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Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 03:51 PM   #1
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Jimmy Roger's latest comments

I try not to listen to any predictions good or bad but I think Jim Rogers is an interesting guy. Read below:

Oil will hit $150 within the next decade, according to Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with billionaire financier George Soros. Rogers told the Hedge Funds World Global Opportunities 2005 conference that he doesn't see a downturn in oil prices coming anytime soon.

"The question on oil will be how high the price goes and stays, because there may be vast amounts of oil in the world, but no one has discovered a great oilfield in over 35 years," said Rogers.

"The Alaskan and Mexican fields are in decline, and while the North Sea has made the UK one of the great oil exporters in the last 20 years, within the decade the UK will be a net importer.

"In the 1960s we discovered North America, Mexico and the North Sea, and the world knew the oil would come to market. But the price of oil went up 10 times, because it could not get to market quickly enough.

"If you think the price of oil is going to $32 and staying there, let me know where the oil is coming from. I expect the price will be $100-$150 within the decade, and the bull run in commodities will come to an end when it reaches $110."

In addition, Rogers predicts a bleak future for Saudi Arabia -- one of the world's largest oil producers:

"The country is basically run by three people who are over 80 years of age, and about 70% of the Saudi people are under 21. There is huge tension and unrest under the surface, and there are huge numbers of foreigners such as Indians, Bangladeshis and Pakistanis doing all the work and running the businesses. So either there will be chaos in Saudi Arabia -- and that's likely, which means the price of oil will stay high -- or the royal family will pay everyone off."

Rogers insisted that a grave decline in revenue streams -- combined with an inordinate number of young people in the population -- was sure to bring imbalance to America's future.

"People have said all commodity bull runs end with a war. If that's true, by the end of the next decade there will be a lot more turmoil in the world," he said. "When you have a country on the rise, it always clashes with the dominant power in the world. At the moment that power is the U.S. and the country on the rise is China."

Rogers stressed that alternative energy sources "cannot happen fast enough."


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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 03:58 PM   #2
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

Everyone can predict what they want. No one really knows. I do have a certain amount of respect for Jim Rogers though. I think he is a savvy guy.

JG
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 04:17 PM   #3
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

Could be

I read my first article about the coming oil shortages and the 'hydrogen economy' around 1960.

This time it's different - the falling dollar will run up the price(to us). Read that in the 1970's.
.
Commodities did have a run - they just didn't make 'me' rich.

Oil was a significantly higher % of the S&P back then.

This time it's different - maybe.
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 04:48 PM   #4
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

Lots of people in China. If they don't tax gasoline as much as they do in Europe and Japan, Chinese motorists will use a lot of it. Kind of like gas being half the price in the USA compared to Europe, leading to a lot of SUVs. Oil would have to double in price, just to get USA gas prices up to European levels, and Europeans haven't stopped driving at that price. Oil can go up quite a lot before serious conservation efforts become popular. Adjusted for inflation, oil had to go much higher than it is today back in the 70s before people started to trim back.
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 07:21 PM   #5
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

I appreciate posts like this one of Wildcat's that bring something to the board. Any body can say maybe, maybe not--but I think we are all savvy enough to decide for ourselves.

IMO, agnosticism is not a good response to confusing yet important situations.

I used to read a lot of the old commodity speculators. To a man they said, "You have to have an opinion about where prices are going. The rest is just spinning your wheels." And washing plastic bags I guess.

Mikey
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 04-29-2005, 07:32 PM   #6
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

The sky is falling, the sky is falling ..... :

Cheers,

Charlie
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 05-06-2005, 04:27 PM   #7
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

Not if you invest in commodities Charlie.
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments
Old 05-06-2005, 04:43 PM   #8
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Re: Jimmy Roger's latest comments

Yeah but the europeans drive roller skates around, not hummers. So the price did have some effect.

Owning energy's pretty important though, I have some in wellesley/wellington and some vanguard energy. Commodities are a good idea too, although I hate the recent price run-up.

As far as predictions go...
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