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Old 04-01-2016, 08:17 PM   #121
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My thinking is that the environmental impact of new electricity demand from EVs should be measured by the new power supply that is installed to meet that demand. And newly installed capacity is decidedly more green than legacy infrastructure.

So if you're comparing the marginal impact of new EVs powered by the marginal production capacity added to meet new electricity demand, the result looks a lot more like the EV / WWS bar in your graph than the EV / Grid Average one.
After everything said in this thread, I think my original comment stands up pretty well.
And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

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Old 04-01-2016, 08:17 PM   #122
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And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

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Old 04-01-2016, 08:23 PM   #123
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Meanwhile Tesla has received 180,000 pre-orders for the Model 3 in it's first 24 hours.

If nothing else, Tesla just got itself an $180MM interest free loan, which is pretty neat.
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Old 04-01-2016, 08:40 PM   #124
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If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!
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Old 04-01-2016, 08:51 PM   #125
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If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!
I don't think anyone is buying these cars thinking they'll take them on long trips.

About 60% of the population lives on 3.5% of it's land, so long trips aren't an issue for most folks driving needs.
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Old 04-02-2016, 05:48 AM   #126
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If Tesla's Supercharging stations take 75 minutes to bring a car up to full charge, how long would it take a regular charging station? And, is it 75 minutes every 200 miles? It would take forever to get anywhere it seems. I looked at their supercharger map and to get from Austin to ElPaso, I would have to drive from Austin to Dallas to Oklahoma City to Amarillo to Albuquerque and not have enough range to get to El Paso from Albuquerque. In other words, you can't get there from here!
Yes, if you look at their map you can find holes. Congratulations? It's not a fixed map. It is constantly expanding.

You are using very absolute words like 'forever' and 'anywhere.' But yes, long trips would take longer in any electric vehicle. That has been inherent since the first EV. But you can now go 170 miles for every 30-minute supercharge. Based on that it would take 8.5 hours to travel the route I drove yesterday (Austin > Waco > Lubbock) if you take Google Maps' estimate and add 1.5 hours for charging. But guess what my actual travel time was?

I left Austin just before noon. We pulled into the Lubbock hotel at just before 9pm.

In other words, in a real-world scenario those charging times really aren't a problem. You have to plan your trips better, but otherwise probably not a deal-killer. Of course there aren't any superchargers between Austin and Lubbock (yet) but there will be. (click on the '2016' link on the Supercharger map to see end-of-year projections)
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Old 04-02-2016, 08:05 AM   #127
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And I don't. But I'd just be repeating myself to explain it again, so I won't.

-ERD50
I missed it, please repeat yourself...
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Old 04-02-2016, 08:10 AM   #128
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I missed it, please repeat yourself...
Not enough sugar in your coffee this morning?
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Old 04-02-2016, 08:19 AM   #129
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Not enough sugar in your coffee this morning?
He was too late for April Fools, so that's as good a response as any!


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Old 04-02-2016, 08:44 AM   #130
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He was too late for April Fools, so that's as good a response as any!
Hey, I have an idea. Let's all get back on topic in our usual, friendly way.
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Old 04-02-2016, 08:50 AM   #131
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...But you can now go 170 miles for every 30-minute supercharge. ...
Yes, a more affordable EV (assuming Tesla delivers at ~ $35,000) with 170 miles on a 30 minute charge makes EVs practical for a larger audience.

An 80 mile range like the Leaf can occasionally be limiting for many. I gave the example of a business person planning to visit clients, has it mapped out as a 65 mile round trip - no problem. Then the boss calls and asks him to stop by customer xyz,or he has to go back to the office for something, and that takes him 20 miles out of his way and he's up to 65+20+20 = 105 - ooops! But with 170/30, no problem. Anything other than 'destination' driving would not even require a supercharger, 200 miles in a day is a lot if you are making stops (shopping, customer visits, etc) along the way.

With the lower per mile costs, a $35,000 EV might make good economic sense for someone who does fairly high annual miles, but rarely drives > 200 miles in a single day. 120 miles 4x week, 50 weeks is 24000 miles annual.

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Old 04-02-2016, 09:08 AM   #132
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Overnight charging when there is less demand on the grid sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that most people would plug the vehicle in as soon as they get home from work, then cook dinner and either turn up the AC or heat. What will happen on a hot day at 5:00 PM when an entire city has the AC running and 10's of thousands of EV cars re-charging?
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Old 04-02-2016, 09:27 AM   #133
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Overnight charging when there is less demand on the grid sounds nice on paper, but the reality is that most people would plug the vehicle in as soon as they get home from work, then cook dinner and either turn up the AC or heat. What will happen on a hot day at 5:00 PM when an entire city has the AC running and 10's of thousands of EV cars re-charging?
With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.
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Old 04-02-2016, 09:35 AM   #134
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With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.
Yup. With smart metering every EV becomes a little power price arbitrageur - buying power when it's cheap and selling it back to the grid when it's dear.

That also would allow a much higher penetration of intermittent power sources like wind and solar than would be otherwise possible. Today you have to build a certain amount of redundancy around wind and solar to replace the generating capacity lost when it's cloudy or calm.

But with enough batteries plugged into the grid charging and discharging based on supply and demand intermittent power becomes a much smaller problem. Meaning we can have far more of it, and more cheaply too.
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Old 04-02-2016, 09:43 AM   #135
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..........That also would allow a much higher penetration of intermittent power sources like wind and solar than would be otherwise possible........
EV use would also be to an advantage as utilities reduce the buyback price of home generated electricity. If one could consume all the excess generated electricity by charging your EV, less is sold back to the utility at low prices. The trick would be matching maximum power generation with times when you are home.
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Old 04-02-2016, 09:49 AM   #136
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Yes, a more affordable EV (assuming Tesla delivers at ~ $35,000) with 170 miles on a 30 minute charge makes EVs practical for a larger audience.-ERD50
I must not be the average person targeted by Tesla. I haven't paid near that much ($35k) for any car to date nor do I plan to. I see from a recent Houston article that Musk estimates the average selling price of a Model 3 with options would be around $42,000. From the Tesla website Q&A, they say the average home charge station will cost me another $1-2k. Ugh. I'll wait for the next version to see if that's more in my price range before I consider one.

Lower-priced Tesla sparks lots of interest - Houston Chronicle

https://www.teslamotors.com/support/...ging-equipment
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Old 04-02-2016, 09:53 AM   #137
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I believe the Chevy Bolt and the next Nissan Leaf will also target 200-mile range in the same price range.

And companies like BMW are observing this interest in the Model 3, which is going to sell in the same price range as its most popular models.

So the major manufacturers will be looking to deliver competitive models in the near future.
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Old 04-02-2016, 10:02 AM   #138
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I believe the Chevy Bolt and the next Nissan Leaf will also target 200-mile range in the same price range.

And companies like BMW are observing this interest in the Model 3, which is going to sell in the same price range as its most popular models.

So the major manufacturers will be looking to deliver competitive models in the near future.
Going to? BMW i3 Model Overview - BMW North America

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Old 04-02-2016, 10:08 AM   #139
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With smart metering, this could be either automated or incentivized. It is silly to size a grid such that it will handle any possible load - kind of like driving an F350 dually everyday because you pick up a load of firewood once a year.
Most people don't buy a dually F350 to pick up a load of wood once a year, but the grid HAS to be sized to meet the daily requirements. There will always be cloudy and windless days where the demand outstrips the intermittent generation from wind and solar. Smart metering can only do so much. The reality is that with more EV cars, the base grid demand will go up.
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Old 04-02-2016, 10:16 AM   #140
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Well the i3 is impractical. I live 50 miles from San Francisco. So I wouldn't be able to drive there, spend a few hours there and then drive back on that unless there were a lot of chargers there. Already costs $10-20 to park in the city and probably surcharges to plug it in a parking garage.

Even with that if you hit a traffic jam, you could be stranded. Plus I've heard some i3 owners say it's unsettling driving it across a long bridge on windy days because it's so light.

But BMW plans to expand their model lineup as well as increase the range of the i3, which is pretty pricey for a car which would be limited to 2 hour jaunts around town of 10-15 miles (for round trips of 20-30 miles).
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