the tension with a knife! After Katrina, NOBODY seems to be especially jolly in our office when hurricanes approach (not that federal scientists and regulators are a particularly devil-may-care bunch to begin with).
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:23 PM   #31
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Exactly!
...(not that federal scientists and regulators are a particularly devil-may-care bunch to begin with).
What? And here I was imagining whoopiee cushions and fake doggie do-do were office staples.
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:31 PM   #32
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Well just back from a round of golf. Yup, finally got to play again. Soggy as heck though. Looks like next week might get a little soggier. 180 mile from the gulf coast, but I don't look forward to hurricanes either. Power out for a week when Katrina came through. I'll probably stop by the store tomorrow and pick up some bottle water, snacks, batteries, etc... just in case. Oh yes, fill up the Trailblazer as gas was a headache to get last time too.
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:52 PM   #33
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What? And here I was imagining whoopiee cushions and fake doggie do-do were office staples.
You guessed it! Wait till I pull out my clown nose and green wig! Working here is just a barrel of laughs.
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Old 08-27-2008, 02:59 PM   #34
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Well just back from a round of golf. Yup, finally got to play again. Soggy as heck though. Looks like next week might get a little soggier. 180 mile from the gulf coast, but I don't look forward to hurricanes either. Power out for a week when Katrina came through. I'll probably stop by the store tomorrow and pick up some bottle water, snacks, batteries, etc... just in case. Oh yes, fill up the Trailblazer as gas was a headache to get last time too.
We drove through your area on our way back on September 4, 2005, and saw what Katrina did even way up there. So, I know what you mean. We got gas at a Pilot truck stop in Jackson but we searched for quite a while in order to find it - - most gas stations were closed, probably due to no power. It sounds like a good idea for you to get water, snacks, batteries, gas, cash, and all that good stuff, obviously.

Frank is already talking about making reservations in Springfield. I told him he should hold off, since we don't know if/when we might need them. Besides, I don't think we'll have any problem finding a room that far north.
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Old 08-27-2008, 06:01 PM   #35
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Frank is already talking about making reservations in Springfield. I told him he should hold off, since we don't know if/when we might need them. Besides, I don't think we'll have any problem finding a room that far north.
Friend of ours out seeing his 94 yr old Mom in Hood River, OR called his daughter to start stocking the RV( they live south of Baton Rouge) - he'll be back Sunday.

My friend's Grandson on his second job as a security guard got a call/offer for 24hrs work inside the levee(aka New Orleans) should Gustav head that way. He lives in Chalmette.

So it's getting attention early.

heh heh heh -
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Old 08-27-2008, 08:28 PM   #36
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Gas prices jumped 20 cents a gallon this afternoon. I found one on the way home at the lower rate so I filled upped. If the hurricane keeps it's current path and does come up our way, you can bet they will jack up the prices even more next week. Sucks.
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Old 08-27-2008, 09:29 PM   #37
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So it's getting attention early.
Sure is. They have extended local TV news into what is usually prime time shows, and are breaking in for updates every few minutes when other shows are on. At the moment, I am watching the entire Orleans Parish council announcing that people should prepare. Oh, now the Corps of Engineers is telling us how safe we are.

But like one radio talk show host said to someone from the Corps, on the air this afternoon, "When the Corps has lied to us so many times, why should we believe anything you say?" Nobody believes those guys any more.
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Old 08-27-2008, 09:31 PM   #38
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Gas prices jumped 20 cents a gallon this afternoon. I found one on the way home at the lower rate so I filled upped. If the hurricane keeps it's current path and does come up our way, you can bet they will jack up the prices even more next week. Sucks.
Oh, shoot. I was going to get gas on the way home from work, but decided to buy it on the way to work in the morning. Hope it doesn't rise 20 cents over night. I only have to drive to work and back once (3 mile round trip) before I either evacuate or not. They are saying that Friday will be the day when we should evacuate, if need be. But like with Katrina, the storm won't even be in the Gulf on Friday.
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Old 08-28-2008, 07:46 AM   #39
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Hey, latest tracking shows this thing moving a little west of New Orleans. Still not good for our N.O. friends but maybe it will continue moving west. Still way too early to know what it will do.
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Old 08-28-2008, 07:56 AM   #40
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ya, also they are now predicting a cat 2 instead of cat 3.

but just in case anxiety levels weren't high enough, here comes t.d. 8. check out the track. this one's gonna be fun. i think maybe we'll send it up to new york for a change.



named after gustav, i guess it starts with an "h". here's your opportunity to help name a hurricane. i'm voting for harry the hurricane because i like alliterations.
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