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Old 10-23-2015, 03:45 PM   #21
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I watched all the damage that IKE caused on TV but what shocked me the most was when I finally was able to drive back into Galveston a few weeks later was to see the Balinese Room was completely gone. (not torn apart, it was gone.) Built and opened in the 1920's it was a very interesting part of Texas history.
I totally get that. TV images cannot portray the depth or extent of destruction.
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Old 10-23-2015, 03:54 PM   #22
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oh yeah that thing just went straight out to sea - rumor is that the reason they built it so far out into the water was so they could turn over the gambling tables before the TX rangers could make it to the front door
I believe, that's a true story (about hiding the gaming tables). I still have a couple of casino chips that came from the Balinese Room and I know someone who worked there. For those not as familiar with Texas, when he says Texas Rangers, he's not talking about a baseball team.
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Old 10-23-2015, 03:59 PM   #23
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This gives an idea of what different winds can do. Chilling.

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Old 10-23-2015, 04:06 PM   #24
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This gives an idea of what different winds can do. Chilling.

Whoah! And there isn't anything left to destroy after they get to 156 mph, and they are predicting 200 mph, with higher gusts?

-ERD50
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Old 10-23-2015, 04:26 PM   #25
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Here's a live web cam at La Manzanilla. I've been watching the storm surge come in.
La Manzanilla Beach cam
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Old 10-23-2015, 04:44 PM   #26
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Here's a live web cam at La Manzanilla. I've been watching the storm surge come in.
La Manzanilla Beach cam
Very cool! Thanks.
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Old 10-23-2015, 05:12 PM   #27
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Yeah the wind has really picked up in the last few minutes- the trees are being whipped around. It would be cool if there was live sound too. Glad I'm not there.

Ack, the camera was just blown over. It's pointing downward now. See the water is almost to it.

<edit> someone just fixed the camera. Thanks!
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Old 10-23-2015, 05:13 PM   #28
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Yeah the wind has really picked up in the last few minutes- the trees are being whipped around. It would be cool if there was live sound too. Glad I'm not there.

Ack, the camera was just blown over. It's pointing downward now. See the water is almost to it.
It is back up. Must have been the guy who walked in front of it a few minutes ago.

EDited: Now it is off for good (one hopes).
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Old 10-23-2015, 05:24 PM   #29
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Many pictures and video from that webcam on twitter: https://twitter.com/search?q=manzani...Ctwgr%5Esearch
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Old 10-23-2015, 05:45 PM   #30
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Our family compound in Cabo got hit last year by ODILE. It was a monster storm. This one is quite a bit bigger. Scary stuff.
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Old 10-23-2015, 07:09 PM   #31
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I was in Cabo two weeks ago. I found the locals to be incredibly kind and gracious. My heart is breaking for the people in PV. Many of their homes could probably not withstand a CAT 1 hurricane. And, like someone else said they didn't get much advanced warning.
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Old 10-23-2015, 09:52 PM   #32
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Should be an interesting F1 race in Austin this weekend
I don't think Austin will see Patricia this weekend. But they are already dealing with another, unrelated deluge.

According to the tracks, they don't show anything after Saturday afternoon still in Mexico, indicating that it will be considered dissipated by then. Which is fine by me as early projected paths had it sweeping through south Texas.
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Old 10-23-2015, 09:52 PM   #33
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I just heard about this storm this morning. According to what I read, at this time, it's 200mph sustained winds and 245mph in gust. That's some wind. I've seen (been in) ~110 substained and ~125 gust hurricane winds. Can't imagine the strength of over 200mph winds.
It was only a tropical storm before Wednesday night - so "Surprise!!!"

Made landfall at 165mph !!!!

How fast - http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...icia.html?_r=0
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Old 10-24-2015, 07:11 AM   #34
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Whoah! And there isn't anything left to destroy after they get to 156 mph, and they are predicting 200 mph, with higher gusts?

-ERD50
IIRC my physics, the force against a surface of a 200 mph wind is NOT twice as strong as a 100 mph wind, it is 3 times. The force cubes vs doubles.
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Old 10-24-2015, 09:39 AM   #35
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IIRC my physics, the force against a surface of a 200 mph wind is NOT twice as strong as a 100 mph wind, it is 3 times. The force cubes vs doubles.
I think you are correct that the force of the wind is cubed with velocity. But a doubling cubed is 8x, not 3x. Yes, a 200 mph wind has eight times the force of a 100 mph wind.

Unless both of our physics memory is wrong (mine sure could be). But I'm certain it is at least a square function, which would be four time the force.

Hah - it's more complex than that (no wonder my memory is foggy):


from wiki (Drag):

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Drag force is proportional to the velocity for a laminar flow and the squared velocity for a turbulent flow.

...

For high velocities (or more precisely, at high Reynolds number) drag will vary as the square of velocity. Thus, the resultant power needed to overcome this drag will vary as the cube of velocity.
So I guess they add the linear force, and the squared force? I didn't go deep enough to determine if >100 mph air speed is considered 'high velocity', but considering speed of sound is ~ 700 mph, I would think 100 is 'high'.

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Old 10-24-2015, 09:54 AM   #36
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It appears that the storm did limited damage because the 200 mph area around the eye was restricted to a small swath. Also its path took in the mountainous region south of PV where it quickly lost the power picked up from the 30 degree ocean waters.

No serious damage to PV. Mainly just travel disruption for the air travelers.
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Old 10-24-2015, 10:05 AM   #37
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It appears that the storm did limited damage because the 200 mph area around the eye was restricted to a small swath. Also its path took in the mountainous region south of PV where it quickly lost the power picked up from the 30 degree ocean waters.

No serious damage to PV. Mainly just travel disruption for the air travelers.
Kcowan, thanks for your post. It is great to hear that PV, and you, are OK.
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Old 10-24-2015, 10:05 AM   #38
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Wind speed has to be very slow for a laminar flow. Even the slightest breeze already causes turbulence behind an object. So, for all practical purposes the drag force is always considered to vary as the square of speed.

Aerodynamicists always use D = 1/2 rho A Cd V^2. I myself have not encountered an application where they work in the linear region (I am not an aerodynamicist), but guess that must be very special.
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Old 10-24-2015, 10:37 AM   #39
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I think you are correct that the force of the wind is cubed with velocity. But a doubling cubed is 8x, not 3x. Yes, a 200 mph wind has eight times the force of a 100 mph wind.

Unless both of our physics memory is wrong (mine sure could be). But I'm certain it is at least a square function, which would be four time the force.

-ERD50
Interesting info but personally, I don't need pencil and paper, a calculator or mathematical formulas to know that 200+mph winds hitting most residential structures built today = a lot of destruction
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Old 10-24-2015, 05:26 PM   #40
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Well, it didn't take long for Patricia to get her own Wikipedia entry!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Patricia

Thank goodness the immediate effects have been far less severe than anticipated. Of course there will be a risk of mudslides and flooding.
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