Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

[Zathras]

There are several obstacles to pure EVs, but it seems like Tesla is overcoming them one at a time. Obstacle #1 is the cruising range, but if you can get 200+ miles on a charge instead of the 30-50 in the past, that's huge. And it looks like the price point is being solved as well; at $35K it's borderline affordable, and with economies of scale and mass production that cost should continue to fall.

At least two big problems remain: The need to eventually replace batteries (very expensive) and the time it takes to recharge the vehicle -- not to mention the availability of "fast" charging stations.

Thes are indeed obstacles, to 100% market share.
They are not issues at all for some portion of the market.

As improvements are made, the percentage of the market for whom they pose no issues will grow.

It will never reach 100%. Likewise, it will always be more than 0%.
As the improvements you mentioned are implemented, and people start exploring the "new kid on the block", market share will grow.
This is why I believe plugin market share will surpass hybrid market share.

This is also part of the reason I support the idea that EVs will help create an oil glut similar to the one we have now.

 

[ERD50]

Unless hybrid cost overhead comes down, I don't see a path to a 33% adoption rate in the light vehicle market.
I am not sure how the numbers shake out with heavy vehicles, so hybrids may make more gains there.

Hybrid market share peaked between 3-4% before 2010 (if I recall correctly).
Although hybrid market share is about three times the plugin market share, I expect plugins to grow faster than hybrids.

If GM supports their new Bolt and Nissan comes up with a competitor, I expect plugin vehicles to reach 33% market share before hybrids reach 10%.
I also expect plugins to pass hybrids in terms of market share by 2020.

I do expect hybrid cost overhead to come down. Some of the cost is in batteries, and it seems the engineers are still on a learning curve with hybrids, so still some improvements to wring out. There are more and more models using the tech, so costs will be amortized more. And they make even more sense on heavy vehicles, where pure EVs can't compete (and that's where the fuel consumption is). I think miles driven is a better measure than vehicle count (some EVs will be short trip use, few will be regular long trip use).

We will see, but since all we do is shift the energy source from petroleum fuel for a hybrid, to mostly Natural Gas and coal for an EV, I don't even see the point of making the switch.

Hmmm, just found an interesting article on the subject. He looks at the actual local sources to charge the EV fleet (by hour, not just simple averages), versus the local pollution affects of a gas car, and comes to the conclusion that a subsidy is warranted for EVs for some urban areas with relatively clean charging power, and that EVs should actually be taxed across much of the nation.

A New Analysis of U.S. Counties Shows Where Electric Vehicles Cause More Pollution Than Gas Cars - CityLab

I wholeheartedly agree with this quote, whether we are talking EV, hybrid, or some other future tech:

And if it’s really all about the future, he says, let’s subsidize car research instead of car purchases.

-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

I do expect hybrid cost overhead to come down. Some of the cost is in batteries, and it seems the engineers are still on a learning curve with hybrids, so still some improvements to wring out. There are more and more models using the tech, so costs will be amortized more. And they make even more sense on heavy vehicles, where pure EVs can't compete (and that's where the fuel consumption is). I think miles driven is a better measure than vehicle count (some EVs will be short trip use, few will be regular long trip use).

We will see, but since all we do is shift the energy source from petroleum fuel for a hybrid, to mostly Natural Gas and coal for an EV, I don't even see the point of making the switch.

Hmmm, just found an interesting article ...
[snipped off topic part which we go round and round in circles on for all eternity ]

For the question of market share, it doesn't really matter if you see a point of making the switch.
What matters is how much of the car buying market wants to make the switch.

Very few people drive hybrids. They are under 3% market share and seem stuck there.

Electrics are below that, but growing.

The advantage to hybrids is that they use less gas.
Boom, that is it and it only seems to be good enough to get 3% of the market.

Here are the advantages of electric cars:
They have a better drive quality.
Better performance.
More convenient for about half the population (more than half of the car buying market).

Those are the reasons market share of plugin vehicles will surpass that of hybrids.

Pollution and/or greenhouse gases will have negligable affect as most of the market simply doesn't care.

 

[Gone4Good]

Pollution and/or greenhouse gases will have negligable affect as most of the market simply doesn't care.

More than that, even if people don't care they still get to feel virtuous buying a product that already seems cool and cutting edge.

Don't underestimate the marketing advantages of a Green EV even if the virtues aren't what people believe. What people believe is all that is important (see: vitamins, organic food, actively managed funds, etc.)

 

[Zathras]

More than that, even if people don't care they still get to feel virtuous buying a product that already seems cool and cutting edge.

Don't underestimate the marketing advantages of a Green EV even if the virtues aren't what people believe. What people believe is all that is important (see: vitamins, organic food, actively managed funds, etc.)

Oh, I agree that will have some market traction.
But hybrids had that, and it couldn't get them past 3-4% market share.

Now, with EVs you can get performance, fun, high quality drive, in addition to the perceived environmental benefits (I think they are real, ERD doesn't, but that doesn't matter for this topic).

With hybrids you had ONLY the perceived environmental benefits, with EVs you get a whole bunch of benefits.
More advantages - more market share.

 

[NW-Bound]

ERD50, just follow the crowd and buy an EV. Stop raising questions. The crowd is never wrong, and people all know it.

 

[Running_Man]

For the question of market share, it doesn't really matter if you see a point of making the switch.
What matters is how much of the car buying market wants to make the switch.

Very few people drive hybrids. They are under 3% market share and seem stuck there.

Electrics are below that, but growing.

The advantage to hybrids is that they use less gas.
Boom, that is it and it only seems to be good enough to get 3% of the market.

Here are the advantages of electric cars:
They have a better drive quality.
Better performance.
More convenient for about half the population (more than half of the car buying market).

Those are the reasons market share of plugin vehicles will surpass that of hybrids.

Pollution and/or greenhouse gases will have negligable affect as most of the market simply doesn't care.

There were actually fewer sales of electric cars in the US in 2015 than in 2014 even with TESLA becoming the greatest thing since sliced bread. Sales of EV’s declined 5% in 2015 even as actual car sales increased 5.7% so the “growing” of EV is not true

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[Midpack]

There were actually fewer sales of electric cars in the US in 2015 than in 2014 even with TESLA becoming the greatest thing since sliced bread. Sales of EV’s declined 5% in 2015 even as actual car sales increased 5.7% so the “growing” of EV is not true

+1. And it remains to be seen whether EV sales plateau like hybrid sales have, for many of the same reasons. When EV sales surpass hybrids, Zathras can let us know...

I don't follow the ("with hybrids you had ONLY the perceived environmental benefits") proposition either vs ICEV either

 

[Totoro]

EV sales worldwide nearly doubled from 2014 to 2015. China and Western Europe are steaming ahead.

The US is a rather small market in the EV space right now (<20% or so in 2015), after being rather dominant (~50% in 2013).

Probably due to low gas prices and low taxes, pretty specific to the US.

 

[NW-Bound]

It is lithium nickel (80%) cobalt (15%) aluminium (5%) according to here:
Tesla will use different batteries for its grid products. Here's why - Fortune

Checks out with other articles, such as this one:
Tesla Model 3 Battery Materials Supplier Ramping Up | CleanTechnica

They are also playing with anode/cathode, replacing graphite with silicon.
Why The Tesla 90D Battery Is So Much Better

Supposedly LiFePO4 batteries have worse density (per the wiki page).

[Edit] Percentages are quoted as 'typical', not specifically what Tesla uses.

It is true that the LiFePO4 battery has a lower energy density (something like 15% less). However, the principal advantage over other types is its safefy, which allows it to be used in aircraft. Other advantages as I recall are higher current drawn with less voltage drop, and a longer life. But as it appears to be more costly, perhaps it cannot compete in mass applications.

Everybody knows that what makes or breaks an EV is the battery, but only Musk takes the big step in trying to make them himself. I do not know enough to bet with or against him, but if he's successful we will all benefit.

 

[Music Lover]

Here are the advantages of electric cars:
They have a better drive quality.
Better performance.
More convenient for about half the population (more than half of the car buying market).

You're overstating the benefits and completely ignoring the negatives. The only real benefit to EV at this time is the refueling cost is less, but even that is not true in most cases once the increased cost is factored in.

Range and recharging time are major roadblocks that most people are not willing to overlook at this time. Sure, we all know that most trips are less than the vehicle's range, but the majority of people want a car that can be used for 100% of their trips, not just a portion of them, or for trips where a route must be carefully planned with several hours allotted for recharging.

Things may change in the future, but at the current time it seems that most purchases are being made by the early adopters and by the few who think that buying one will somehow save the planet.

 

[mpeirce]

There were actually fewer sales of electric cars in the US in 2015 than in 2014 even with TESLA becoming the greatest thing since sliced bread. Sales of EV’s declined 5% in 2015 even as actual car sales increased 5.7% so the “growing” of EV is not true

And that's even with what some people consider huge subsidies.

 

[ERD50]

Lots of good comments from others, but I'll add...

...
Here are the advantages of electric cars:
They have a better drive quality.
Better performance.
More convenient for about half the population (more than half of the car buying market). ...

Not only is that debatable (though many would agree regarding a Model S), but will it hold true at a more mainstream vehicle price? A more mainstream priced EV like the Leaf has a range limitation that definitely is not more convenient than a hybrid. Looks like we will have to wait quite a few years to see. Over half the cars sold in 2014 were under $30,000. EVs will need to be able to compete in that market to gain significant market share.

Average Transaction Prices Hit Record $32,386 in 2014, Edmunds Report Says | Edmunds.com

Pollution and/or greenhouse gases will have negligable affect as most of the market simply doesn't care.

Not according to surveys:

https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/survey-dashboard/ev

(I had trouble loading a screenshot, but if you choose "BEV" and "Purchase", it shows "Reducing Environmental Impact" to be the Number #1 motivation for purchase.)


bold mine -

... The advantage to hybrids is that they use less gas.
Boom, that is it and it only seems to be good enough to get 3% of the market. ...

And lower pollution (relative to a non-hybrid ICE - I'll avoid the 'other discussion' this time), and less brake wear with regen.

And compared to EVs, they have no range issues, and I can buy one today that suits my needs for far less than $70,000. Those are advantages, no?

Those are the reasons market share of plugin vehicles will surpass that of hybrids.

Are you including plug-in hybrids (like the Chevy Volt, Prius V) in that 'plug-in' category? I won't bet against 'plug-in' hybrids, as they don;t share the same issues as full BEVs.

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

While we have been discussing the merits of EV's, Hybrids, and ordinary ICE vehicles, oil has topped $40 a barrel. Just sayin...

 

[Gone4Good]

While we have been discussing the merits of EV's, Hybrids, and ordinary ICE vehicles, oil has topped $40 a barrel. Just sayin...

Of course nothing we've been discussing impacts the price of oil today. It might impact the price of oil many years from now, though.

 

[dallas27]

I'd wager that 20%-50% of orders this far are front runners.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Sunset]

Overnight charging when there is less demand on the grid sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that most people would plug the vehicle in as soon as they get home from work, then cook dinner and either turn up the AC or heat. What will happen on a hot day at 5:00 PM when an entire city has the AC running and 10's of thousands of EV cars re-charging?

Just use a timer so you can plug in but it does not start charging until later. It would not be long before these timers become standard installation.

Then smart rates let you decide to pay more and over-ride the delay for extra $$$

 

[dixonge]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but I'm wondering what GM is thinking right about now. They have an EV coming out *THIS YEAR* and yet 325,000 of their potential customer base just went and deposited $1000 sight-unseen (mostly) on a competing car that is more expensive and won't be out until 1-2 years after the Bolt is produced.

Would be interested to see a comparison of the driving experience of a Bolt vs Tesla...

 

[ERD50]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but I'm wondering what GM is thinking right about now. They have an EV coming out *THIS YEAR* and yet 325,000 of their potential customer base just went and deposited $1000 sight-unseen (mostly) on a competing car that is more expensive and won't be out until 1-2 years after the Bolt is produced.

Would be interested to see a comparison of the driving experience of a Bolt vs Tesla...

Maybe better for this thread:

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f29/tesla-model-3-a-81378.html?highlight=tesla

Since it is Tesla Model 3 specific?

But I'll reply here for now...

Tough call. Neither car is released yet, prices and features are not locked down. And as has been discussed here, the 325,000 refundable deposits could vaporize. Many of those may be to simply try to lock in the $7,500 tax credit that fades away after Tesla sells 200,000 EVs.

GM can sell the Bolt at a loss, in order to meet CAFE requirements (or face fines or buy credits from other EV makers).

The Model 3's will probably cost far more than the base $35,000 - they (smartly) tend to offer only higher end configurations for early shipments. The Model 3 is likely to be a much more impressive car as far as driving experience. Probably not really apples-apples.

But relevant to this thread, a more modestly priced EV is going to be needed to hit adoption levels that would have a significant effect on oil volumes. I'll stand by my statement that improvements in hybrids (and mpg improvements in general), will have a bigger effect on oil demand than EVs, as I think they will represent a larger % of cars (and trucks) on the road.

-ERD50

 

[mpeirce]

Since about 45% of Telsa new car sales are to California folks, I'm assuming the Model 3 reservations are roughly the same.

I don't see these same people swapping out even the cheap(er) Tesla for a Chevy. During the years I lived in the Bay Area, I don't recall knowing a single person who owned a Chevy. Sure there are Chevrolet's in California, but I just don't see most well-to-do Californians who want to signal their eco-credentials to their neighbors choosing the Chevy to do so.

 

[Zathras]

...
Not according to surveys:

https://cleanvehiclerebate.org/eng/survey-dashboard/ev

(I had trouble loading a screenshot, but if you choose "BEV" and "Purchase", it shows "Reducing Environmental Impact" to be the Number #1 motivation for purchase.)
...

Yes, the market in California places a higher priority on the environment than the national market. Even in California, if you add Lease to Buy the number is only 22% that put that up as the number one reason.

From a "perceived" standpoint of "less gas = better for the environment", less than 4% of the national market values that highly enough to override other priorities and buy a hybrid.

As for the market growth of plugins, yes, I include cars such as the Volt in which you get the benifits of the electric motor. I would prefer not to include "blended" hybrids such as the Plug In Prius, however I don't believe there is really a way to split that out.

And yes, the advantages are most obvious with the Teslas. However, all the Electrics have that smooth, quiet drive with 100% torque available from a stop.

I have spoken with Leaf, Volt and i3 owners that all swear they will never go back.
The Leaf owners I know that no longer drive a Leaf, drive a Volt. And the Volt owners I know that no longer drive a Volt drive a Tesla or Leaf.

The benifits are easy to see, regardless of the price point.
The Leaf will have slow sales until their next gen hits the dealers, the second gen Volt and Bolt should do very well, and the S and X are still going gangbusters.

 

[explanade]

Since about 45% of Telsa new car sales are to California folks, I'm assuming the Model 3 reservations are roughly the same.

I don't see these same people swapping out even the cheap(er) Tesla for a Chevy. During the years I lived in the Bay Area, I don't recall knowing a single person who owned a Chevy. Sure there are Chevrolet's in California, but I just don't see most well-to-do Californians who want to signal their eco-credentials to their neighbors choosing the Chevy to do so.

I'd be wary about buying a Chevy, not because of status reasons, but concerns about build quality and reliability.

 

[Totoro]

Lithium bubble?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-other-tech-giants-scramble-224732356.html

Should have seen that one coming.