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How High Will Airfares Go???
Old 07-01-2008, 06:28 AM   #1
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How High Will Airfares Go???

I see all the airlines cutting, and cutting. I flew to Phoenix with 5 of us for $315 a person back in May............I don't think I'll see fares that low again.

I predict I will be doing a LOT more driving for travel.......one local guy predicted that airfares would be $700-$1000 a person within a year or so.............

I am NOT paying $4000 JUST FOR AIRFARE to go to Disney World.........
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Old 07-01-2008, 06:40 AM   #2
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Same here Bubba. Airlines will go out of business if they are waiting on people like me to pay those prices.
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Old 07-01-2008, 09:27 AM   #3
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I think we will see the ghetto busses of the skies (Southwest, JetBlow, etc.) changing their business models unless fuel prices back down.

For the rest, I expect that service cuts and maybe a carrier bankruptcy or two will help resolve the industry's issues. I expect tickets will be a lot more expensive than they used to. I also expect that I will be taking more vacations in my travel trailer, except for visiting DW's family in CO.
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Old 07-01-2008, 09:29 AM   #4
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We will definitely be taking a lot less trips than previously planned. Tickets from San Diego to Honolulu have jumped from $189 one way to $370. That was due to the fuel crisis and the closure of the competition when Aloha went bust.
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Old 07-01-2008, 09:30 AM   #5
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There was an article in the Journal a few weeks ago...Consider that JetBlue was selling NY-LA flights for under $400 round-trip. Given their average load factor, they will pay almost $300 per passenger for fuel with crude at $130/bbl. That left about $100 per passenger to pay all the other costs of the flight plus earn a profit margin. So yes, prices will be going up, and people will be flying less. I think the biggest collateral damage will be family oriented destinations - if I really need to go somewhere by myself, I can spend a few hundred extra dollars on a plane ticket. But when you're buying tickets for a family of four, that may be a dealbreaker for many households.
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Old 07-01-2008, 09:56 AM   #6
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I guess I am lucky in that I only paid $255 for an airfare from Phoenix to Mpls and this was in the first half of June.

I think prices are going to double and within a shorter amount of time than people think. I heard that if the cost of fuel keeps rising, within six months the airlines are going to be in serious trouble (if not on the brink of disaster).

Oh well, I don't take vacations anyway (too expensive) and the only place I go is to visit my parents twice a year so I can afford a doubling in prices, I guess, not that I'm happy about it. I think for me what bugs me the most is packed planes and getting stuck in the middle seat, which is like torture on any flight over and hour or two. Gone are the days of having a whole row to myself.
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Old 07-01-2008, 10:35 AM   #7
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Midwest Airlines is headquartered here, and they are looking to cut half their pilots and other employees, and want the pilots and flight attendants to take a 65% PAY CUT.........
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Old 07-01-2008, 10:39 AM   #8
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Midwest Airlines is headquartered here, and they are looking to cut half their pilots and other employees, and want the pilots and flight attendants to take a 65% PAY CUT.........
Don't count on it... what was it that Warren Buffet said about airlines? Something like avoid an industry where the companies experience incredible growth and when they've gained market share they still earn no money. With Oil and the pilot's union and overhead and equipment and staff/other expenses, it is absolutely a headache to understand how airlines can stay in business. People will certainly fly less, which WOULD cause prices to decrease if oil weren't taking off the way it is.
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Old 07-01-2008, 10:42 AM   #9
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I just bought tickets for my annual Xmas trip to Europe and while the price of the transatlantic ticket has not increased that much from the last year, the price of the domestic ticket has gone up significantly. So let's see:

Ticket from NYC to Europe: $700. 3,800 mile trip on a world class, profitable airline. Two good (and free) meals, good entertainment, excellent on-time and safety record, free booze, free luggage, agreeable staff. Large aircraft with comfortable seats. Low incidence of lost luggage.

Ticket from my hometown to NYC: $700. 750 mile trip on a "legacy" airline (not much choice from my home airport). Got to pay for meals, drinks and aisle seat. Poor on-time performance. Got to pay for my own luggage to be lost. Rude and cranky staff. Tiny regional aircraft requiring a yogi's flexibility to fit in the bathroom
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Old 07-01-2008, 10:50 AM   #10
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I constantly watch the price of tickets as I fly back and forth to see my family . So far they've increased by about $50.00 a ticket . If they became ultra expensive I'd consider moving near my daughter & grandson . No way am I going to miss out on seeing them.
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:11 AM   #11
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Don't count on it... what was it that Warren Buffet said about airlines? Something like avoid an industry where the companies experience incredible growth and when they've gained market share they still earn no money. With Oil and the pilot's union and overhead and equipment and staff/other expenses, it is absolutely a headache to understand how airlines can stay in business. People will certainly fly less, which WOULD cause prices to decrease if oil weren't taking off the way it is.
I have NEVER owned any airline stocks, and I don't follow them. My reasoning is quite simple: Their LARGEST expense is the one they have the LEAST amount of control over, and that's NOT good.........
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:15 AM   #12
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I constantly watch the price of tickets as I fly back and forth to see my family . So far they've increased by about $50.00 a ticket . If they became ultra expensive I'd consider moving near my daughter & grandson . No way am I going to miss out on seeing them.
I think the days of flying somewhere domestically and then renting a car are numbered.

I did the math on driving to Disney World. Fully loaded down, my minivan gets about 24-25 mpg on the highway. Figuring conservatively at 20 mpg, it's 1377 miles to Disney World, I would burn roughly 69 gallons of gas, at $5 a gallon that's $345, plus a hotel room I know I could find for let'ssay $70. So, for $830, I can drive roundtrip, plus do sidetrips if we have time. The only loss is the time factor, but it's still going to be far and away the cheapest route for 4 people............
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:46 AM   #13
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I think the days of flying somewhere domestically and then renting a car are numbered.

I did the math on driving to Disney World. Fully loaded down, my minivan gets about 24-25 mpg on the highway. Figuring conservatively at 20 mpg, it's 1377 miles to Disney World, I would burn roughly 69 gallons of gas, at $5 a gallon that's $345, plus a hotel room I know I could find for let'ssay $70. So, for $830, I can drive roundtrip, plus do sidetrips if we have time. The only loss is the time factor, but it's still going to be far and away the cheapest route for 4 people............
I did the math too for my trip to NYC. By road it would be 920 miles one way (15 hour drive, ouch!), so 1840 miles round trip. On highway I can go 400 miles on one tank of gas (fully loaded) and right now it costs about $52 dollars to fill up. So a round trip to NYC by car would cost about $240 in gas. Compare that to the $2100 we are paying for 3 people to fly to NYC and the "convenience" of flying starts to be seriously outweighed by the comparatively low cost of driving. Plus I know my luggage will make it too...
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Old 07-01-2008, 11:52 AM   #14
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For me to fly to Texas in January it will only cost 260 .

My trip to Providence in Dec went from 390 to 462 per person. It seems if you can make reservations way out in advance you are a lot better off. This is flying from California. The prices are still within my range.

I should note these are all popular flight times and with 1 stop.
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Old 07-01-2008, 12:03 PM   #15
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The prices are still within my range.
I agree, despite the recent increases, the prices are still within our range as well. The day we can't afford to fly anymore on our income, then airplanes are going to be awfully empty. But it's getting to the point where I don't feel I am getting enough value from air travel. Plus I am getting tired to be nickel and dimed by the airlines (what's next? in case of an emergency please purchase your flotation device from the flight attendant for the modest price of $5?). Flying used to be a no brainer for us, but I think that on short to medium trips driving has become a much better value. So to answer the OP's question, airfares (at least on some routes) have already gone too high as far as I am concerned.
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Old 07-01-2008, 12:04 PM   #16
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For me to fly to Texas in January it will only cost 260 .

My trip to Providence in Dec went from 390 to 462 per person. It seems if you can make reservations way out in advance you are a lot better off. This is flying from California. The prices are still within my range.

I should note these are all popular flight times and with 1 stop.
Not bad fares.........I think "nonstop" flights are going the way of the dodo..........
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Old 07-01-2008, 12:37 PM   #17
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I see all the airlines cutting, and cutting. I flew to Phoenix with 5 of us for $315 a person back in May............I don't think I'll see fares that low again.
It may be possible to get around $320 if you fly late at night.
I just booked Chicago -Phoenix on Southwest at $347 and Chicago -Las Vegas at $344. These prices are about $50 more than 6 months ago.
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Old 07-01-2008, 01:22 PM   #18
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The thing that I don't understand is the airfare is going up but cruise prices are dirt cheap . Sure they added a fuel supplement but they are still inexpensive as compared with air travel . A few years ago new England cruises were all in the $1300 range now they are half that .
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Old 07-01-2008, 01:39 PM   #19
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On the other hand, has airfare increased any more percentage-wise than the price of gas for your car? If not, then I think people will keep flying.

In my view, some may cut back in the short term until the sticker shock wears off, (and there may be a bit of a shakeup/shakeout in the airline industry because of that) but in the end it's always been a time vs. money thing domestically whether to fly or drive.

So the price of airfare from DFW to Orlando doubles - well so has the price of gas to drive there. (you still can't drive from DFW to Hawaii)
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Old 07-01-2008, 01:57 PM   #20
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So the price of airfare from DFW to Orlando doubles - well so has the price of gas to drive there. (you still can't drive from DFW to Hawaii)
I think it's pretty universally known that it is cheaper to drive than fly. I agree on the international and to Hawaii and Alaska, you need to fly.

But, I think it comes down to economics. When I grew up, we drove everywhere because my Dad said it was too expensive to fly. I don't know if that was true or not but we had fun on our trips and never complained.

We'll have to see where it shakes out. Business travelers have to keep flying no matter what, so that business stays. More likely the airlines will lose the 20% of us who fly not that often. Maybe they don't care about us "casual flyers".........why would they??

My aunt and uncle drove up from South Carolina to see me this past week. Air fare would have been almost $1000 for the two of them. He made it up to my house on $120 worth of gas so he was happy. it took him 15 hours, the airline would have been two hours.
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