Here’s How Electric Cars Will Cause the Next Oil Crisis

[dixonge]

If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!

Yes, if you look at their map you can find holes. Congratulations? It's not a fixed map. It is constantly expanding.

You are using very absolute words like 'forever' and 'anywhere.' But yes, long trips would take longer in any electric vehicle. That has been inherent since the first EV. But you can now go 170 miles for every 30-minute supercharge. Based on that it would take 8.5 hours to travel the route I drove yesterday (Austin > Waco > Lubbock) if you take Google Maps' estimate and add 1.5 hours for charging. But guess what my actual travel time was?

I left Austin just before noon. We pulled into the Lubbock hotel at just before 9pm.

In other words, in a real-world scenario those charging times really aren't a problem. You have to plan your trips better, but otherwise probably not a deal-killer. Of course there aren't any superchargers between Austin and Lubbock (yet) but there will be. (click on the '2016' link on the Supercharger map to see end-of-year projections)

 

[Midpack]

And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

-ERD50

I missed it, please repeat yourself...

 

[MichaelB]

I missed it, please repeat yourself...

Not enough sugar in your coffee this morning?

 

[ERD50]

Not enough sugar in your coffee this morning?

He was too late for April Fools, so that's as good a response as any!


-ERD50

 

[MichaelB]

He was too late for April Fools, so that's as good a response as any!

Hey, I have an idea. Let's all get back on topic in our usual, friendly way.

 

[ERD50]

...But you can now go 170 miles for every 30-minute supercharge. ...

Yes, a more affordable EV (assuming Tesla delivers at ~ $35,000) with 170 miles on a 30 minute charge makes EVs practical for a larger audience.

An 80 mile range like the Leaf can occasionally be limiting for many. I gave the example of a business person planning to visit clients, has it mapped out as a 65 mile round trip - no problem. Then the boss calls and asks him to stop by customer xyz,or he has to go back to the office for something, and that takes him 20 miles out of his way and he's up to 65+20+20 = 105 - ooops! But with 170/30, no problem. Anything other than 'destination' driving would not even require a supercharger, 200 miles in a day is a lot if you are making stops (shopping, customer visits, etc) along the way.

With the lower per mile costs, a $35,000 EV might make good economic sense for someone who does fairly high annual miles, but rarely drives > 200 miles in a single day. 120 miles 4x week, 50 weeks is 24000 miles annual.

-ERD50

 

[Music Lover]

Overnight charging when there is less demand on the grid sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that most people would plug the vehicle in as soon as they get home from work, then cook dinner and either turn up the AC or heat. What will happen on a hot day at 5:00 PM when an entire city has the AC running and 10's of thousands of EV cars re-charging?

 

[travelover]

Overnight charging when there is less demand on the grid sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that most people would plug the vehicle in as soon as they get home from work, then cook dinner and either turn up the AC or heat. What will happen on a hot day at 5:00 PM when an entire city has the AC running and 10's of thousands of EV cars re-charging?

With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.

 

[Gone4Good]

With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.

Yup. With smart metering every EV becomes a little power price arbitrageur - buying power when it's cheap and selling it back to the grid when it's dear.

That also would allow a much higher penetration of intermittent power sources like wind and solar than would be otherwise possible. Today you have to build a certain amount of redundancy around wind and solar to replace the generating capacity lost when it's cloudy or calm.

But with enough batteries plugged into the grid charging and discharging based on supply and demand intermittent power becomes a much smaller problem. Meaning we can have far more of it, and more cheaply too.

 

[travelover]

..........That also would allow a much higher penetration of intermittent power sources like wind and solar than would be otherwise possible........

EV use would also be to an advantage as utilities reduce the buyback price of home generated electricity. If one could consume all the excess generated electricity by charging your EV, less is sold back to the utility at low prices. The trick would be matching maximum power generation with times when you are home.

 

[Whisper66]

Yes, a more affordable EV (assuming Tesla delivers at ~ $35,000) with 170 miles on a 30 minute charge makes EVs practical for a larger audience.-ERD50

I must not be the average person targeted by Tesla. I haven't paid near that much ($35k) for any car to date nor do I plan to. I see from a recent Houston article that Musk estimates the average selling price of a Model 3 with options would be around $42,000. From the Tesla website Q&A, they say the average home charge station will cost me another $1-2k. Ugh. I'll wait for the next version to see if that's more in my price range before I consider one.

Lower-priced Tesla sparks lots of interest - Houston Chronicle

https://www.teslamotors.com/support...ch-does-it-cost-to-install-charging-equipment

 

[explanade]

I believe the Chevy Bolt and the next Nissan Leaf will also target 200-mile range in the same price range.

And companies like BMW are observing this interest in the Model 3, which is going to sell in the same price range as its most popular models.

So the major manufacturers will be looking to deliver competitive models in the near future.

 

[Midpack]

I believe the Chevy Bolt and the next Nissan Leaf will also target 200-mile range in the same price range.

And companies like BMW are observing this interest in the Model 3, which is going to sell in the same price range as its most popular models.

So the major manufacturers will be looking to deliver competitive models in the near future.

Going to? BMW i3 Model Overview - BMW North America

 

[Music Lover]

With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.

Most people don't buy a dually F350 to pick up a load of wood once a year, but the grid HAS to be sized to meet the daily requirements. There will always be cloudy and windless days where the demand outstrips the intermittent generation from wind and solar. Smart metering can only do so much. The reality is that with more EV cars, the base grid demand will go up.

 

[explanade]

Well the i3 is impractical. I live 50 miles from San Francisco. So I wouldn't be able to drive there, spend a few hours there and then drive back on that unless there were a lot of chargers there. Already costs $10-20 to park in the city and probably surcharges to plug it in a parking garage.

Even with that if you hit a traffic jam, you could be stranded. Plus I've heard some i3 owners say it's unsettling driving it across a long bridge on windy days because it's so light.

But BMW plans to expand their model lineup as well as increase the range of the i3, which is pretty pricey for a car which would be limited to 2 hour jaunts around town of 10-15 miles (for round trips of 20-30 miles).

 

[Chuckanut]

I don't think anyone is buying these cars thinking they'll take them on long trips.

About 60% of the population lives on 3.5% of it's land, so long trips aren't an issue for most folks driving needs.

I agree. While I have read about Tesla owners doing cross country drives, I get the impression that the main goal of that trip was to drive the Tesla a long way. If a Tesla owner actually wanted to spend a lot of time driving about the Rocky Mountains or the back roads of the Southern states, I imagine they would have to rent a gasoline powered vehicle.

For comparison, my hybrid has a range of 600+ miles on one tank of gas. (40 mpg x 17 gallon tank).

 

[Gone4Good]

Smart metering can only do so much. The reality is that with more EV cars, the base grid demand will go up.

No doubt. Smart metering doesn't reduce total demand. It just moves the same demand around so you can supply it more efficiently.

EVs, meanwhile, definitely increase demand.

 

[mpeirce]

Yup. With smart metering every EV becomes a little power price arbitrageur - buying power when it's cheap and selling it back to the grid when it's dear.

I'm just imaging the latest car virus circa 2030. Some nefarious group releases it to wreak havoc with the grid by replacing the cooperative rules with rules that result in all the electric cars drawing maximum loads coordinated to cause trouble.

Sort of a DDOS attack on the grid.

 

[ERD50]

I must not be the average person targeted by Tesla. I haven't paid near that much ($35k) for any car to date nor do I plan to. ...

Agreed, and me too. I didn't say that a $35,000 car targeted the average person, I only said that a $35,000 EV with 170 mile & 30 minute supercharge capability made it practical for more people. And maybe (probably?) cost effective for high mile, mid-distance trip drivers.

I don't have time for the math, but it would be interesting to see where the kWh, $/gal, annual miles, purchase price graph intersects. And would high miles need to factor in a battery replacement at 6-7 years or so? Or just sell it to someone who can handle a 30% (or whatever) reduction in range, which is workable for many based on 200 mile initial range, but gets really marginal for the initial 80 mile range vehicles.

-ERD50

 

[Gone4Good]

I'm just imaging the latest car virus circa 2030. Some nefarious group releases it to wreak havoc with the grid by replacing the cooperative rules with rules that result in all the electric cars drawing maximum loads coordinated to cause trouble.

Sort of a DDOS attack on the grid.

Probably. A universal world constant we always need to design against: douche bags.

But can't those same DBs mess with power plants today?

 

[explanade]

Well for instance, google Maps shows I'm currently 236-246 miles from various parts of Lake Tahoe.

I don't go regularly and haven't been in a long time. But a lot of people do and not just skiers.

I don't think even the Model S with the biggest battery is a safe option to go up there, especially if you hit traffic jams and especially in winter when cold temperatures limit ranges.

Don't get me wrong, I fully back EVs. But at best they should be second cars for many people.

Or look at people who live in hurricane zones? It may not be unusual for people to evacuate hundreds of miles from home.

 

[Chuckanut]

Some hotels are installing charging areas for EVs. But, I doubt it's the dives I normally stay in.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/hilton-hotels-welcomes-tesla-superchargers.44652/

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/cool-hotels-near-superchargers.43184/

 

[travelover]

Most people don't buy a dually F350 to pick up a load of wood once a year, but the grid HAS to be sized to meet the daily requirements. There will always be cloudy and windless days where the demand outstrips the intermittent generation from wind and solar. Smart metering can only do so much. The reality is that with more EV cars, the base grid demand will go up.

Yea, but.........not everything has to run at once. The dumb grid just lets water heaters, AC units and electric heaters, car chargers and other high load devices kick on randomly. With minimal coordination, this can be managed to a much lower uniform level. And I don't see us relying exclusively on wind or solar, there will be an underlying fossil fuel base grid for a long time.

 

[NW-Bound]

The demand rate in many places already incentivizes people to shift their usage where it's possible. In my area, in the summer I pay 22.26c/kWh from 1PM-8PM, but only 7.41c/kWh off-peak. So, I programmed my pool pump to run in the morning, and also installed a timer to cut out the water heater during the on-peak period. We also do not run the washer, particularly the dryer during the peak-demand period.

Now, if I can find a cheap storage method to arbitrage the 15c difference, I will save some more money. I am waiting to see cheap lithium batteries from Elon Musk, but I am not holding my breath though.

I also have been calculating the cost of installing enough solar in a stand-alone off-grid system to run a small AC. It takes a lot of panels to run the 5-ton unit, but a small stand-alone AC to supplement the central AC is doable. Doing everything myself, I still calculated a decade to payback. But if the cost drops some more, I may do it as a hobby project to keep busy.

 

[Totoro]

I don't have time for the math, but it would be interesting to see where the kWh, $/gal, annual miles, purchase price graph intersects.

I'll try. Am sure there is a good site out there who did it thoroughly as well.

300 - 400 wh/mile seems to be the fuel use for the Tesla. At 10 cents per kwh that's 3 to 4 ct/mile. Got those numbers from Tesla forum. Assumes a fair bit of night charging.

Gas costs about 0.6 usd/litre in the US, a reasonably fuel efficient car can burn 6 litres/100 km. So 0.036 usd/km, or 5.8 ct/mile. Sorry for the european units, it's easier for me that way.

So let's say every mile closes about 2 cents in this example. This means driving +/- 50.000 miles to catch up a 1.000 USD in price difference.

Gives a ballpark figure, hope I did it right, am a bit tired.

In terms of what high mileage does to the battery, I don't know. What I do know is that maintenance on an EV should be less than a gasoline (fewer moving parts), especially with higher mileage.

The fun part is shifting countries: Sweden retail electricity is only 5 ct/kwh, and gas costs x2.5 the US price. So there it catches up much faster: nearly 11 cents per mile (let's say 10 ct/mile), or catch up 1.000 USD every 10.000 miles.