Hurricane and Tropical Talk - 2019 season

[JoeWras]

Well, it looks like Tropical Storm Karen will now be one to watch closely, if you live anywhere along the U.S. SE or Gulf Coast. Early projections had it headed safely north and east, out to sea, but this morning the models changed their tune. Now a lot of models show it running into a brick wall (big ridge of high pressure) somewhere east of the Florida peninsula, and then making an abrupt left turn, heading west. Not good! Of course, we are still 8-10 days out, so a lot of things can/will change between now and then - but definitely something to keep an eye on.....

Yes, watching closely. It could interfere with relief efforts on Ocracoke should the block occur and a stall or left turn happens.

 

[LOL!]

Yes, watching closely. It could interfere with relief efforts on Ocracoke should the block occur and a stall or left turn happens.

With relatives that have homes on NC outerbanks islands, I am surprised there are "relief efforts on Ocracoke" because they all know the place is not meant to be permanent. They expect things to be washed away never to be rebuilt. What's up with relief efforts? Isn't is just clean up any mess and move away?

I see this: https://wcti12.com/news/local/enc-community-stepping-up-to-help-ocracoke but really instead of sending diapers and wipes to Ocracoke, the babies should be removed and go to the mainland.

 

[JoeWras]

With relatives that have homes on NC outerbanks islands, I am surprised there are "relief efforts on Ocracoke" because they all know the place is not meant to be permanent. They expect things to be washed away never to be rebuilt. What's up with relief efforts? Isn't is just clean up any mess and move away?

I see this: https://wcti12.com/news/local/enc-community-stepping-up-to-help-ocracoke but really instead of sending diapers and wipes to Ocracoke, the babies should be removed and go to the mainland.

Removed. Wow.

I think one of the lessons I learned in my relief efforts was one of history and community. Many people have generational roots in certain areas, and it is their home, and all they ever knew. Do I agree with building on the outer banks or flood plains? No. But I do appreciate the roots people have put down before they really understood what was happening, and modernization occurred.

In short, you can't remove the babies because these are babies of people who work on the island, serving the demanding rich tourists who expect to have a great experience they can post on Facebook. You expect these people to leave their jobs?

In long: Ocracoke's history goes way back to fishing village times. Pre-electricity, pre-roads. There is a rich history of people living there year round. It lasts to today. There is a school. There is community.

What you typically see in most of the Outer Banks is rich seasonal homes build on stilts. These are quite modern. Many of these homes are served by people living on affordable mainland housing. They commute in. Ocracoke has a somewhat hidden neighborhood of older homes that were not built to the proper flood standard. You just can't raze the neighborhood because these are mostly service workers. They need an affordable place to live. You can't expect people to live on the mainland and ferry in. That would be a death commute. It isn't like the rest of the Outer Banks which are easily reachable by car without ferry. (More history: the island south of Ocracoke, Porstmouth Island, is today just a tourist spot run by the park service. It used to be much like Ocracoke as a self sustaining village. Many buildings still stand and are tourist attractions only. There's no permanent living there. Maybe some day Ocracoke will reach the same fate...)

Should there be a plan to do things differently? Yes. Hopefully a rebuild will occur in time to a higher flood surge standard.

Are there year round people hurting now? Yes. The school kids are especially traumatized and need a sense of normalcy.

So, why is there relief effort? Healthy and Safety. Gotta get the homes dried before health issues get worse. Right now it is muck and clean up. I'll leave it to the politicians to argue about rebuild rules.

I also want to say a lot of the residents who own vacation homes on the island have opened them up to the year round residents and relief workers. Many of these homes were untouched since they were raised above surge level properly.

 

[harllee]

JoeWras, I am a NC resident and have spent many a great summer vacation at Ocracoke, it is a wonderful place. I also want to thank you for all your help you have given Ocracoke and other places affected by hurricanes.

However, I have always thought that Ocracoke and really all of the North Carolina outer banks was only ours to enjoy on a temporary basis. I just don't see how Highway 12 and the ferry docks are sustainable on a long term permanent basis. I understand about Ocracoke history and permanent residents but historically Ocracoke had only a few houses, now there are all those vacation homes. I also question the wisdom of the 800 hundred
people refusing to evacuate during this last hurricane.

We have to realize that absent some major changes the climate is changing and the sea is rising and at some point the NC outer banks will be under water. I know it will be hard for the people who live there to face this, I really feel for them. But is also does not make sense to ignore the science and just throw money at rebuilding homes that will just wash away again in a few years.

Maybe things can change regarding the climate, but I am not optimistic.

 

[LOL!]

Removed. Wow.

[...]

Since you asked, my answer is: Yes, Ocracoke should be made into a national seashore much like Cape Lookout National Seashore and no permanent nor part-year residents should be there. Perhaps only primitive camping should be allowed.

 

[JoeWras]

As I mentioned, I actually agree with you all that the OBX should be returned to nature. We may disagree with the speed of such. I wish our state had the balls to stop further building now.

As a family who suffered from a somewhat dubious eminent domain action, I can say removal is hell. Grandfather and sunset is what I'd prefer.

But anyway, that's politics. Right now, I'm for the people. The people I've met doing this work are frankly a group I haven't rubbed elbows with before. I'd say most on this forum typically don't. They've been wonderfully uplifting to me.

BTW, as LOL! mentioned, I highly recommend a trip to Cape Lookout National Seashore to get a feel for the mostly unspoiled OBX. Check them out some day if you have a chance.

One more thing. If we're going to go here, let's also consider returning New Orleans to nature.

And I hope when the earthquake hits the West Coast, volunteers are available to help and not criticize living in an earthquake zone.

 

[LOL!]

One more thing. If we're going to go here, let's also consider returning New Orleans to nature.

I totally agree. I've always thought that New Orleans would make a nice tourist attraction much like Pompei. Just have some glass-bottomed boats for the tourists to see the old homes and buildings under the water. Plus maybe a hotel up on stilts in the middle of the swamp. That's all it needs.

 

[Music Lover]

We have to realize that absent some major changes the climate is changing and the sea is rising and at some point the NC outer banks will be under water. I know it will be hard for the people who live there to face this, I really feel for them. But is also does not make sense to ignore the science and just throw money at rebuilding homes that will just wash away again in a few years.

Maybe things can change regarding the climate, but I am not optimistic.

We're still coming out of an ice age...my house would have been under a mile of ice 10,000 or so years ago.

The sea levels have been rising at the same rate for hundreds of years and that's not likely to change but the problem today is that there is far more development in low areas and millions more people on or near the coast. When a storm or hurricane hits far more people are affected.

 

[MichaelB]

[mod hat on]
Another thread about current weather being ambushed and sidetracked by a discussion on climate change. The OP requested in post 8 to avoid that. Please stay on the original topic.
[mod hat off]

 

[lemming]

Well besides Mike's weatherpage and other storm watchers blogs I look at the city-data weather threads for entertainment. I'm impressed by the amount of work that a couple of posters put into their storm chasings. Must be fun for them.
Spaghetti model looks like ,well spaghetti

https://twitter.com/x/status/1175725512829915136

 

[JoeWras]

I can't remember where I saw it. I think a twitter account. Their background picture is a typical hurricane plot map with a plop of spaghetti noodles tossed on it. Very clever!