Join Early Retirement Today
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
How bad will it get in China?
Old 01-22-2009, 07:28 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
How bad will it get in China? Worldwide

China’s electricity output declined 7.8 percent in November from a year earlier and fell 3 percent in October, the first declines since February 2002, according to China Economic Information Net data compiled by Bloomberg. Manufacturing shrank for a third month as the deepening global recession cut demand for the nation’s toys, clothes and electronics.
Edwards said rising unemployment among factory workers will fuel social unrest, threatening the Communist Party’s survival and increasing the risk authorities will devalue the yuan to boost exports.


No matter how bad we think we have it economically in the USA it is usually worse outside the USA.
Before this downturn China needed to create about 20 Million jobs a year to maintain it's unempolyment rate - unofficially in the high teens.

Protectionism was the problem in the 30s. Maybe currency devaluation will be the problem today.

Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-22-2009, 08:17 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 20,761
Is it really so dire? Just a day or two earlier, I saw on Bloomberg Web site the report that China GDP growth slowed down to 6.8% annual rate in the last quarter. That would be hypergrowth for developed countries. If I can find the article, I will post the link.

NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2009, 01:46 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 4,898
From Roubini 1/22/09
RGE - The Chinese Devil Wears Prada: Why 0% Growth is the New Size 6.8%

"The Chinese came out today with their 6.8% estimate of Q4 2008 growth. China publishes its quarterly GDP figure on a year over year basis, differently from the U.S. and most other countries that publish their GDP growth figure on a quarter on quarter annualized seasonally adjusted (SAAR) basis.
When growth is slowing down sharply the Chinese way to measure GDP is highly misleading as quarter on quarter growth may be negative while the year over year figure is positive and high because of the momentum of the previous quarters’ positive growth.
Indeed if one were to convert the 6.8% y-o-y figure in the more standard quarter over quarter annualized figure Chinese growth in Q4 would be close to zero if not negative.
Other data confirm that China was in a borderline recession in Q4 and that it may be in an outright recession in Q1: production of electricity plunged 7.9% in y-o-y basis; the Chinese PMI has been below 50 and close to 40 for five months now.
And with manufacturing being about 40% of GDP , manufacturing is certainly in a sharp recession (negative growth) and the overall economy may be close to a recession
So the 6.8% growth was actually a 0% growth – or possibly negative growth – in Q4; and the Q1 figures look even worse. So China is in a recession regardless of what the highly massaged official numbers claim."
Zoocat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-27-2009, 01:23 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 20,761
Oldbabe, you are right. Their economy was flat from Q3 to Q4. Here's another article on the same subject.

Global meltdown snares China - MSN Money

The natural question is whether they have reached bottom. I have read that some pundits are now placing their bets on China being able to climb out of the hole before other nations. I hope they are right since I have some positions on raw material producers, and some dry bulk shippers. I have no Chinese stocks, but follow their market indices for a feel of their economy. Their market is closed for several days as they celebrate the Lunar New Year.
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Ive Been a Bad Bad Boy MXR Dad Hi, I am... 25 07-17-2008 10:15 PM
China again Ed_The_Gypsy Stock Picking and Market Strategy 6 10-08-2007 01:02 AM
China $$$ Coming This Way ? JPatrick FIRE and Money 18 05-15-2007 05:58 AM
China trip Robert the Red Other topics 6 05-08-2007 09:00 AM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:57 PM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.