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Old 08-24-2015, 02:43 PM   #101
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Being away on holiday with spotty internet has caused me to miss much of the excitement. By mid-week, I will be back to assess the damages...
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Old 08-24-2015, 03:18 PM   #102
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The six figure drop we've had over the past couple of days in our equity accounts doesn't bother me....yet...but I am very concerned about my DW's stock options that have to be exercised within 90 days of her retirement this December. Her company stock is down 25%....ouch!
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Old 08-24-2015, 03:39 PM   #103
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Firecalc and a few other calculators say we would have survived 1929 just fine so why would I worry about today?

We're 100% index funds with an AA we can live with, so we're headed off to play pool at the clubhouse instead of fretting about a non-event.
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Old 08-24-2015, 03:40 PM   #104
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Watching the "bloodbath" is always a bit unnerving for most folks. The thing to remember right now is the following:


7. No one is starving in the U.S.


And my final point is that hedge funds and mutual funds like this push down to make their quarter when they start bidding up stocks again.

Sleep well, my friends....
Uhmmmm, can we get a fact checker here...lol.

You never really see folks holding up a cardboard sign that says "I'm starving and have limited time left" do ya?
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Old 08-24-2015, 04:06 PM   #105
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Firecalc and a few other calculators say we would have survived 1929 just fine so why would I worry about today?

We're 100% index funds with an AA we can live with, so we're headed off to play pool at the clubhouse instead of fretting about a non-event.
The main difference is valuations are much worse than in 1929 if the economy were to really hit the wall, which is not indicated yet. Although in 1929 everyone also said the economy was doing great and companies were strong. At market peaks this is what is usually the case.

1929 Stocks yielded on average 3.1 percent 50% higher than today
1929 10 year treasuries yielded 3.6 percent 80% higher than today

So on an equivalent drop you'd be selling on a 50/50 portfolio 0.65% of portfolio in excess of dividends in 1929, today you'd be selling 1.95% of your portfolio, on a 4% withdrawal the additional selling on lower stock prices could cause portfolio to fail.
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Old 08-24-2015, 04:23 PM   #106
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There are many who use the "I don't have a loss because I didn't sell" (not just you in this thread)... so not trying to pick just at you. I've always had problems with this statement. I see this as a time to tax loss harvest assuming you can use this in your tax planning. One example would be to sell a down S&P ETF and buy a LC and MC ETF in comparable proportions to the S&P. Not similar enough to trigger a wash sale. So, in that case, do you have a loss? You end up with a tax loss, you did sell something, but your investments in the market are effectively the same with very similar overall allocation. If you did re-balance your allocation may be shifted a bit in the process.
You misunderstood my meaning, or I yours.

This whole thing is tricky. One wants to avoid frames that stampede him, but at the same time, as I said, once the security price is below basis, it is a loss whether taken or not. However, often people may say "I lost 50,000 today", not meaning that if they sold they would have an actual loss, but only that the value of this portfolio is $50,000 less than at yesterday's close.

Ha
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Old 08-24-2015, 04:49 PM   #107
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... The most I have lost in a day is $80K. And that was back when I had less than today, but held high-beta stocks. And I was never 100% invested.
I was out of town for the weekend, and brought my laptop which has the diary file where I keep the daily value of my stash. It took me a bit of time to find the day where I lost the most money in dollar amount, not as percentage.

On 2011/08/08, the Dow dropped 635 points (only 4 years ago!). The S&P was down 6.7%. I lost $87K. And I was only 60% in equities.

But the above was not the highest drop of the market. I found that on 2008/09/29, the Dow dropped 778 points, the S&P lost 8.8%, and I lost only $61K.

As I am not an indexer, my portfolio daily movement can deviate quite a bit from the S&P. So, everyday I compare my stock movement against the indices, even though I do not trade daily.

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On that date of 2008/11/22, the OP of that thread talked about losing $1M in a week, not a day. Still a lot of money, but it also depends on whether you are holding a broadly diversified basket of stocks, or concentrated in a single stock that could and did go down to zero, the like of Bear Stearns.
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Old 08-24-2015, 04:59 PM   #108
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... once the security price is below basis, it is a loss whether taken or not...
The poor souls who held Bear Stearns, Global Crossing, Nortel, etc... (too numerous to count), had total and permanent loss. In the end, there was nothing left to sell.
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Old 08-24-2015, 05:21 PM   #109
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As stated, this weekend, looking through my diary file recalled the terrible time of late 2008 that people including myself have forgotten the details of. On the way down to the bottom in early March 2009, the market had extremely violent daily movements.

2008/09/29 - DJIA down 778, S&P down 8.8%

2008/10/07 - DJIA down 509, S&P down 5.8%

2008/10/09 - DJIA down 679, S&P down 7.6%

2008/10/13 - DJIA up 937, S&P up 11.6%

2008/10/15 - DJIA down 733, S&P down 9.0%

2008/10/20 - DJIA up 413, S&P up 4.7%

2008/10/22 - DJIA down 512, S&P down 6.5%

2008/10/28 - DJIA up 889, S&P up 10.8%

And it went on and on, but it was more down than up until the bottom was reached on 2009/03/09. At that point, the Dow reached bottom at 6547 vs. its high of 14164 on 2007/10/09. The S&P dropped from 1565 to 677 over the same two dates, down to 43% of its high. The S&P did not close at that high again until 2013/03/28. That's 1977 days, or 5 years 5 months.

Exciting time in 2008? Yes, very. The current rout is nothing yet, with just two day drops of 3.2% last Friday and 3.9% today. Keep your seat belts fastened.

PS. I do not see the global economy in a crisis now as it was in 2008. On the other hand, the turmoil so far is not all there is to it. There is more to come.

Keep your cash ready to jump in when you feel like it. Or sit back and enjoy your popcorn if you do not want to trade. Darn, this is exciting. Investors have been too complacent the last few years. Nothing like this to stir them up. Heh heh heh...
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Old 08-24-2015, 05:45 PM   #110
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The six figure drop we've had over the past couple of days in our equity accounts doesn't bother me....yet...but I am very concerned about my DW's stock options that have to be exercised within 90 days of her retirement this December. Her company stock is down 25%....ouch!
Been there and it is tough. Had options during the financial crises. All were under water at the worst. Everything worked out for me. Hope it does for you too.
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Old 08-24-2015, 05:50 PM   #111
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WATCH: Where Are They Now? The E-Trade Baby Loses Everything (Video) |
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:14 PM   #112
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Funny. Thanks for posting that.
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:37 PM   #113
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Old 08-24-2015, 10:03 PM   #114
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By the way, my numbers are all in for today. I "lost" more than $25K (can't tell you the exact number ).

The consolation is my stock AA dropped only 2.07%, compared to S&P at 3.19%. So, how do I complain?

PS. Total portfolio down 1.33%, which compares favorably with Wellington for the same 60% stock AA. Wellington drops 1.91%. Wellington usually beats me when the market goes down, meaning going down less, but not today.

PPS. The most I have lost in a day is $80K. And that was back when I had less than today, but held high-beta stocks. And I was never 100% invested.
Today is a much worse day for me, compared to the drop on Friday.

S&P is down -3.94%. My stocks are down -3.22%, and my equity MFs down -3.11%.

Total portfolio down -2.05%, vs. Wellington -2.50%.

In dollar amount, a heck of a lot more than $25K. In just 2 trading days, there goes 1 year living expenses. Well, I still have that class C, just in case.
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:09 PM   #115
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$183k. Ouch.


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Old 08-24-2015, 11:19 PM   #116
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$108K since last week. This is going to be a very unusual year.
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Old 08-24-2015, 11:29 PM   #117
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$196K since the top for me, after adjusting for withdrawal.

But my top was set last year and did not match with the recent S&P high at all.
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Old 08-25-2015, 12:03 AM   #118
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$196K since the top for me, after adjusting for withdrawal.

But my top was set last year and did not match with the recent S&P high at all.
Damn energy sector :-)
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:50 PM   #119
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Ok you guys made me look. $116k as of the close yesterday since my top in April of this year. It seems that with a 50/50 allocation and a value tilt on top of that things move slowly...
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:26 PM   #120
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What goes up more will come down harder.
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