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Old 09-10-2008, 09:07 AM   #21
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for the weathermanwannabe check out Surfline Hurricanetrak
cool site. though looks like they get their graphics from here CIMSS Tropical Cyclones

edit: forget surfline. that cimss site is way cool.
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Old 09-10-2008, 04:01 PM   #22
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Some of the bands from Ike passed by us this morning and I could not believe they strength of the storm surge with it being so far away . THe water came over our seawall and covered all the neighborhood docks.
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Old 09-10-2008, 04:28 PM   #23
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Hmmm... the latest forecast shows ol' Htown has a 60% or better chance of 39 mph winds by the weekend. 20% chance of hurricane-force winds.

Friday may be a day off from w**k!

On the other hand, I also did receive this forecast from a friend:
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Old 09-10-2008, 08:21 PM   #24
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...I could not believe the strength of the storm surge with it being so far away . The water came over our seawall and covered all the neighborhood docks.
that wasn't ike. it was that 19-square-mile ice sheet breaking loose in Canada › Japan Today: Japan News and Discussion


love the forecast ht harry. where are you (you mentioned within forecast) btw?
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Old 09-10-2008, 10:00 PM   #25
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i tried saving a series of projected cones throughout the day to see the change of movement but somehow when i go to copy/paste them, all the links only update to the latest projection.

regardless, as of this morning, the center of the cone of death was aiming for the coast south between corpus christi & port lavaca and now it has moved north, getting uncomfortably close to galveston/houston and that sharp turn shown earlier has smoothed out some.

i might just become a weatherman. i love this stuff (when it isn't pointed at me).
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Old 09-10-2008, 11:28 PM   #26
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love the forecast ht harry. where are you (you mentioned within forecast) btw?

Htown = Houston.

Since inquiring minds want to know, here is some narrative and a few maps that show some of the things we'll be watching for in the greater Houston area.

We live about 50 miles inland, not far from downtown in a neighborhood about 50 feet above sea level and a generous distance away from the nearest creeks (bayous in the local vernacular). No worries for my own safety at this location unless the storm gets to Cat 4 or Cat 5.

The 10pm forecast has Houston's odds up to 80% for TS winds and 25% for hurricane-force winds. Ominously, the forecast track has moved to the north.

The first map shows the 6 pm forecast track laid over a map that shows Texas population density.

The good news in that map is its forecast track misses Houston, the other Texas metropolitan areas and the largest coastal towns. If the storm takes a path near Matagorda Bay and then hooks right, the most populous area in the storm track is the Bryan-College Station area northwest of Houston.

The bad news is that the Houston-Galveston-Freeport area will likely be on the wet and windy side of the storm, where the higher tides occur.

One worst case scenario, now looking a bit more probable, is for the storm to hook to the north before making landfall, striking somewhere near Freeport as a category 3+. If conditions are exactly right, that would bring a big storm surge into Galveston Bay at high tide and the highest-intensity winds through Houston. This is more or less what happened in the early 1960's with Carla. A much weaker Alicia (Cat 1 or 2) took a similar path in the early 80's, but didn't have the power to create a significant storm surge.

The evacuation planning map shows the areas that can be directly affected by the storm surge or related coastal flooding. From the coast to about 100 miles inland, the generally topography is extremely flat. Typical grades are only a foot or two per mile.

The last map is one to watch. It's a close-up of the NHC's 6pm storm surge prediction map, showing the highest probability of high water is currently somewhere near the mouth of Galveston Bay. The brown represents a 50% chance of 5+ feet tides. The current map shows higher odds. That's cause for concern, as evidenced by evacuations beginning earlier today in the Freeport area and points farther to the south along the coast. Hurricane IKE Storm Surge Probabilities

For Houston proper, winds over 40 mph will start to bring down trees and power lines. Our wet climate along the coast makes us a very green city. I was here for Alicia and I remember entire neighborhood parks coverted to dumping grounds for downed trees. Power outages were pretty widespread.

Which brings me the the real worst-case scenario for the urbanized area - flooding along the bayous made worse by the high tides where the creeks and bayous empty into the bay.

The most wide-spread flooding in a generation occurred in 2001, with TS Allison. That storm stalled over us and dumped an unbelievable amount of water. An inch in an hour is a pretty heavy rain. We had areas that saw a continuous downpour of two to three inches an hour for over half a day. See the effects in a flash movie posted at a link at the lower right corner of this site: Tropical Storm Allison Recovery Project - TSARP

We're watching...closely. When the local emergency management folks make announcements in the morning, I suspect they will order much wider evacuations. By the end of the day tomorrow, I'm fairly certain will be recommending area-wide school and business closures for Friday.

Naturally, the TV weathermen are already breaking out their arsenal of alarming cliches. But folks will start to take real action only when they hear that the high school football games are called off.
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the pictures..
Old 09-10-2008, 11:32 PM   #27
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the pictures..

Here's the maps:
Attached Images
File Type: jpg ike - population.JPG (94.7 KB, 8 views)
File Type: jpg Ike evacuation.JPG (59.3 KB, 5 views)
File Type: jpg Ike surge.JPG (47.6 KB, 4 views)
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Old 09-11-2008, 06:52 AM   #28
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From this morning's Chronicle:

"On the high school front, three dozen football games scheduled Friday have been moved today, and another two dozen, mostly non-district games involving travel outside Harris County or Greater Houston, have been canceled."

Having clear evidence that the storm may in fact be coming, Joe Sixpack will now start making preparations.
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Old 09-11-2008, 07:29 AM   #29
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From this morning's Chronicle:

"On the high school front, three dozen football games scheduled Friday have been moved today, and another two dozen, mostly non-district games involving travel outside Harris County or Greater Houston, have been canceled."

Having clear evidence that the storm may in fact be coming, Joe Sixpack will now start making preparations.
Stay safe, Harry! I hope that Houston isn't hit too hard.

As a former "band mom" at A&M Consolidated in College Station, I can attest to the fact that Texans take their high school football seriously. The cancellation and rescheduling of football games in the Houston area does not bode well for Houston.
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Old 09-11-2008, 08:47 AM   #30
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Htown = Houston.
oh, yikes. good luck harry to you and the rest of houston.

houston, we have a problem.
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Old 09-11-2008, 10:15 AM   #31
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NOAA Graphical Forecast for Southern Plains

This is a NOAA map. While this one shows the Texas coast, They have the entire US so those in other areas might find it useful for other purposes. I like it because it allows me to see what the forecast is for my area. Rain, Snow, Wind, Gust, Temp. Fog, You can use the other maps for where the storm is going to go, but it allows me to see that we may get 70 mph gust, 62 Knot gust around Sat. 5:30.
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Old 09-11-2008, 12:51 PM   #32
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I keep watching Ike and hope all you texans stay safe . I'm also surprized there have no warnings to New Orleans . If Ike veers at all won't they have a tremendous storm surge ?
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Old 09-11-2008, 01:14 PM   #33
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the cone of death has hardly moved in a day with the line only veering from corpus christi to galveston. it's moving at a decent clip and from tomorrow through monday it picks up lots of foward motion. the computer models are all pretty tightly confirming each other. so they must feel confident in the projected course.



meanwhile, another low has just formed north of the usvi. i'm gonna go chuck a bunch of icecubes into the gulfstream and see if i can't weaken it a tad.
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Old 09-11-2008, 01:33 PM   #34
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I keep watching Ike and hope all you texans stay safe . I'm also surprized there have no warnings to New Orleans . If Ike veers at all won't they have a tremendous storm surge ?
We have Tropical Storm warnings. No big deal. There are areas that almost always flood, such as coastal parts of the suburb of Slidell and Venetian Isles, and these are currently experiencing a little flooding due to minor storm surge.

Here are the probabilities of >5 ft storm surge in New Orleans. Click on this link, and then click on "Central Gulf of Mexico".

Hurricane IKE Storm Surge Probabilities

Looks like about a 10-40% chance of storm surge over 5 feet in various parts of New Orleans. Storm surge of 5 feet is not so bad.

The band that went through here earlier in the day, with all the heavy rain and darkness, is gone. Right now we have no rain, puffy grey/white cumulus clouds, and even partly blue skies.
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Old 09-11-2008, 03:25 PM   #35
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Here's another tracking link: Track Hurricane Ike / Stormpulse / Hurricane tracking, mapping
Point on any city and it will give it's distance from the eye of the storm.
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Old 09-11-2008, 03:26 PM   #36
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I forgot to mention that we have a state of emergency in my Parish (but the problems won't be here so much as down in Grande Isle), and some very low lying areas south of New Orleans have been evacuated. Here's an article talking about the preparations, and it shows a photo of some water in Venetian Isles which I mentioned in my last post.

Hurricane Ike proving difficult for forecasters to peg - Hurricane Ike News and Storm Tracking - NOLA.com

TEXAS is really where we need to focus our worry right now, though. We don't know exactly how hard this storm is going to hit Houston. I am hoping for the best for Texas and all of our ER-Forum Texans (and others) in Ike's path.
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Friday morning report
Old 09-12-2008, 08:36 AM   #37
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Friday morning report

We went to bed last night hoping for a weakening or a detour of Ike. No such luck.

This thing's big, with a wind field and storm surge much wider that a typical hurricane. The graphics in first few minutes of this video show the predicted wind effects as clearly as any I've seen: Top Stories Video On Demand | KHOU.com | News for Houston, Texas

Water's now splashing up to near the top of the 15-ft tall seawall in Galveston...at low tide. Normally there's a 100-200 feet wide beach at its base. It's pretty clear there will be high water on the coast and in the bay unlike any we've seen since Carla in 1961.

On the positive side, evacuations from all of the zones on the map I posted yesterday are complete or nearly complete. The traffic jams of Rita have not been repeated, in large part because the mayor and other local officials are doing a great job of giving balanced, calm warning messages. The typical hyperbole of the news media has even been toned down a bit as a result.

It's gonna be bad, maybe extraordinarily bad. But the Houston area is as ready as it can be.

Where we are (like most Houstonians) we'll need to hide from the wind, not run from the water.

Heading out now to board up my windows, before the wind start kicking up this afternoon.
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Old 09-12-2008, 09:58 AM   #38
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Take care, Harry.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:06 AM   #39
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Take care, Harry.
Ditto.

We're supposed to get about four inches of rain tomorrow with wind gusts up to 50 mph in Dallas. But, hey, that's a regular storm for us (minus the hail).

Gotta mow my yard now.
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Old 09-12-2008, 10:55 AM   #40
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There is a report on the TV now about the Coast Guard having to rescue folks off their roof tops. This storm did not sneak up on anybody in this area. The TV stations have been broadcasting at least 48 hours now, nothing but hurricane coverage. I hope the Coast Guard presents them with a bill! Looks like they are saying that Galveston will be covered with water before this is over.

We are about 100 to 200 miles from the coast. We expect 100 mph wind gust.
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