Hurricane Irma

[W2R]

Can we just hope this hurricane fizzles now? This morning's graphic (above) makes it look pretty bad for New Orleans. Last night, it looked like it would head up the east coast. Guess it's still to early to tell but not too early to worry.

I'm going to forcefully broach the topic of evacuation with F this afternoon. We will not evacuate unless Irma enters the Gulf of Mexico, but we need to start thinking about which car to take, or both, and things like that.

We haven't evacuated since Hurricane Isaac in 2012 so we're a bit rusty.

[gromit]

Here are some spaghetti model tracks. I'm not enough of a weather nerd to really know the difference between the two sets, but vaguely recall maybe that the set on the left is collected from an international group, while the set on the right is more US based. If you are reassured any by the turn in the tracks I must warn you that the turns have been moved further west than just a few days ago.
Weathernerds TC Guidance

(fyi: The numbers in the charts are hours)

[W2R]

Yes, I saw those. This morning, seems that (as you mentioned) everything has shifted further west. For now, that is. Who knows? Tomorrow is another day. It's just too early to tell.

I think the take-away is that it looks like somebody is going to get slammed, but we don't yet know who. In particular, we have found that until a storm enters the Gulf of Mexico, it is useless for us to worry here in New Orleans because it is almost always too far out for the NHC to tell us if it is headed here or not.

I'd be especially worried if I lived in south Florida.

[FiveDriver]

We're doing some of the Preparation things today and Tuesday, just to get ahead of the crowds. Sept/Oct can be iffy around here. If Irma stumbles onto the warmer Gulf Stream waters, it might tag us on the East Coast. The way West Africa spins off these Tropical Depressions this time of year......it's better to be ready.

I'll get fresh batteries for the flashlights and lanterns. And a couple of cases of bottled water before the price goes up. I have a few empty milk containers to fill with tap water to keep on hand, and a big cooler -- if the Power goes out, we'll grill on the BBQ. The Hurry-Cane Shutters are ready in the Garage. All of the valuables are easily stuffed into our Go Bag if a hasty exit is needed.

We'll wait to see where things are by mid-week.

[gromit]

Here is a link to a long page that is a compilation of weather graphics from across the web. Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FiveDriver We're doing some of the Preparation things today and Tuesday, just to get ahead of the crowds. Sept/Oct can be iffy around here. If Irma stumbles onto the warmer Gulf Stream waters, it might tag us on the East Coast. The way West Africa spins off these Tropical Depressions this time of year......it's better to be ready. I'll get fresh batteries for the flashlights and lanterns. And a couple of cases of bottled water before the price goes up. I have a few empty milk containers to fill with tap water to keep on hand, and a big cooler -- if the Power goes out, we'll grill on the BBQ. The Hurry-Cane Shutters are ready in the Garage. All of the valuables are easily stuffed into our Go Bag if a hasty exit is needed. We'll wait to see where things are by mid-week.

I think that is very wise. I am hoping for the best for Charleston but it sure hasn't looked good for your area in previous NHC tracks. Other graphics from various models are interesting and are used by the NHC along with other data when they make their predicted tracks. Like gromit, I think these individual model graphics can give us a sense of where a hurricane is headed when it is further out. But still, I think the NHC has the best track record. Their predictions have been pretty good for direction and are improving for intensity.

I'm not sure whether we will go or not, if it heads in our direction. Hopefully it won't, or it will fizzle. We need to make plans just in case, though. The older we get, the more likely we are to evacuate because we are no longer as young and strong as we once were.

[mpeirce]

It's good to be prepared.

My DM hasn't experienced a big hurricane since she moved to Ft Lauderdale a couple of year ago. She's not on the beach, but close enough that she's already made reservations at a hotel well inland in case she has to evacuate. Luckily she has new hurricane windows and her building has survived quite a few past hurricanes.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mpeirce It's good to be prepared. My DM hasn't experienced a big hurricane since she moved to Ft Lauderdale a couple of year ago. She's not on the beach, but close enough that she's already made reservations at a hotel well inland in case she has to evacuate. Luckily she has new hurricane windows and her building has survived quite a few past hurricanes.

Sounds like she has got a good handle on things, and I'm glad she is not on the beach.

[Dancer373]

I think everyone who lives in a state on the gulf coast gets nervous, especially after Hurricane Harvey, when a potential hurricane might enter the gulf. I'm a little east of Tallahassee and we had Hermine last year which woke up quite a few people. Of course nothing like New Orleans or Houston has hit in the 35 years I've lived here. I still get/stay prepared just in case. The one time you don't might be the time Mother Nature comes to get you.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dancer373 I think everyone who lives in a state on the gulf coast gets nervous, especially after Hurricane Harvey, when a potential hurricane might enter the gulf. I'm a little east of Tallahassee and we had Hermine last year which woke up quite a few people. Of course nothing like New Orleans or Houston has hit in the 35 years I've lived here. I still get/stay prepared just in case. The one time you don't might be the time Mother Nature comes to get you.

That's for sure. I guess that is why we are starting to make some tentative plans, just in case. We don't think it is likely that Irma will come here, but it is helpful to think these things through in advance.

We decided today that if it turns out we need to evacuate, then we will go together in my car because it is in better shape. I have a list of what I am going to take, which isn't much, on my computer desktop where it has been for 18 years. I update it now and then, and probably should do that again this afternoon. He can fill up the rest of my Venza with his stuff. He can park his Murano in my garage during the (tentative) evacuation time. We both called in prescriptions to be refilled before crunch time.

That was enough planning for today. Tomorrow it may be clearer where Irma is headed. The latest advisory from the NHC said,

Quote:

Originally Posted by NHC There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

So far they are just specifying Florida and the Keys.

[Walt34]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R We will not evacuate unless Irma enters the Gulf of Mexico, but we need to start thinking about which car to take, or both, and things like that.

Say, if you decide to bug out maybe you could keep going north for a while longer than initially planned and make the Wash D.C. area meetup next Saturday. The last time we had the remnants of a hurricane here it was down to a steady drizzle and 25-mph winds.

[Dancer373]

Here's an interesting map that you can adjust to what you need

https://maps.floridadisaster.org/gator/map.html

[Sunset]

Good to prepare now, and most if not all preparations are not a waste of money, even if not used.

Great time to fill the car with gas, maybe get an extra can of gas for generator (or car) and buy some water, or fill clean jugs, and stock on on some canned food, while continuing to eat from the freezer.

I have been though a tiny hurricane in Baltimore, I parked my car on the 2nd highest level of a parking garage and left it there for the storm. I didn't want to park on the street, where tree branches or trees would crush the car. Being high up it couldn't flood either.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dancer373 Here's an interesting map that you can adjust to what you need https://maps.floridadisaster.org/gator/map.html

Thanks, I never saw that before.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sunset Good to prepare now, and most if not all preparations are not a waste of money, even if not used. Great time to fill the car with gas, maybe get an extra can of gas for generator (or car) and buy some water, or fill clean jugs, and stock on on some canned food, while continuing to eat from the freezer. I have been though a tiny hurricane in Baltimore, I parked my car on the 2nd highest level of a parking garage and left it there for the storm. I didn't want to park on the street, where tree branches or trees would crush the car. Being high up it couldn't flood either.

All good, solid hurricane preparations. Thanks. Some other tasks, mostly last minute ones, that I have on my hurricane list are:

getting an oil change for the car and any other maintenance needed,
hitting the ATM
doing laundry
making plenty of ice
emptying the refrigerator/freezer completely
put the trash can in the garage
grilling some meat for the trip
filling the ice chest
fill the bath tub
bringing in lawn furniture and other "missiles" from the yard
shutting off electricity
Lifting valuable items/furniture up off the floor
gathering things together that I plan to take and starting to pack
Put some paper maps in the car in case the cell towers are down

There are more... but, this far out, with no projected landfall in my area, I don't really need to get started on any of this.

[W2R]

Jeff Masters over at wunderground dot com, said an hour ago:

Quote:

Tropical storm-force winds are expected to begin affecting the east coast of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday night (Figure 1 below). An evacuation decision for the Florida Keys may have to come as early as Tuesday, since the Keys require 3+ days to evacuate. As of 5 pm EDT, far southeast Florida, including Miami, was in the 5-day cone of uncertainty for Irma.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/th...ensifying-irma

He also says that Irma is now a Category 4 hurricane and he still expects it to go up the East Coast.

[Dancer373]

The Governor of Florida just called a state of emergency ahead of Irma

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dancer373 The Governor of Florida just called a state of emergency ahead of Irma

Very smart. Sadly, all the info I am seeing says Florida is going to get pounded no matter how you look at it. When I think of all the elderly in Florida, I worry about the potential death toll.

A local head TV meteorologist just said that it looks like we are in the clear here in New Orleans, but that as always we should keep an eye on the storm. A lot depends on timing of various meteorological events.

[MichaelB]

Most of South Florida has above ground electrical, so when a powerful storm hits head on, like Wilma in '05, it takes the system down. Most of Dade and Broward counties were without power for more than a week. The potable water supply was contaminated by overflow, so the instructions were to boil all water before using. Hard to do when there is no power. There was nothing to be had - food, water, ice. Emergency water was trucked in, but with no power, there was no way to let people know. Calling a state of emergency this early is a good move, but only if it is followed by some real preparation - by residents and emergency crews alike.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Most of South Florida has above ground electrical, so when a powerful storm hits head on, like Wilma in '05, it takes the system down. Most of Dade and Broward counties were without power for more than a week. The potable water supply was contaminated by overflow, so the instructions were to boil all water before using. Hard to do when there is no power. There was nothing to be had - food, water, ice. Emergency water was trucked in, but with no power, there was no way to let people know. Calling a state of emergency this early is a good move, but only if it is followed by some real preparation - by residents and emergency crews alike.

That's a very scary situation. Living with no power, no water, no food, no ice sounds like such a nightmare. I think that if I lived in S. Florida, I'd be planning to get out of there ASAP, like, tomorrow.

I have found a great secret regarding evacuations, for anyone planning to leave. We always leave about 3:15 AM. That's too late for the "night people" to be leaving, and too early for the "morning people", so traffic is minimal. We left New Orleans about 28 hours before Katrina got here, and just sailed on up the interstate at a nice, steady 55 mph. Those leaving during the daytime had to endure stop-and-go the whole way.