Gustav

[socca]

We need a thread for hand-wringing and teeth grinding regarding the next tropical storm headed for the Gulf and/or Atlantic coasts.

You can monitor its progress here:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical.../at200807.html

[UncleHoney]

Looks like Gustav will be nearing the gulf by next weekend. Should be worth a $6-$7 spike in the price of oil, just in time for the holiday weekend.

[Khan]

WQhen I hear Gustav, I think:

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.n...256A7D00256E43

Gustav and Walter and Franz

[lazygood4nothinbum]

coming back from a low point of 8.82 ft from the summer 2007 drought to about 11.24 ft just before fay to 13.41 ft today, lake okeechobee is now only 0.63 ft below its seasonal norm level.

gustav might be just what we need to complete restoration of lake water levels, though as of now it looks like it will pass well to our south. still, never too early to make everyone's anxiety levels rise.

[Purron]

I don't like the looks of this one. Here's the latest track prediction from the National Hurricane Center: National Hurricane Center

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Somewhat related, I was surprised to read an article the other day that said that the levies and flood controls that were reconstructed after Katrina arent worth spit and may actually provide a weaker level of flood protection than the ones that failed. Many areas offer only 100 year protection or worse.

Against that set of facts, most people living in the area think that they're sitting behind better protection than they had pre-katrina. I think the article said something like 1/3 of the homes in the area that flooded will flood again over the next decade or two.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny Somewhat related, I was surprised to read an article the other day that said that the levies and flood controls that were reconstructed after Katrina arent worth spit and may actually provide a weaker level of flood protection than the ones that failed. Many areas offer only 100 year protection or worse. Against that set of facts, most people living in the area think that they're sitting behind better protection than they had pre-katrina.

I have not encountered one single person in the whole area who thinks that, other than those who moved here after Katrina and don't know any better.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Thats good to know. I wish I could find the article (something on AP) but I cant. It basically made it sound like everyone in the area thought they were safe and had been duped into thinking that.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Ah, there it is...
AP: New Orleans Repeating Deadly Levee Mistakes

[W2R]

CFB, from that article:

Quote:

concern about levee safety was dropping off the list of top worries, replaced by crime, incompetent leadership and corruption.

Other than the survey that gave these results, they quoted a very few individuals that they managed to dig up.

I am thinking that the above quote doesn't mean that people aren't concerned about levee safety. I would have said the same. We have multiple serious problems and some may destroy the city before "Katrina II" shows up (unless that is Gustav).

As for me, I'm hightailing it out of here as soon as I am eligible to retire. I made that decision in October, 2005, but for now I am chained here by the proverbial "golden handcuffs".

People that I work with, from top scientists and federal regulators to the black ladies in hairnets running the snack bar who I just bought my boiled egg and banana lunch from a few minutes ago, have already started reserving hotel rooms for the evacuation, getting medicines they might need, and packing their stuff.

[Sarah in SC]

Want2, that is good news, I know that for a number of years after Hugo, we all were WAY more motivated to get our stuff together for evacuations than before. Now, it has been so many years and there are so many new people here, that it will be a carnival sideshow to get these people outta town.
Unfortunately, the folks in Florida seem to be staying in pretty good practice.

[Purron]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Want2retire CFB, from that article: I am thinking that doesn't mean that people aren't concerned about levee safety. We have multiple serious problems and some may destroy the city before "Katrina II" shows up (unless that is Gustav). As for me, I'm hightailing it out of here as soon as I am eligible to retire. I made that decision in October, 2005, but for now I am chained here by the proverbial "golden handcuffs". People that I work with, from top scientists and federal regulators to the black ladies in hairnets running the snack bar who I just bought my boiled egg and banana lunch from a few minutes ago, have already started reserving hotel rooms for the evacuation, getting medicines they might need, and packing their stuff.

Wow W2R, are folks really worried about Gustav there already? It's very far away and could take many different paths at this point. In any event, I'll be hoping this doesn't end up being a major storm.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Purron Wow W2R, are folks really worried about Gutav there already? It's very far away and could take many different paths at this point. In any event, I'll be hoping this doesn't end up being a major storm.

Of course it can take many different paths! Or, it could even stall where it is. We usually have a lot better idea after a storm is in the Gulf. Katrina entered the Gulf on Friday the 26th, and then impacted New Orleans the following Monday. Chances that Gustav will land in New Orleans are quite small at present.

This is S.O.P. for people living here, always has been for some and many more are nervous about the levees and such, after Katrina. People quickly forgot that before Katrina hundreds of thousands of people successfully evacuated from here, despite the fact that there are only a handful of roads out of this water-surrounded area.

Those who don't have relatives in Baton Rouge or north Louisiana usually reserve a hotel room, and THEN wait to find out if the storm is a big one coming this way. Then they cancel it without evacuating when the storm doesn't arrive. Refilling prescriptions likewise is a no-brainer. Most people dust off their hurricane list but even those planning to evacuate don't pack too far in advance. Some do pack early. I generally pile my stuff in a heap on my kitchen table after a strong storm enters the Gulf, so that I can toss it in the trunk and get out in a hurry if I need to, to beat the (horrendous?) traffic.

[Leonidas]

This one might be one to worry about, although it looks like it's going to Mexico at the moment. This sucker intensified from a TD to a Cat 1 in 16 hours, tying the record for the shortest time for a storm to go from first advisory to Cat 1. These things are so unpredictable though, a lot of them look really scary at first and then go into a weakening phase before rebuilding and that's when they hit shore. Still, it's definitely time to get the checklist out.

Worried about Gustav already? Oh yes indeed. If you live along the GoM hurricanes are just a fact of life. For those of us who don't live right on the water we don't really worry about a storm unless it's going to hit at Cat 3 or above. And, to be honest, I don't really worry about a Cat 3 unless there is a concern that it is going to intensify before hitting land. A Cat 4 can do some serious damage far inland and a Cat 5 is going to bring some incredible destruction far from the beaches. Thank God Cat 5 landfalls are rare.

Now, if you live in a bowl shaped city that is mostly below the water level, and that city has been run for years by politicians and civil servants who are primarily concerned with "stealing all we can from every public project, and then steal a little more", you run like hell.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leonidas Now, if you live in a bowl shaped city that is mostly below the water level, and that city has been run for years by politicians and civil servants who are primarily concerned with "stealing all we can from every public project, and then steal a little more", you run like hell.

Yep, that's "Plan A". "Plan B" is to run faster and further.

Of course, my real "Plan A" is to leave for good, and let the crooked politicians and criminals finish destroying what is left after I'm gone, but I can't do that for another 438 days.

[Rustic23]

Looks like the 5 day forecast says New Orleans or upper texas coast. There is a high building in north of cuba. If it does it should keep it south till it is in the gulf.

[Leonidas]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustic23 Looks like the 5 day forecast says New Orleans or upper texas coast. There is a high building in north of cuba. If it does it should keep it south till it is in the gulf.

The cone is a rough approximation based on the different models they use. Right now one model says Gustav will dissipate, another says it will do a double hit on Mexico (Yucatan and then south of Brownsville), another says upper Texas Coast and the last said Louisiana. Too early to tell. There's other models, but these are the ones that should be working best for this particular storm.

Haiti took a lot off Gustav and he's back down to a TS without an eye. If he scrubs along the southern coast of Cuba it could weaken even more. Sucks for my brothers and sisters at Gitmo though.

Once he clears Cuba and gets in that channel between Cuba and the Yucatan is the time to pay attention. I'm hoping he goes west and even south to blow some trees down in the jungle of the Yucatan. But, if he heads north through the channel there is a large pool of warmer water south of New Orleans that could make him big and mean and bad.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leonidas But, if he heads north through the channel there is a large pool of warmer water south of New Orleans that could make him big and mean and bad.

Not to mention wipe out a bunch of offshore oil rigs...

[Leonidas]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Not to mention wipe out a bunch of offshore oil rigs...

Yep, if Gustav heads down the center of the probability cone he's going right up Main Street.

[lets-retire]

The waters in the Gulf aren't that warm. They are only in the 80's that in itself will limit the size of Gustav and probably be very limiting on hurricanes later in the season. People in Mississippi are also freaking out already. The general consensus is you weren't here for Katrina you don't know what a hurricane can do. I guess all my years living on the coast in the southeast including several years in Florida hasn't prepared me at all for the ravages of a hurricane, no matter how many I've lived through.