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View Poll Results: How long do you plan to be retired?
5-10 years 1 0.83%
11-15 years 1 0.83%
16-20 years 5 4.17%
21-25 years 9 7.50%
26-30 years 17 14.17%
31-35 years 29 24.17%
36-40 years 19 15.83%
41-45 years 18 15.00%
46-50 or more!! 21 17.50%
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Old 02-02-2009, 08:14 AM   #21
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On the reassuring side, in my FireCalc runs, there seems to be surprisingly little drop in success rate as you raise the number of retirement years once you get beyond 35 years or so. Seems to be kind of asymptotic.
Which makes sense when you think about it: as n (the number of years in retirement) increases, the value of 1/n (the percentage drawdown of your portfolio each year) approaches zero.
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Old 02-02-2009, 09:25 AM   #22
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30 years, starting at age 58. I don't expect to last that long, but just in case....

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Old 02-02-2009, 10:16 AM   #23
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When I retired at 58, I used 35 yrs in Firecalc for planning/testing purposes. Neither my dad nor any of my uncles made it to 93 however, so I'm probably being quite conservative in terms of financial planning.
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Old 02-02-2009, 10:20 AM   #24
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Which makes sense when you think about it: as n (the number of years in retirement) increases, the value of 1/n (the percentage drawdown of your portfolio each year) approaches zero.

I don't think it works that way Ziggy.
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Old 02-02-2009, 10:22 AM   #25
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31-35 years sounds reasonable with family medical history.
In the meantime, I'll be more careful getting my mail. My country road is plagued by milk and full length log trucks barreling along, fully laden, in excess of 50 mph around a blind turn.
The good news is I can hear them coming before I actually see them.
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Old 02-02-2009, 03:37 PM   #26
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I am aiming at semi-retirement at age 57 (or 56 if I can do it) and all my models assume that I will live to at least 100 years of age, so I voted 46 years & up. My parents and both of my aunts are all in their eighties and all look like sticking around for at least several more years. One of my grandmothers lived to 84.

That may be the wrong number of years as I plan on working part time up until age 70, but I am assuming only a small part of my living expenses ($5000/year) will come from part time work, and my models only assume I will use 1/4 of my projected Social Security benefitk, so if I can't find a job or get fed up with work I'll just spend half of my SS instead of a quarter and that would make up the difference.
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Old 02-02-2009, 03:46 PM   #27
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I retired at 41...I'm 51 now. So I figure around 45 retirement years. Of course with the economy the way it is, I might have to shave off a few years......
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Old 02-02-2009, 04:14 PM   #28
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Forever?
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Old 02-11-2009, 10:10 AM   #29
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According to me, 36 to 40 years would be ideal for me. I would try to make most of the money by then and then splurge it on myself and my family. Hoping I make enough money by then
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Old 02-11-2009, 01:55 PM   #30
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I picked 41 to 45. I FIREd at 53, and decided to play it safe for planning purposes, but have no idea how long I'll last. One grandma lived to 93, the other to 101, but both my parents died at 75. I wish I didn't have to "worry" about outliving my money.
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Old 02-11-2009, 02:19 PM   #31
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The IRS is going to allow me to croak at 84.6 + or - 0.05. Sooo that's 18.6 yrs from now - BUT I've be practicing since January 1, 1993.

I wanna figure like that Anthony Quinn guy in the movie - how to live forever - or at least take it with me.

heh heh heh -
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Old 02-11-2009, 03:40 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
On the reassuring side, in my FireCalc runs, there seems to be surprisingly little drop in success rate as you raise the number of retirement years once you get beyond 35 years or so. Seems to be kind of asymptotic.
Isn't this likely to be just an artifact? In spite of the reassuring number of runs, most are over the same ground, just dropping one year and adding one year each time.

Ha
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Old 02-11-2009, 03:44 PM   #33
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Didn't read the whole thread, so forgive me.

Here is a calculator to help you figure out when retirement ends.

Life expectancy calculator - MSN Money
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Old 02-11-2009, 03:57 PM   #34
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Like Rich-in-Tampa, I have assumed that if your portfolio is designed to last 35-40 years it is very close to a "forever" portfolio. University endowment managers basically try to achieve that don't they? At what point have you created an endowment type allocation and withdrawal plan?
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Old 02-11-2009, 04:03 PM   #35
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I will stay retired until the day I die. The date certain is not known to me. I'll let you know the day after I depart.
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Old 02-11-2009, 04:08 PM   #36
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I'll let you know the day after I depart.
Wishful thinking
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Old 02-11-2009, 05:17 PM   #37
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Wishful thinking
To the contrary, message will be sent. Who is to disprove it?
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Old 02-11-2009, 05:20 PM   #38
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To the contrary, message will be sent. Who is to disprove it?
Is99, are you okay? My nose itches.
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Old 02-11-2009, 06:02 PM   #39
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Is99, are you okay? My nose itches.
OK, well then scratch it.
I'm fine, this is from the threshold, it is a slow process you understand, figure another ten or thirty years + or -.
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Old 02-11-2009, 06:07 PM   #40
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That's a relief, Is99. Live long and prosper.
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