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Old 01-14-2018, 07:02 PM   #41
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I wonder if it was an "intentional accident" to test response. Useful info seems to be coming from the event, albeit at the expense of some panic.
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:32 PM   #42
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All the people showing such sympathy for the guy who made this mistake, will you show as much for poor old Marcus Williams?
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Old 01-14-2018, 09:54 PM   #43
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I basically ignored it, partly because I was into the UM-MSU basketball game (great Michigan victory) partly because wtf can you do about it. Checked other stations, nobody reporting it, figured it was another example of incompetent government bureaucracy.

My 16 year old daughter was on Molokai for basketball. They prematurely ended the JV game and herded the kids into a storage room. She was mostly annoyed by it all. Not sure if there was any panic in the group.
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Old 01-14-2018, 10:03 PM   #44
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I do not even know why Hawaii even issues a warning for a ballistic missile.

If it's nuclear, you cannot hide enough in 15 minutes. It would wipe out many items and kill many people. The ones that survived, would likely die soon due to starvation or radioactivity.
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Old 01-14-2018, 10:22 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by GrayHare View Post
I wonder if it was an "intentional accident" to test response. Useful info seems to be coming from the event, albeit at the expense of some panic.
On another forum, there was a discussion where one guy was promoting routine prolonged power-outage drills across the country. He claimed that an actual power-outage was the only real way to find the weak links in the system (this in response to the recent hurricanes).

I think he's right, though the general opinion seemed to be it would create more problems than it solved. Maybe, probably?

And it looks like this accident (or 'exercise'?) did point out the problems with their emergency communication system. So maybe some good will come out of it, I hope not too many people got hurt in the mayhem.

I think I would have been terrified if I experienced it. Geez, that text was definitive and specific, and it said "THIS IS NOT A DRILL". I would have been pretty freaked out.

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I do not even know why Hawaii even issues a warning for a ballistic missile.

If it's nuclear, you cannot hide enough in 15 minutes. It would wipe out many items and kill many people. The ones that survived, would likely die soon due to starvation or radioactivity.
I'm not sure how North Korea's capability compares to what was dropped on Nagasaki, but in that case, it was not an all or nothing situation:


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Sumiteru Taniguchi, 88, Who Survived Nagasaki to Become Activist, Dies

On the day of the bombing, Mr. Taniguchi, then 16, was delivering mail on his bicycle in the northern corner of the city, just over a mile from ground zero.

When the bomb detonated overhead, the force of the explosion tossed him into the air, and the heat it radiated melted his cotton shirt and seared the skin off his back and one arm.

Three months later, he was taken to a navy hospital, where he lay on his stomach for nearly two years ...
And yet, he lived from age 16 to age 88, with no protection from the blast.

-ERD50
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Old 01-15-2018, 12:11 AM   #46
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I do not even know why Hawaii even issues a warning for a ballistic missile.

If it's nuclear, you cannot hide enough in 15 minutes. It would wipe out many items and kill many people. The ones that survived, would likely die soon due to starvation or radioactivity.
As someone who grew up with the cold war, I don't think I could just sit on the beach (book reference) waiting to die.

Hi spans about 350 miles , so unless all the islands were each hit with a missile, there would easily be a good chance to survive if the island was not hit.

Besides many islands have mountains, which would shield areas from the blast, and depending upon the wind direction, all the radiation could blow away from some people's location.
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Old 01-15-2018, 03:03 AM   #47
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I do not even know why Hawaii even issues a warning for a ballistic missile.

If it's nuclear, you cannot hide enough in 15 minutes. It would wipe out many items and kill many people. The ones that survived, would likely die soon due to starvation or radioactivity.
I suppose it would depend upon the "purpose" of a nuclear attack. A "tactical" nuke, used to disable the military would likely leave a good portion of the population alive - maybe even unharmed, assuming they could shelter from the bulk of the fallout (trade winds would blow most away in hours, I'm guessing.) If a thermonuke were used (say 5 megaton) it's likely there would be 80+% death and nearly 100% casualty on a 600 square mile island. The purpose of such an attack would be terror rather than tactical in my opinion.

I'm too ignorant of the subject to know whether survivors of a tactical attack could survive in such an isolated place as HI. In any case, my immediate fear at the time was being a survivor, dependent on help from the mainland (2500 miles away). Realistically, HI would be a secondary concern as the mainland reacted (defensively and in retaliation.) So, it could be a very long time without adequate food, medical, even water, certainly sanitation, etc.) Yeah, I think ground zero sounds a lot better but YMMV.
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Old 01-15-2018, 05:56 AM   #48
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Interesting website you can use to compute the effects of a nuclear strike. Choose a location, choose warhead variables, choose damage rings and fallout lobes to display.

I put one over Pearl City. Honolulu was largely spared.
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Old 01-15-2018, 09:25 AM   #49
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All the people showing such sympathy for the guy who made this mistake, will you show as much for poor old Marcus Williams?
Of course! (But then, I don't live in New Orleans)
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Old 01-15-2018, 03:29 PM   #50
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Just another day in paradise - until 8:08am

Seeking shelter immediately is rational & makes sense.

Agree that a single warhead is a very tragic event but it is realistic to plan on what to do post event for food and water because the odds are high you will survive.

Nuclear warheads are survivable if outside the immediate, 3 mile radius. Especially because of the limited number of DRNK warheads, it is certainly not the end of the world.

DRNK is estimated to have 500 kiloton fission warheads. That size creates a blast wave that destroys buildings out to 3 miles. That takes approximately 0.5 psi over ambient 14.7psi at MSL. Thermal energy release is strong enough to create fires 5-6 miles.
If not immediately downwind, no fallout impact.

If you see a flash and have time to get under a table do it. Duck and cover protects you from flying debris generated by the shock wave.
If you are too close to react, it doesn't matter.
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