Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

[Gone4Good]

But, what happens when the gas tax gets applied to EV's? At some point they have to pay their share of the taxes that supports the roads.

That's an interesting question. And because it's a question that will have a political answer, I'm sure we'll end up doing the worst possible thing.

Economists love things like the gas tax. Without such taxes there's no cost to the pollution generated from burning gasoline. Everyone gets to dump their pollution into the air for free, so we have more pollution than is desirable. Pigovian taxes, like the gas tax, are intended to put a price on that pollution.

Seen that way, the gasoline tax should definitely stay in place. And pure EV's should not pay that same tax because they don't burn gasoline. They should pay for the emissions that are produced to generate electricity, but that would be something entirely different (maybe a carbon tax.)

As for funding our roads, we should get away from relying on the gasoline tax and probably just fund them directly. Or, if you wanted to allocate the cost to drivers, move more toward toll roads.

 

[easysurfer]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't get how many people will charge these things.

If someone has a house with a garage it's straightforward.

But what about apartment dwellers? When I was young and relatively broke I parked on the street. How do I charge my EV? Maybe once in a while I could top it off at a charging station.

Seriously, what's the long term plan?

I suppose if you live in a place that is very EV friendly, then even apartment and condo dwellers can charge at the comfort of their own parking space .

"In all but the most special cases, people that live in apartments don't buy EVs," in part because home charging is inconvenient or unavailable, said Pasquale Romano, CEO of ChargePoint, one of the world's largest EV charging station operators. "So what you have to do is create a way for the landlord not to have to bear all of the cost. You have to wrap it as a service, much like other things landlords buy for apartment buildings -- like coin-operated laundry -- and that’s what we’ve done.”

Yesterday, ChargePoint announced a new service for condominiums and apartment buildings that provides residents with a dedicated EV charger in their own parking space, with relatively little risk for building owners. In this offering, ChargePoint covers all of the upfront costs of the charger itself, while the landlord is responsible for wiring the EV parking spot. In the past, in order to offer tenants EV charging, the property manager would have to cover all costs out of pocket.

ChargePoint Launches an EV Charger Made for Apartments and Condos | Greentech Media

 

[NW-Bound]

I watched Elon reveal the model 3. I haven't put down my deposit yet, but in all likelihood , I'll trade in my Model S for a Model 3.

I'd bet that at $35,000 the Model 3 will better than any other $35,000 car out there.
The tax credit will certainly help sales. I don't know about profitability,

I am not a car enthusiast, EV or not, so do not know much about the Model 3. But with its price, it has to be a lower model than your Model S and does not have the same performance and luxury. Why the trade down to take big loss (I assume you will have big depreciation)?

 

[NW-Bound]

...But, what happens when the gas tax gets applied to EV's? At some point they have to pay their share of the taxes that supports the roads...

These cars all have fancy Internet access. We can read their odometer wirelessly, and charge for actual miles driven.

 

[NW-Bound]

The grid has the capacity (capability to deliver power) to support EVs charging at night, as night time use is lower than the day time peaks. But we already stress the grid in many areas on a hot summer day. Adding a bunch of fast chargers to that load will require added infrastructure, and capacity. And no, I don't think that we will have an excess of green energy for those super chargers anytime soon...

Just charge them the higher daylight demand rate. There's nothing better to incentivize more solar farms than money, but not from the government please.

I wonder how the current street chargers bill for their fees.

 

[Music Lover]

Economists love things like the gas tax. Without such taxes there's no cost to the pollution generated from burning gasoline. Everyone gets to dump their pollution into the air for free, so we have more pollution than is desirable. Pigovian taxes, like the gas tax, are intended to put a price on that pollution.

Seen that way, the gasoline tax should definitely stay in place. And pure EV's should not pay that same tax because they don't burn gasoline. They should pay for the emissions that are produced to generate electricity, but that would be something entirely different (maybe a carbon tax.)

If all the gas tax collected is used for road construction and maintenance, then owners of electric vehicles should be taxed in some manner. Roads are not free and everyone should pay their fair share.

I'm not touching the carbon tax topic...there is too much political BS, green lies, and very little in the way of facts.

 

[Gone4Good]

If all the gas tax collected is used for road construction and maintenance, then owners of electric vehicles should be taxed in some manner. Roads are not free and everyone should pay their fair share.

I'm not touching the carbon tax topic...there is too much political BS, green lies, and very little in the way of facts.

I think I covered road construction in my original comment (fund directly, with tolls, or some other means.)

And the idea of a carbon tax only has as much political B.S. as we bring to it personally. It's just a tax, like any other. It's hard to imagine that taxing carbon is a worse way to collect revenue than taxing labor as we currently do. But like all things, I'm sure some will disagree.

 

[Music Lover]

The problem with taxing carbon is that CO2 is not carbon, and it is not pollution. Based on that, tolls would be the most fair way to collect revenue equally. And, of course, to make it fair for all, pedestrians and cyclists would also have to pay tolls.

 

[clifp]

Ahh, that tax credit helps explain part of the reason for these long pre-order lines:

Sorry, But Don’t Expect Your Tesla Model 3 to Cost Under $30K | WIRED

By the time the Modem 3 ships, Tesla could be at the point where the $7,500 credit is being phased out or eliminated. So getting in line for a chance to lock in a $7,500 credit makes more sense than standing in line for the latest i-whatever.

And these people could decide to drop their order if they find the credit is reduced by then (I've been assuming this is a refundable deposit, an option, but I haven't seen that in print yet). So that's a low risk deal - tie up $1,000 at current interest rates? And as is the case with Tesla and many new products, volume shipments may lag, prices may be higher than first discussed.

I'd guess it wasn't possible, but if they could have, it sure would have been advantageous to Tesla to turn down the tax credit for their first models, and keep those first 200,000 credits 'in reserve' for the lower price models, where the $7,500 is meaningful. I doubt the $7,500 credit made a single added sale for first models - I'm pretty sure there was another buyer in line behind anyone who would have balked over that price delta on a $100,000 car. Our tax dollars at work.

I talked about the lack of home charger earlier in regards to wide spread adoption. Yep, that's a real problem that just makes EV impractical for many, or at a minimum adds a cost to that 'inexpensive' car. Especially if we continue to see $2.xx/gallon gas.

IIRC, Tesla was also getting credits from other manufacturers, who needed to sell X% of 'zero-pollution' vehicles (don't get me started) in certain States, but didn't have the cars available, so just bought credits from Tesla? I think that will dry up soon, adding to Tesla's profitability challenge.

-ERD50

Actually I don't think many or maybe any of the Model 3 will get the tax credit. I saw on CNBC that Tesla has shipped just over 100,000 total cars, you figure 50-70K more this year S+ X, and it looks like they exceed the 200,000 mark by middle of 2017.

I imagine this will hurt sales. I am pretty sure that Elon didn't say anything about the tax credit during his presentation, but I will say that I was certainly factoring it in when I first thought about getting a Model 3.

 

[ERD50]

Actually I don't think many or maybe any of the Model 3 will get the tax credit. I saw on CNBC that Tesla has shipped just over 100,000 total cars, you figure 50-70K more this year S+ X, and it looks like they exceed the 200,000 mark by middle of 2017.

I imagine this will hurt sales. I am pretty sure that Elon didn't say anything about the tax credit during his presentation, but I will say that I was certainly factoring it in when I first thought about getting a Model 3.

As I understand it, it is US sales that factor into the 200,000 limit. I'm not that up on Tesla sales figures, but I think maybe the CNBC 'total' numbers are worldwide totals?

-ERD50

 

[clifp]

As I understand it, it is US sales that factor into the 200,000 limit. I'm not that up on Tesla sales figures, but I think maybe the CNBC 'total' numbers are worldwide totals?

-ERD50

Good point, I am guessing the numbers are roughy 65/35 US today, shifting to 50/50. I still think that most Model 3 owner will miss out.

In theory, Model S owners are supposed to get priority, so I'm going to call and find out how it works.

 

[Whisper66]

Curious about a couple things that might impact wider interest in Tesla EVs.....

What do you do if they run out of charge while on the road? Do they have to get towed? Is there some "mobile quick charge" from AAA or something similar?

Looking at the Tesla website, doesn't appear to be a lot of shops qualified to do maintenance. Do most people who own Tesla EVs get electrical system maintenance done by Teslas qualified shops or can just any good car repair shop work on those electrical systems?

 

[NW-Bound]

Interesting ideas on AAA mobile chargers. The problem is that these cars suck up a lot of power, particularly for fast charging. If you plug an EV into a standard 115V 15A socket, each hour of charge will let you drive 6 miles. Yes, an hour for 6 miles.

A fast charger needs to provide 120kW of power. You are talking about a fairly big generator to be towed by a service truck. See photo for a 100kW generator.

 

[travelover]

Interesting ideas on AAA mobile chargers. The problem is that these cars suck up a lot of power, particularly for fast charging. If you plug an EV into a standard 115V 15A socket, each hour of charge will let you drive 6 miles. Yes, an hour for 6 miles.

A fast charger needs to provide 120kW of power. You are talking about a fairly big generator to be towed by a service truck. See photo for a 100kW generator.

As an alternative, you could ask for a ride from a Volt owner. Or maybe a tow and ride the brake pedal enough to regen the battery.

 

[ERD50]

bold mine:

Good point, I am guessing the numbers are roughy 65/35 US today, shifting to 50/50. I still think that most Model 3 owner will miss out.

In theory, Model S owners are supposed to get priority, so I'm going to call and find out how it works.

That's my point about the lines. Since most may miss out, they are rushing to get an option to buy in - $7,500 (or even the lower phase out figure) on a ~ $35,000 purchase is a big incentive.

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

As an alternative, you could ask for a ride from a Volt owner. Or maybe a tow and ride the brake pedal enough to regen the battery.

Tow truck driver: "Dang! I did not know this little car is so heavy. Can't seem to get out of 2nd gear..."

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Adding a bunch of fast chargers to that load will require added infrastructure, and capacity.

Thank you. We're now in 100% agreement. *Drops mic*

Well we are in agreement on one thing regarding this (and that is what I meant to follow up on earlier), but isn't 100% in any way that matters. And you took it out of context - my comment only applied to daytime charging, which I think will be the minority of charging.

So for a short re-hash, since it's been a while - I made the point that EVs are an added marginal load, so on any grid without an unused excess of 'green' energy, the grid will need to fire up their fossil power plants to meet that EV demand, so EVs run on fossil (for the most part), and are only as clean as the NG/coal plants. It is the marginal demand that matters, not the average power the grid generates.

Gone4Good claimed that the added demand must be met by added capacity installations, and that new power is 'green'. I see several issues with that claim:

The first being that we have plenty of installed capacity to handle nighttime charging, since other demand drops at night. Utilities will just not throttle down coal as much, and/or throttle up NG turbines that already exist. No new capacity required.

The second is that I don't see any correlation between EV demand and green capacity. We've been putting in green capacity w/o EVs, it is separate and driven by policy, not EVs. We even increased green energy capacity while electrical demand went down!

Now, I would agree with Gone4Good that if (big IF) EVs were the sole reason that green capacity was added, and added at a rate that met EV growth, you could consider the EVs to be green at that point (at least on a fuel basis - production 'costs' could still be compared). But that word 'solely' would have to mean that that green capacity would not have been installed at all if it weren't for the EV. I have a hard time with that idea.

Even the few people who claim they only put solar panels in when they bought an EV - those solar panels would have been sold to someone else and installed regardless. It just does not add up.

-ERD50

 

[clifp]

I am not a car enthusiast, EV or not, so do not know much about the Model 3. But with its price, it has to be a lower model than your Model S and does not have the same performance and luxury. Why the trade down to take big loss (I assume you will have big depreciation)?

Technology advances it quickly.
My S is an early model with only a 40KWH battery so my range is 130-140 miles (perfectly fine for an island which has 112-mile circumference) Mine is a barebones model, which only cost me $56,000 after rebate.
The model 3 will probably be slightly slower but not a lot 0-60 in 5.5-6.0 second as opposed to 5.3 seconds for mine.
It will have more range 215+

It will be significantly smaller, which for most people is a disadvantage but for me is a feature. The model S is a really big car and especially wide. My BIL has full size extended cab Chevy Tundra pickup truck, the Tesla is 1/2" wider. Honolulu has many really narrow parking space and I've already had two accidents in parking garages trying to shoehorn it into a compact parking space. At times it nice to be able to haul 4'x8' sheets of plywood, large pieces of furniture and 3,500 lbs of tile, but don't have any new home construction project planned.

The Model 3 technology is far more advanced, better navigation system, better backup camera, parking sensor. But the main feature is autopilot. I had an opportunity to drive a Tesla with autopilot for a couple of days and it is awesome. I go to the gym three time a week, it is only 7 miles but it take 25-30 minutes going and 45-60 coming home. If I never have to drive again in rush hour traffic, I'll be happy. I can use the time to surf the web, or read a book on the 15" model 3 display. It will probably be mid to late 2018 anyhow.

 

[tulak]

You should also take into consideration self-driving cars. If self-driving cars become a reality in the next decade, then I can see most of these being EV with no personal ownership.

I can easily imagine a city based on self-driving cars. The roads/infrastructure could be built specifically for automated cars and cars that aren't automated are banned. This would reduce pollution significantly, reclaim a lot of land, and move people around efficiently.

If it seems far-fetched, look at a city like Paris, which occasionally has to ban has cars from driving in the city during the winter months due to pollution. But I suspect we'll see this first somewhere in Asia, where there is high government control and a willingness to spend on infrastructure. This would probably go a long way to reduce pollution in a place like Beijing.

So to tie it back to the thread, now you don't need to worry about charging stations within the city because city dwellers are passing on car ownership (which to some extent is true right now).

 

[Gone4Good]

Gone4Good claimed that the added demand must be met by added capacity installations, and that new power is 'green'.

As long as we're quoting me, lets actually quote me . . .

My thinking is that the environmental impact of new electricity demand from EVs should be measured by the new power supply that is installed to meet that demand. And newly installed capacity is decidedly more green than legacy infrastructure.

So if you're comparing the marginal impact of new EVs powered by the marginal production capacity added to meet new electricity demand, the result looks a lot more like the EV / WWS bar in your graph than the EV / Grid Average one.

After everything said in this thread, I think my original comment stands up pretty well.

 

[ERD50]

. . .

Originally Posted by Gone4Good View Post
My thinking is that the environmental impact of new electricity demand from EVs should be measured by the new power supply that is installed to meet that demand. And newly installed capacity is decidedly more green than legacy infrastructure.

So if you're comparing the marginal impact of new EVs powered by the marginal production capacity added to meet new electricity demand, the result looks a lot more like the EV / WWS bar in your graph than the EV / Grid Average one.

After everything said in this thread, I think my original comment stands up pretty well.

And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

-ERD50

 

[Gone4Good]

And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

-ERD50

Thank you.

 

[Gone4Good]

Meanwhile Tesla has received 180,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 in it's first 24 hours.

If nothing else, Tesla just got itself an $180MM interest free loan, which is pretty neat.

 

[rdy2go]

If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!

 

[Gone4Good]

If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!

I don't think anyone is buying these cars thinking they'll take them on long trips.

About 60% of the population lives on 3.5% of it's land, so long trips aren't an issue for most folks driving needs.