Blue Collar Guy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
200,000 Customers still taking it in the shorts. Thats probably about 500,000 people with no juice.
Hurricane Irma
- Thread starter W2R
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I really feel for those in the islands. 
harley
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
aja8888
Moderator Emeritus
Welcome to Dade
Driving south on I-95, never needed a highway sign to tell me I'd crossed into Dade
Many friends had their lives disrupted and experienced property damage, but no one hurt. Glad I left SoFla behind, would have been the second bad one in 12 years. Was tough enough after Wilma and think that one had effects on late DW and me that I didn't understand for many years.
Had a NYC-area co-worker who said in 2009 that he'd rather go through another "financial crisis" than a hurricane. Told him was only because he hadn't been through a hurricane......
I get a little annoyed by the retrospective "I know more than the weather modellers since it didn't go exactly where it was 'predicted'." "Predicted" is in air quotes.
I was in Houston during Ivan (and before it Allison)--Allison came as a complete surprise and such as it was I was grateful for Ivan and the predictions for it. I lived 50 miles north of the coast and the dirty side of Ivan planted the top 1/3 of the huge pine in our back yard in our pool. "Tragedy" I suppose--but if it had come down on the front side of the storm, it probably would have buried itself in our master bedroom.
Allison put a wall of water South of us that would only be matched by Harvey. Luckily only one of our friends were flooded by Harvey (and she was in an area never flooded before), but she "only" got about 2 foot of water. I daresay at least 500,000 Houstonians are affected and it could have been worse, without the weather predictions.
Bottom line is that if you are in the cone of prediction, you should take high precautions. It is true that media simplifies by averaging the spaghetti models with a line that is deceptive, but don't be deceived--look at the cone.
If you read about the Galveston storm of 1900, you might be a little grateful for the development of models and metereology; that was the worst natural disaster in American history and could have killed everyone on Galveston if the hurricane were a category higher. As it was, it "only" killed 8-10,000 (the estimates vary). They never found many of the bodies; then, a few days after, they tried to bury them at sea, only to have them wash back on shore. After that, they burned the bodies.
And Rita, Hugo, Katrina, and Irma could have killed a lot more if the track had wobbled only 30-40 miles. Hugo going west of Galveston would have been a catastrophe like Galevston in 1900, similarly Katrina going west of New Orleans by only 20-30 miles.
And, yes, predictions should be improved. I suppose that is why Congress critters propose cutting funding to the National Hurricane Center in the recent budget proposal--which admittedly everyone in Congress admits is worth a bucket of warm spit, to quote VP Garner. I'm fine if the moderators shut this off for "politics," but what the hell, I say, a**holes. I don't think you can improve modelling by cutting funding--that's why the Euro model is out-performing--but I suppose tying out-performance to funding might be seen as "political." The Euro model has received more funding and, probably more importantly, more computing power tied to funding; that could be why it is out-performing US models, but hey; it's only gubbermint funding.
And, curiously, the Euros aren't much threatened by hurricanes--but what do I know?
In short, my view, is the better our modelling is, the better the savings in lives and property. But then the Galveston predictions were "horrible"--so I guess the "lesson" is that we shouldn't invest in modelling or weather because. . . by the way, we refused to accept Cuban metereological reports at the time, although we probably would have had them too late to help Galveston (the hurricane apparently strengthened not too far off the coast). The chief metereologist reported that the water raised 4 feet in about 5 minutes, and then swept away his house, which was near the highest point of Galveston--and then swept his wife away and drowned her. He saved his 3 children by putting them on a raft of debris, then saw his brother and his two children similarly saved. The neighbors sheltering in the house were never seen again (his wife was later found buried in the debris). None of this is relevant to the argument of course, but Galveston did firm the resolve to invest in funding of meteorological science. That was then; this is now when metereological research I suppose is "controversial" or "political."
Anyway, read the accounts of the 1900 hundred hurricane at Galveston and post back on how hurricane modelling is a waste of money. My response is usually to move all your loved ones onto Galveston--which curiously, no-one wants to do. In theory, they're good with cutting hurricane research--as long as you and your loved ones aren't at risk. Sad.
Rant off. Sorry. I'm grateful for modelling and just wish we would resolve to improve it further. It's gotten a damn sight better in the last 10-20 years and not by accident. It took resources.
I was in Houston during Ivan (and before it Allison)--Allison came as a complete surprise and such as it was I was grateful for Ivan and the predictions for it. I lived 50 miles north of the coast and the dirty side of Ivan planted the top 1/3 of the huge pine in our back yard in our pool. "Tragedy" I suppose--but if it had come down on the front side of the storm, it probably would have buried itself in our master bedroom.
Allison put a wall of water South of us that would only be matched by Harvey. Luckily only one of our friends were flooded by Harvey (and she was in an area never flooded before), but she "only" got about 2 foot of water. I daresay at least 500,000 Houstonians are affected and it could have been worse, without the weather predictions.
Bottom line is that if you are in the cone of prediction, you should take high precautions. It is true that media simplifies by averaging the spaghetti models with a line that is deceptive, but don't be deceived--look at the cone.
If you read about the Galveston storm of 1900, you might be a little grateful for the development of models and metereology; that was the worst natural disaster in American history and could have killed everyone on Galveston if the hurricane were a category higher. As it was, it "only" killed 8-10,000 (the estimates vary). They never found many of the bodies; then, a few days after, they tried to bury them at sea, only to have them wash back on shore. After that, they burned the bodies.
And Rita, Hugo, Katrina, and Irma could have killed a lot more if the track had wobbled only 30-40 miles. Hugo going west of Galveston would have been a catastrophe like Galevston in 1900, similarly Katrina going west of New Orleans by only 20-30 miles.
And, yes, predictions should be improved. I suppose that is why Congress critters propose cutting funding to the National Hurricane Center in the recent budget proposal--which admittedly everyone in Congress admits is worth a bucket of warm spit, to quote VP Garner. I'm fine if the moderators shut this off for "politics," but what the hell, I say, a**holes. I don't think you can improve modelling by cutting funding--that's why the Euro model is out-performing--but I suppose tying out-performance to funding might be seen as "political." The Euro model has received more funding and, probably more importantly, more computing power tied to funding; that could be why it is out-performing US models, but hey; it's only gubbermint funding.
And, curiously, the Euros aren't much threatened by hurricanes--but what do I know?
In short, my view, is the better our modelling is, the better the savings in lives and property. But then the Galveston predictions were "horrible"--so I guess the "lesson" is that we shouldn't invest in modelling or weather because. . . by the way, we refused to accept Cuban metereological reports at the time, although we probably would have had them too late to help Galveston (the hurricane apparently strengthened not too far off the coast). The chief metereologist reported that the water raised 4 feet in about 5 minutes, and then swept away his house, which was near the highest point of Galveston--and then swept his wife away and drowned her. He saved his 3 children by putting them on a raft of debris, then saw his brother and his two children similarly saved. The neighbors sheltering in the house were never seen again (his wife was later found buried in the debris). None of this is relevant to the argument of course, but Galveston did firm the resolve to invest in funding of meteorological science. That was then; this is now when metereological research I suppose is "controversial" or "political."
Anyway, read the accounts of the 1900 hundred hurricane at Galveston and post back on how hurricane modelling is a waste of money. My response is usually to move all your loved ones onto Galveston--which curiously, no-one wants to do. In theory, they're good with cutting hurricane research--as long as you and your loved ones aren't at risk. Sad.
Rant off. Sorry. I'm grateful for modelling and just wish we would resolve to improve it further. It's gotten a damn sight better in the last 10-20 years and not by accident. It took resources.
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My final point is that the models predicted Harvey could take a track similar to Allison. Allison was not modelled, but at least there was warning for Harvey.
I didn't believe that anything could be worse than Allison for rainfall , since Allison stalled right off the coast (and started just as a depression right off the coast before developing in one day, so it's definitely an anomaly) and dumped band over band after band over Houston and Beaumont and Port Arthur--but that's exactly what Harvey did, only more since it was more intense.
It's good to get a warning that you might get 40-50" of rainfall in the next 3 days. You can get your kayak out.
I didn't believe that anything could be worse than Allison for rainfall , since Allison stalled right off the coast (and started just as a depression right off the coast before developing in one day, so it's definitely an anomaly) and dumped band over band after band over Houston and Beaumont and Port Arthur--but that's exactly what Harvey did, only more since it was more intense.
It's good to get a warning that you might get 40-50" of rainfall in the next 3 days. You can get your kayak out.
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- Joined
- Sep 10, 2006
- Messages
- 4,071
I'd really like to get shutters for our townhouse so that we feel more comfortable sheltering in place for the next one. This is the reason we evacuated - the high winds. It was projected to possibly be a CAT4 coming over us at the time we left. Our roof meets the hurricane standards set in 2002, but our 2nd story is wood construction (first level concrete block). I had read that if a window breaks you are at higher risk of your roof being pulled off. Being a Florida newbie, we decided we weren't ready to risk riding out a CAT4 without shutters.
We weren't as concerned about flooding since we are at a pretty good elevation and are in a low to moderate risk zone (but we still have flood insurance, just in case). We are about 2 miles inland from the ocean.
However, it is a big job thinking about getting up on a high ladder to put shutters up on the 2nd story windows. Sure didn't think about that when we chose a townhome for our home here!
I'm curious if anyone has recommendations for shutters that are fairly easy to put up while up high on a ladder. Some of my neighbors put up plywood and a few put up some other kind of shutters (need to go talk to them still for their feedback).
We weren't as concerned about flooding since we are at a pretty good elevation and are in a low to moderate risk zone (but we still have flood insurance, just in case). We are about 2 miles inland from the ocean.
However, it is a big job thinking about getting up on a high ladder to put shutters up on the 2nd story windows. Sure didn't think about that when we chose a townhome for our home here!
I'm curious if anyone has recommendations for shutters that are fairly easy to put up while up high on a ladder. Some of my neighbors put up plywood and a few put up some other kind of shutters (need to go talk to them still for their feedback).
Dash man
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I'd really like to get shutters for our townhouse so that we feel more comfortable sheltering in place for the next one. This is the reason we evacuated - the high winds. It was projected to possibly be a CAT4 coming over us at the time we left. Our roof meets the hurricane standards set in 2002, but our 2nd story is wood construction (first level concrete block). I had read that if a window breaks you are at higher risk of your roof being pulled off. Being a Florida newbie, we decided we weren't ready to risk riding out a CAT4 without shutters.
We weren't as concerned about flooding since we are at a pretty good elevation and are in a low to moderate risk zone (but we still have flood insurance, just in case). We are about 2 miles inland from the ocean.
However, it is a big job thinking about getting up on a high ladder to put shutters up on the 2nd story windows. Sure didn't think about that when we chose a townhome for our home here!
I'm curious if anyone has recommendations for shutters that are fairly easy to put up while up high on a ladder. Some of my neighbors put up plywood and a few put up some other kind of shutters (need to go talk to them still for their feedback).
You may want to consider having hurricane shutters professionally installed. They need to be properly anchored to be effective. We have hurricane windows for our eighth floor condo right on the beach. It's another option but probably too costly for a townhouse until you need to replace your windows.
atmsmshr
Full time employment: Posting here.
I'd really like to get shutters for our townhouse so that we feel more comfortable sheltering in place for the next one. This is the reason we evacuated - the high winds. It was projected to possibly be a CAT4 coming over us at the time we left. Our roof meets the hurricane standards set in 2002, but our 2nd story is wood construction (first level concrete block). I had read that if a window breaks you are at higher risk of your roof being pulled off. Being a Florida newbie, we decided we weren't ready to risk riding out a CAT4 without shutters.
We weren't as concerned about flooding since we are at a pretty good elevation and are in a low to moderate risk zone (but we still have flood insurance, just in case). We are about 2 miles inland from the ocean.
However, it is a big job thinking about getting up on a high ladder to put shutters up on the 2nd story windows. Sure didn't think about that when we chose a townhome for our home here!
I'm curious if anyone has recommendations for shutters that are fairly easy to put up while up high on a ladder. Some of my neighbors put up plywood and a few put up some other kind of shutters (need to go talk to them still for their feedback).
Now that we are older (and DW is disabled) I put in an order for accordion shutters that can be closed from the inside. Hurricaneshuttersflorida.com had the best prices for Big Bertha HV. Price quotes are online. They are quickly getting a backlog. I am tired of hauling shutters around the house.
Also looked at impact windows yesterday. $1-2k per window installed depending on trim. Ouch. Think we will use rated Bahama shutters on the streetwise view instead, and impact only for the front bay window.
Probably a new front door for $2k. Already have a $2k Kevlar screen for the 10' x 20' pool porch that was storm tested during Wilma.
Have to figure out what to do with the skylights.
Living in the subtropical paradise can get expensive.
Blue Collar Guy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
As of 9 AM today 87,116, customers without power. Now they are no longer required to report outages to state agencies as they have fallen below some magic trigger number. I read an article where the power company said 100 % of customers in an area had power. The speaker almost got lynched ,hahahah, the people there were looking for his hide, they had no power and he just said they did.
I tip my hat to the guys in Fla. working on getting the power and infrastructure up and going . Key West has power and the local businesses are wanting the tourists .
Yesterday Key West had its first commercial airliner since the storm . Delta from Atlanta . By Saturday everyone will be back in the air to Key West.
The really sad situation with the Keys is there is now no longer any affordable housing .
Yesterday Key West had its first commercial airliner since the storm . Delta from Atlanta . By Saturday everyone will be back in the air to Key West.
The really sad situation with the Keys is there is now no longer any affordable housing .
Blue Collar Guy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
You can go on the waiting list. https://affordablehousingonline.com/housing-authority/Florida/Housing-Authority-of-Key-West/FL013
Blue Collar Guy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
There are 4 power companies reporting numbers for outages. I tallied them at about 5000 customers without juice. These are the numbers they are admitting to. The actual number is much higher.
Blue Collar Guy
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
As of 3PM today 5,987 customers without power , thats a solid 2 weeks.
Funny. Hurricane Wilma ('05) took down the power grid for 2 weeks for most of South Florida. To avoid a recurrence, Florida Power implemented a "storm surcharge", collecting an additional $3B to reinforce the infrastructure and prevent a similar situation. Wool poles were replaced with taller concrete poles, and transmission structures and substations were reinforced or replaced.
This time, the power went down even earlier in the storm cycle, and affected about the same percentage of population and geography. They have managed to get it back up and running sooner, with much of the area back online within a week.
AT&T and Comcast internet have also been severely disrupted, but we don't know the extent, as both companies refuse to disclose details.
This time, the power went down even earlier in the storm cycle, and affected about the same percentage of population and geography. They have managed to get it back up and running sooner, with much of the area back online within a week.
AT&T and Comcast internet have also been severely disrupted, but we don't know the extent, as both companies refuse to disclose details.
Moemg
Gone but not forgotten
The power outages were weird . We lost power for a day but two blocks away lost it for a week . I went to book club in a very wooded area and their power never even flickered but a friend who lives in a very expensive CCRC nearby lost power in her apartment for three days .
The editor of the Keynoter (twice-weekly Keys paper) recounts his experience with Irma in the Keys. Interesting that he talks about analysis-paralysis delaying his departure thus making it impossible for him to evacuate in time.
Florida Keys newspaper editor rode out Hurricane Irma in Marathon shelter, ended up in hospital, but would do it again | Miami Herald
omni
Florida Keys newspaper editor rode out Hurricane Irma in Marathon shelter, ended up in hospital, but would do it again | Miami Herald
omni
- Joined
- Sep 10, 2006
- Messages
- 4,071
That was a really interesting story - thanks for sharing. I so get that analysis paralysis. We experienced the same - but as soon as we finally made a decision, we packed up and were out of our place within an hour. Sooooooo stressful - no matter whether you decide to stay or go.
People here are still talking about "post hurricane stress syndrome".
There have been a number of reports in Local Fl news that the Florida Keys are “now open for business”, effective Oct 1, and this is now confirmed by the Fl Keys web site Florida Keys Reopen to Visitors After Irma
Yes , we understand Key West is open for business . Every year we do the Fantasy Fest at the end of October . Our Hotel is Not open for business yet . We had heard that 50 rooms had water damage . Last weekend our Krewe had a group go to KW to scope it out. They said the upper Keys were really in bad shape and there were still piles of trash in a few areas of Key West . Duval street was fine . We are sponsored by Captain Tony's bar and they are still being rebuilt.
Cruise ships are already stopping , but a few of the street vendors are gone.
Sure hope we have a great Fantasy Fest this year!
Cruise ships are already stopping , but a few of the street vendors are gone.
Sure hope we have a great Fantasy Fest this year!
