Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Gustav
Old 08-25-2008, 07:22 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 826
Gustav

We need a thread for hand-wringing and teeth grinding regarding the next tropical storm headed for the Gulf and/or Atlantic coasts.

You can monitor its progress here:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical.../at200807.html

__________________

__________________
socca is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-25-2008, 07:40 PM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
UncleHoney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Columbus
Posts: 769
Looks like Gustav will be nearing the gulf by next weekend. Should be worth a $6-$7 spike in the price of oil, just in time for the holiday weekend.
__________________

__________________
100% retired and working hard at it.
UncleHoney is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2008, 07:48 PM   #3
Moderator Emeritus
Khan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Pine Island, Florida
Posts: 6,868
Send a message via AIM to Khan
WQhen I hear Gustav, I think:

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.n...256A7D00256E43

Gustav and Walter and Franz
__________________
"Knowin' no one nowhere's gonna miss us when we're gone..."
Khan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-25-2008, 08:24 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
coming back from a low point of 8.82 ft from the summer 2007 drought to about 11.24 ft just before fay to 13.41 ft today, lake okeechobee is now only 0.63 ft below its seasonal norm level.

gustav might be just what we need to complete restoration of lake water levels, though as of now it looks like it will pass well to our south. still, never too early to make everyone's anxiety levels rise.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Keep an Eye on Gustav
Old 08-26-2008, 10:19 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Keep an Eye on Gustav

I don't like the looks of this one. Here's the latest track prediction from the National Hurricane Center: National Hurricane Center
Attached Images
File Type: gif Gustav.gif (34.8 KB, 6 views)
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 10:28 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Somewhat related, I was surprised to read an article the other day that said that the levies and flood controls that were reconstructed after Katrina arent worth spit and may actually provide a weaker level of flood protection than the ones that failed. Many areas offer only 100 year protection or worse.

Against that set of facts, most people living in the area think that they're sitting behind better protection than they had pre-katrina. I think the article said something like 1/3 of the homes in the area that flooded will flood again over the next decade or two.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:04 AM   #7
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,822
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
Somewhat related, I was surprised to read an article the other day that said that the levies and flood controls that were reconstructed after Katrina arent worth spit and may actually provide a weaker level of flood protection than the ones that failed. Many areas offer only 100 year protection or worse.

Against that set of facts, most people living in the area think that they're sitting behind better protection than they had pre-katrina.
I have not encountered one single person in the whole area who thinks that, other than those who moved here after Katrina and don't know any better.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:11 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Thats good to know. I wish I could find the article (something on AP) but I cant. It basically made it sound like everyone in the area thought they were safe and had been duped into thinking that.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:15 AM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Ah, there it is...
AP: New Orleans Repeating Deadly Levee Mistakes
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:21 AM   #10
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,822
CFB, from that article:
Quote:
concern about levee safety was dropping off the list of top worries, replaced by crime, incompetent leadership and corruption.
Other than the survey that gave these results, they quoted a very few individuals that they managed to dig up.

I am thinking that the above quote doesn't mean that people aren't concerned about levee safety. I would have said the same. We have multiple serious problems and some may destroy the city before "Katrina II" shows up (unless that is Gustav).

As for me, I'm hightailing it out of here as soon as I am eligible to retire. I made that decision in October, 2005, but for now I am chained here by the proverbial "golden handcuffs".

People that I work with, from top scientists and federal regulators to the black ladies in hairnets running the snack bar who I just bought my boiled egg and banana lunch from a few minutes ago, have already started reserving hotel rooms for the evacuation, getting medicines they might need, and packing their stuff.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:32 AM   #11
Moderator
Sarah in SC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 13,456
Want2, that is good news, I know that for a number of years after Hugo, we all were WAY more motivated to get our stuff together for evacuations than before. Now, it has been so many years and there are so many new people here, that it will be a carnival sideshow to get these people outta town.
Unfortunately, the folks in Florida seem to be staying in pretty good practice.
__________________
“One day your life will flash before your eyes. Make sure it's worth watching.”
Gerard Arthur Way

Sarah in SC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:32 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Purron's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 5,584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
CFB, from that article:

I am thinking that doesn't mean that people aren't concerned about levee safety. We have multiple serious problems and some may destroy the city before "Katrina II" shows up (unless that is Gustav).

As for me, I'm hightailing it out of here as soon as I am eligible to retire. I made that decision in October, 2005, but for now I am chained here by the proverbial "golden handcuffs".

People that I work with, from top scientists and federal regulators to the black ladies in hairnets running the snack bar who I just bought my boiled egg and banana lunch from a few minutes ago, have already started reserving hotel rooms for the evacuation, getting medicines they might need, and packing their stuff.
Wow W2R, are folks really worried about Gustav there already? It's very far away and could take many different paths at this point. In any event, I'll be hoping this doesn't end up being a major storm.
__________________
I purr therefore I am.
Purron is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 11:35 AM   #13
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Purron View Post
Wow W2R, are folks really worried about Gutav there already? It's very far away and could take many different paths at this point. In any event, I'll be hoping this doesn't end up being a major storm.
Of course it can take many different paths! Or, it could even stall where it is. We usually have a lot better idea after a storm is in the Gulf. Katrina entered the Gulf on Friday the 26th, and then impacted New Orleans the following Monday. Chances that Gustav will land in New Orleans are quite small at present.

This is S.O.P. for people living here, always has been for some and many more are nervous about the levees and such, after Katrina. People quickly forgot that before Katrina hundreds of thousands of people successfully evacuated from here, despite the fact that there are only a handful of roads out of this water-surrounded area.

Those who don't have relatives in Baton Rouge or north Louisiana usually reserve a hotel room, and THEN wait to find out if the storm is a big one coming this way. Then they cancel it without evacuating when the storm doesn't arrive. Refilling prescriptions likewise is a no-brainer. Most people dust off their hurricane list but even those planning to evacuate don't pack too far in advance. Some do pack early. I generally pile my stuff in a heap on my kitchen table after a strong storm enters the Gulf, so that I can toss it in the trunk and get out in a hurry if I need to, to beat the (horrendous?) traffic.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 12:39 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
This one might be one to worry about, although it looks like it's going to Mexico at the moment. This sucker intensified from a TD to a Cat 1 in 16 hours, tying the record for the shortest time for a storm to go from first advisory to Cat 1. These things are so unpredictable though, a lot of them look really scary at first and then go into a weakening phase before rebuilding and that's when they hit shore. Still, it's definitely time to get the checklist out.

Worried about Gustav already? Oh yes indeed. If you live along the GoM hurricanes are just a fact of life. For those of us who don't live right on the water we don't really worry about a storm unless it's going to hit at Cat 3 or above. And, to be honest, I don't really worry about a Cat 3 unless there is a concern that it is going to intensify before hitting land. A Cat 4 can do some serious damage far inland and a Cat 5 is going to bring some incredible destruction far from the beaches. Thank God Cat 5 landfalls are rare.

Now, if you live in a bowl shaped city that is mostly below the water level, and that city has been run for years by politicians and civil servants who are primarily concerned with "stealing all we can from every public project, and then steal a little more", you run like hell.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 01:12 PM   #15
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
Now, if you live in a bowl shaped city that is mostly below the water level, and that city has been run for years by politicians and civil servants who are primarily concerned with "stealing all we can from every public project, and then steal a little more", you run like hell.
Yep, that's "Plan A". "Plan B" is to run faster and further.

Of course, my real "Plan A" is to leave for good, and let the crooked politicians and criminals finish destroying what is left after I'm gone, but I can't do that for another 438 days.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 04:18 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Rustic23's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Lake Livingston, Tx
Posts: 3,624
Looks like the 5 day forecast says New Orleans or upper texas coast. There is a high building in north of cuba. If it does it should keep it south till it is in the gulf.
__________________
Rustic23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 08:02 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic23 View Post
Looks like the 5 day forecast says New Orleans or upper texas coast. There is a high building in north of cuba. If it does it should keep it south till it is in the gulf.
The cone is a rough approximation based on the different models they use. Right now one model says Gustav will dissipate, another says it will do a double hit on Mexico (Yucatan and then south of Brownsville), another says upper Texas Coast and the last said Louisiana. Too early to tell. There's other models, but these are the ones that should be working best for this particular storm.

Haiti took a lot off Gustav and he's back down to a TS without an eye. If he scrubs along the southern coast of Cuba it could weaken even more. Sucks for my brothers and sisters at Gitmo though.

Once he clears Cuba and gets in that channel between Cuba and the Yucatan is the time to pay attention. I'm hoping he goes west and even south to blow some trees down in the jungle of the Yucatan. But, if he heads north through the channel there is a large pool of warmer water south of New Orleans that could make him big and mean and bad.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-26-2008, 08:10 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,068
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
But, if he heads north through the channel there is a large pool of warmer water south of New Orleans that could make him big and mean and bad.
Not to mention wipe out a bunch of offshore oil rigs...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2008, 07:32 AM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Not to mention wipe out a bunch of offshore oil rigs...
Yep, if Gustav heads down the center of the probability cone he's going right up Main Street.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2008, 07:58 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,798
The waters in the Gulf aren't that warm. They are only in the 80's that in itself will limit the size of Gustav and probably be very limiting on hurricanes later in the season. People in Mississippi are also freaking out already. The general consensus is you weren't here for Katrina you don't know what a hurricane can do. I guess all my years living on the coast in the southeast including several years in Florida hasn't prepared me at all for the ravages of a hurricane, no matter how many I've lived through.
__________________

__________________
You don't want to work. You want to live like a king, but the big bad world don't owe you a thing. Get over it--The Eagles
lets-retire is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:13 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.