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Hurricane and Tropical Talk - 2019 season
Old 09-13-2019, 05:51 AM   #1
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Hurricane and Tropical Talk - 2019 season

Since this season has heated up, I decided to start a more general thread to finish it out.

Dorian has come and gone, creating incomprehensible destruction in the Northern Bahamas, and giving the NC outer banks a pretty good slap.

Today, another storm is brewing that may follow in Dorian's footsteps. This is terrible news for the Bahamas.

On a personal note, I have a few NC based hurricane relief trips scheduled in the upcoming weeks. We don't need anymore storms! One trip is continuing work to fix damage from last year. Another is to ferry out to Ocracoke island and work on tarping and mucking. Mucking is basically ripping out all flood damage and is a first important step to stop mold intrusion.
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Old 09-13-2019, 05:59 AM   #2
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Old 09-13-2019, 06:38 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
Today, another storm is brewing that may follow in Dorian's footsteps. This is terrible news for the Bahamas.
It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.
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Old 09-13-2019, 06:47 AM   #4
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It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.
I believe the storm will be named Humberto. Fernand passed already.
I am sailing out of Port Canaveral on Sunday, right about when the storm might hit. Yes a non hurricane, but will be driving there on Sunday morning.
All part of an exciting start to the cruise. lol
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Old 09-13-2019, 06:58 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by Aerides View Post
It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.
Yeah, not to tempt Porky, but I have to laugh when I see news pundits spending whole segments on the 'dramatic shift' in weather patterns due to (what's the current term? 'global climate change?') One bad storm and they have the final proof. I'm thinking it might take a few seasons to make any conclusions, but that's just me, so YMMV.

If a storm hits YOU, it's definitely a big deal, so I very much have empathy for those affected. Feel really sad for folks in the Bahamas. It must be difficult to deal with days, weeks perhaps months or years of no power, limited water, clean up, body recovery, etc. Thanks JoeWras for what you are doing. Most of us can contribute to immediate help and I'm guessing that most of us do.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:31 AM   #6
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Sea levels are higher. That's not debatable. So even if hurricanes are no more intense, they will cause more damage. Why are sea levels rising? I think that's very obvious, but I'll stop there. It's not a laughing matter though. I'm appalled that you think it is.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:31 AM   #7
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It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.
I beg to differ.

As a relief worker, we pray for sunny skies and calm winds.

Any wind or rain really hampers relief efforts. That's what I was thinking.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:32 AM   #8
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I have opinions on the politics of science and news reporting too, especially with regard to hurricanes. I would love to discuss some day.

But as the OP, I beg of all of us to keep the focus on the season at hand, and not tempt porky.

Thanks.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:43 AM   #9
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Joe, are you doing this for your personal property, to help friends, or just to help people in general?

In any case, good luck, and I hope the weather cooperates with your efforts.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:45 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerides View Post
It's not even a named storm, and has little chance of being worse than a low-grade TS before it exits the bahamas and approaches the middle florida coast, so, while it will make for a rainy, windy weekend, it's not exactly going to exacerbate conditions there.

Given we're in mid-september, and this storm (if it becomes one) will be named Fernand, it's a pretty average season so far.

For reference:
Irma 2017 = Aug 30
Maria 2017 = Sept 16
Matthew 2016 = Sept 28

So, don't get me wrong, all storms suck. Even when they don't hit, they disrupt lives, businesses, schools, and cause a great deal of stress and anxiety. But so far this season isn't out of whack with new normal.
Fernand already happened and gave us some nice rain, the first in many weeks. This one will be Humberto if it makes it to tropical storm.
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Old 09-13-2019, 07:51 AM   #11
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Joe, are you doing this for your personal property, to help friends, or just to help people in general?

In any case, good luck, and I hope the weather cooperates with your efforts.
Thanks.

I'm just in it to help people. I live well inland and have no property at the coast.

I kind of found my calling last year after ER with this gig. I like handyman work, and this scratches the itch. You know, we discuss here "What did you retire TO?" I guess for now, this is it. I have the time and skills. I meet interesting people, and work with really great people. And I can stop anytime.

The people we've been helping have generally lived there a long time (some multi-generational) and have limited means. They are extremely grateful for the help which always lifts spirits.

We generally work inland too. We typically don't do work on the beach rows since those folks generally have the means to support themselves. The Ocracoke flood will be a bit of an exception. Mucking is an overall community health and safety issue. FEMA supports that effort, along with tarping.
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Old 09-13-2019, 08:24 AM   #12
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Mucking is basically ripping out all flood damage and is a first important step to stop mold intrusion.
"I'm a FIRE'd Mucker" is a great way to respond to those who ask what you will ever do with all your new free time.

Sounds like a rewarding way to spend some early retired years. Thank you.
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Old 09-13-2019, 10:06 AM   #13
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I volunteer with Red Cross. Just got back from Charleston, where most of us were released early because the damage was relatively (and fortunately) minimal. So I do keep track of this stuff.

For those who may not have found it, here is the NWS hurricane Page: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ The info is updated frequently and there are many maps and reports that can be called up.

Red Cross is, of course, very interested in weather issues and trends. Here is the ARC weather site, which could be characterized as comprehensive or even as overwhelming: https://maps.redcross.org/website/We...C_Weather.html
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Old 09-13-2019, 11:19 AM   #14
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"I'm a FIRE'd Mucker" is a great way to respond to those who ask what you will ever do with all your new free time.
I may just use that!
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Old 09-15-2019, 12:56 PM   #15
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Too lazy for references...

So, canít say if frequency or intensity of hurricanes/typhoons has increased. But not all storms hit landfall, and not all are of Atlantic or Caribbean origin...
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Old 09-15-2019, 01:32 PM   #16
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Too lazy for references...

So, canít say if frequency or intensity of hurricanes/typhoons has increased. But not all storms hit landfall, and not all are of Atlantic or Caribbean origin...
Just about every weather person I know agrees there are cycles in frequency. But yeah, they diverge as to intensity and strength of cycles. Agendas seem to get in the way, which is too bad.

Humberto appears to be going out to the Atlantic. Bermuda has to be aware, as they always do. Bermuda is vulnerable from many angles. Even so, in 200 years of recording, they've only had 12 direct hits. Many, many near hits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...uda_hurricanes
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Old 09-15-2019, 06:24 PM   #17
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Joe, that’s really great. My husband and I help people locally when we hear of a need. We have taken people to doctor appointment, their pets to the vet, errands, helping elderly with phone calls and paperwork when a spouse dies and have set up in home services.
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Old 09-18-2019, 05:26 AM   #18
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Imelda popped up really fast. I saw some experts confused that the NHC didn't classify it quicker.

In any case, the danger is it may stall in TX. Right now, it has ingested a lot of dry air so Houston and The Woodlands (we have a lot of members there) are not getting a ton of rain, yet. Stay aware. The right side, Beaumont and Port Arthur need to watch for training storms and bands. It could put down a lot of rain.
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Old 09-18-2019, 08:13 AM   #19
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Imelda popped up really fast. I saw some experts confused that the NHC didn't classify it quicker.

In any case, the danger is it may stall in TX. Right now, it has ingested a lot of dry air so Houston and The Woodlands (we have a lot of members there) are not getting a ton of rain, yet. Stay aware. The right side, Beaumont and Port Arthur need to watch for training storms and bands. It could put down a lot of rain.
we got a lot of rain during TS allison - Ike was the one that got me to move though - looks like this one may stall too?
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Old 09-18-2019, 09:07 AM   #20
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we got a lot of rain during TS allison - Ike was the one that got me to move though - looks like this one may stall too?
Moving slow. It is hard to predict the rain bands. So, be on the look out.

Sometimes non-hurricanes (depressions or storms) can cause the worst flooding.
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