Hybrid Car Break Even Point

[Big_Hitter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 I know someone who qualified for an additional $600 discount (or maybe $1000?), dependent on taking out a loan. Paid the loan in fill after the first payment. Hmmm, $600 for a few $ for one month's interest? Sounds smart to me. -ERD50

when I bought my ranger 3 years ago to get a $5K Ferd discount I had to take out a FMC loan - I paid it off right away


I thought it was pretty silly


got a good deal on the ranger - brand new 4x4 $19K sticker was 29K

[Mr._Graybeard]

Yeah, but to get those kind of incentives you usually have to buy a new car (or certified used, at least). The incentives you get up front don't make up for the depreciation that follows, IMO.

[Big_Hitter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr._Graybeard Yeah, but to get those kind of incentives you usually have to buy a new car (or certified used, at least). The incentives you get up front don't make up for the depreciation that follows, IMO.

it was new, still smells new, has under 8K on the clock

I bet KBB trade in on it is about what I paid for it - $19K


http://www.kbb.com/ford/ranger-super...etype=trade-in


yep, $21K according to KBB

[Chuckanut]

Now that the price of gasoline in my area has gone up almost $1.40 per gallon from its low a few years ago, I can dial up the gloat-o-meter as I drive around in my hybrid.

Note: the $1.40 increase also includes higher gas taxes passed a few years ago when the price of gasoline was near a multi-year low.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut Now that the price of gasoline in my area has gone up almost $1.40 per gallon from its low a few years ago, I can dial up the gloat-o-meter as I drive around in my hybrid. Note: the $1.40 increase also includes higher gas taxes passed a few years ago when the price of gasoline was near a multi-year low.

How many miles do you drive a year?


We don't drive much, and split that pretty evenly between the two cars, so only ~ 6,000 miles per year on each vehicle. I don't think the math would work for us with those low miles.


But the engineering side of me is very interested in these newer hybrids that can run right up to highway speeds on electric alone, then switch to an efficient ICE to work together. They only have enough battery capacity to stay in EV mode for maybe 10~15 miles (so battery expense/space isn't as much of an issue), but that's enough for many short trips, which means you aren't doing as much start/stop of the ICE - and that's where much of the emissions are generated.


I really think that is the future, there are some new ICE designs that manage diesel-like efficiency on gasoline, with lower emissions than either.


Being able to run EV mode alone for a while means you can start up that ICE before you actually need it, and keep it disconnected from the wheels while the ICE runs a special 'warm up' mode, designed to get it warmed up into low emission mode as fast as possible, independent of the driver demands to start/stop/accelerate. And the battery/motor can take over acceleration, and allow the ICE to stay in its 'sweet spot' of power/emissions.


-ERD50

[street]

That is pretty cool.

[meierlde]

Just out of curiosity do the hybrids stay in electric mode in parking lots most of the time. Since that is low speed it would seem to be a likely mode. (also electric in reverse)

[meierlde]

I did a bit of figuring and the algorithm is find the difference in gallons/mi between the hybrid and non hybrid versions (1/mpg) then find the cost differential. Take say 100k miles and multiply by the gallons per mile difference and you will get a number of gallons required for 100k miles. Divide the price differential by the number of gallons and you get the break even price for a hybrid over a non hybrid (It did this with the Chevy Malibu LT vs Hybrid and for 100k miles it works out to around 2.70 a gallon.

[Scrapr]

Quote:

Originally Posted by meierlde Just out of curiosity do the hybrids stay in electric mode in parking lots most of the time. Since that is low speed it would seem to be a likely mode. (also electric in reverse)

Yes that is correct. In our company Prius I would "sneak up" on people in parking lots. I called it stealth mode. People can't hear you coming. And at low speed the tires don't make much noise. Kind odfhave to be careful as a driver about that

[CaptTom]

Quote:

Originally Posted by manerac And to think we mainly bought it for the wonderful feeling of superiority it gives us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CasJbu2MJp8

[Chuckanut]

I drive anywhere from 12,000 to 15,000 miles a year.

My original break even point was approx 60,000 miles. But the past few year’s drop in gasoline prices has moved it to about 80,000 miles. Since I intend to drive it well over 100,000 miles - ill still do OK, just not as OK as before. . It also has a 600 mile range driving at normal highway speed - 65 mph.

Mine is a 2012 model. The 2018 models get even better mileage. Check out a 2018 Camry 51/53. It’s at least 10% better than my 2012.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut I drive anywhere from 12,000 to 15,000 miles a year. My original break even point was approx 60,000 miles. But the past few year’s drop in gasoline prices has moved it to about 80,000 miles. Since I intend to drive it well over 100,000 miles - ill still do OK, just not as OK as before. . It also has a 600 mile range driving at normal highway speed - 65 mph. Mine is a 2012 model. The 2018 models get even better mileage. Check out a 2018 Camry 51/53. It’s at least 10% better than my 2012.

Does that break even analysis take into account the cost of capital? I find most times that is ignored. But 6 years of some assumed gain (4%?) isn't peanuts, depending on what your cost differential was.


-ERD50

[Alan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by meierlde Just out of curiosity do the hybrids stay in electric mode in parking lots most of the time. Since that is low speed it would seem to be a likely mode. (also electric in reverse)

Mine usually stays in electric mode when reversing but when the engine is cold when I first start it up the ICE comes on pretty quickly, so if I know that I am just doing a bit of maneuvering such as getting the car in and out of the garage then immediately after pressing the power button I press the EV mode button. It will then stay in EV mode until either the battery power drops too low or the speed goes over 15mph.

I did consider a plug-in version of the hybrid where it would stay on battery power for up to 30 minutes at highway speeds but we don’t do enough mileage to really justify the extra cost.

[Music Lover]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Being able to run EV mode alone for a while means you can start up that ICE before you actually need it, and keep it disconnected from the wheels while the ICE runs a special 'warm up' mode, designed to get it warmed up into low emission mode as fast as possible, independent of the driver demands to start/stop/accelerate. And the battery/motor can take over acceleration, and allow the ICE to stay in its 'sweet spot' of power/emissions. -ERD50

Running an engine just to warm it up but not using it to move the vehicle is a waste of fuel. It will warm up faster under load, plus is moving the vehicle at the same time.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Music Lover Running an engine just to warm it up but not using it to move the vehicle is a waste of fuel. It will warm up faster under load, plus is moving the vehicle at the same time.

True, but that's not what they do. Their engineers are pretty smart.

They can start the ICE and load it optimally at each stage of warm up by adjusting the generator load - which would be charging the batteries and/or providing juice directly to the electric drive motors. And/or connect it to the drive wheels if that fits the profile at that time.

That is far better than what happens w/o a hybrid with a full EV mode. You start the engine, and it has to do whatever you tell it to. For some people, that sometimes means accelerating up to highway speeds before the engine has fully warmed up. That is far from optimal.

That's the advantage of a full EV mode (though it may have very limited EV-mode range) - the ICE can be disconnected form the wheels when that is optimal. Do with the ICE whatever is needed to optimize fuel consumption and emissions. Then engage the ICE to the wheels when that is optimal. It's a very flexible system.

And it is important for max efficiency that the engine can be connected to the drive wheels when that fits. Connecting directly eliminates the losses of generating electricity (mechanical to electrical conversion) and then converting it back from electrical to mechanical with the motor. Or worse, to have to use the battery as an intermediate step, then you add battery charge/discharge losses to that.

-ERD50

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Does that break even analysis take into account the cost of capital? I find most times that is ignored. But 6 years of some assumed gain (4%?) isn't peanuts, depending on what your cost differential was. -ERD50

Good Point. The answer is no.

Back when the I bought the car I really thought that gasoline would be headed to $4 a gallon and more. That would have really juiced the payback! That prediction proved about as good as my interest rate predictions.

A quick back of the envelope estimate using 7% return for investments indicates that I may have to go about 100,000 miles to get my opportunity cost back. Calculating the payback reminds me of calculating the break even age for taking SS. If only we could predict the future. Note: according to GasBuddy my area has some of the most expensive gasoline in the USA.

[48Fire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut Here's an interesting site that show the potential breakeven points of buying a hybrid auto versus a regular gasoline automobile. Play around with the Personalize button to see how a change in gas prices affects the the breakeven period. https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hybridCompare.jsp I noticed that the breakeven point for my car changes about 2.5 years per $1 change in gasoline prices.

Interesting chart, thanks for sharing. We just bought a Honda Clarity Plug-in Hybrid. It's very similar to the Honda Accord, and the MSRP compares very closely. Regular Accord is $36,690, Hybrid is $35,600, and the Honda Clarity we bought is $36,600. Plus, we get a $7,500 tax CREDIT. Seems like an easy call for us.

The technology is really cool, too. The rating for EPA is 110 equivalent MPG. So far we have used only 2.1 gallons of gas, and traveled 531 miles, so 252 MPG, not considering the cost of electricity.

I love watching the dashboard display which shows when the car is regenerating electrical charge. I probably will cause some road rage as I slow down without using my brakes

One review I read on the car was that it was engineered for engineers. I liked that, too.

Gone are the days when you felt you needed to take a hit on buying a car to get a hybrid or plug-in.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 48Fire I love watching the dashboard display which shows when the car is regenerating electrical charge. I probably will cause some road rage as I slow down without using my brakes One review I read on the car was that it was engineered for engineers. I liked that, too.

I'm glad you like the car. I will take a look at it just to satisfy my own curiosity.

The more I learn about the tech in my 2012 car the more interesting the car becomes. They really have thought this through. The modern ones must be even better to get mileage near 50 mpg in a car the size of a Camry or Accord.

Oh, use your cars actual brakes when necessary. Ultimately no energy is saved if you get into an accident.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 48Fire .... The rating for EPA is 110 equivalent MPG. ...

While I think hybrids can make a lot of sense for people who put enough miles on their car, I absolutely hate this "equivalent MPG" rating.

It makes no sense, and that makes it misleading. You simply cannot use one number to represent a combination of two different things like that. So they should not do it.

What they should say is - you get X miles/kWh for the first Y miles, then you get X MPG after that.

That is two different numbers, combining them makes no sense.

-ERD50

[48Fire]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut I'm glad you like the car. I will take a look at it just to satisfy my own curiosity. Oh, use your cars actual brakes when necessary. Ultimately no energy is saved if you get into an accident.

Haha, that's true. I mostly use the Advanced Cruise Control, which brakes automatically with four, different distances to the car in front.