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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:21 PM   #41
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
It's funny how Texas has their act together and LA/NO didn't. Wonder why?
I'm not sure, but I think it has to do with the following.

10. Texas has a "Smarter brand of Redneck"(tm)
9. Warnings in SE Louisiana not issued in Cajun
8. Fewer electronic stores to wait around for in Galveston.
7. Ignoring warnings to evacuate won't work - rescuers all in New Orleans.
6. Astrodome already booked.
5. Walker, Texas Ranger!
4. No more Michael Brown.
3. No Ray Nagin in Galveston.
2. No Kathleen Blanco in Texas.
...
1. Fool me once, shame on shame on you. Fool me you can't get fooled again!

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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:30 PM   #42
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

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Walker, Texas Ranger!
I could just see him drop kicking the looters.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:32 PM   #43
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Rita is now a Category 5.

Telly, I think you've said you live somewhere near the Texas coast.* Are you packing up and heading for higher ground?

Bye-bye refineries...maybe. Let's hope we are not freezing in the dary this winter.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:41 PM   #44
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

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Originally Posted by brewer12345
Bye-bye refineries...maybe. Let's hope we are not freezing in the dary this winter.
Did anybody catch that interview with Richard Branson (Virgin line of businesses)? He said Virgin is planning on spending $2 bln on building refinery(ies). They are also planning on starting an oil exploration and extraction company. I think he sees a market with huge profits and demand potentially exceeding supply. People like him will be the end to Big Oil unless Big Oil makes some changes (starts investing in new refining capacity, sucking more oil out of the ground).
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:47 PM   #45
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Did anybody catch that interview with Richard Branson (Virgin line of businesses)?* He said Virgin is planning on spending $2 bln on building refinery(ies).* They are also planning on starting an oil exploration and extraction company.* I think he sees a market with huge profits and demand potentially exceeding supply.* People like him will be the end to Big Oil unless Big Oil makes some changes (starts investing in new refining capacity, sucking more oil out of the ground).
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

Are you kidding? Have you actually looked at what the oil companies are doing? The biggest guys simply can't find enough spots to drill. The mid-sized and smaller guys are drilling and producing with every penny they can get. Its not for lack of trying.

Its great that Branson wants to build a refinery, but where is he planning to do that? The Gulf? Off the coast of Florida? Off some expensive east coast real estate? I didn't think so.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:54 PM   #46
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

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Rita is now a Category 5.
Its still showing Cat 4 at NOAA's site. 140mph sustained. 155+ is cat 5.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 03:58 PM   #47
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by azanon
Its still showing Cat 4 at NOAA's site. 140mph sustained. 155+ is cat 5.
CNN had NOAA forecaster live about 30 minutes ago. Rita's winds reported at a sustained 165 MPH.



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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 04:21 PM   #48
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Telly, I think you've said you live somewhere near the Texas coast.* Are you packing up and heading for higher ground?
Thanks for thinking about us* * We are well inland, may get tropical storm force winds and a lot of rain.* Way too early to tell.* We have kids that are closer, but they are far enough* inland not to get the worst of it, far far out of direct Gulf water, but may get high winds and torrential rains..

Here in TX we have the cable channel TXCN.* It is the Texas News Channel, owned and operated by the Belo empire.* They have all sorts of coverage and news conferences, Mayor of Houston, EMG Mgmnt. people from various counties, the Governor, etc.* Also Neil Frank, probably the best hurricane forecast guy ever.* He's at a Houston TV station.

For Hurricane Katrine, TXCN pre-empted most of their usual TX programming, and carried WLW-TV (normally in N.O., but relo'd to Baton Rouge).* So WLW via TXCN was the best source of REAL news about the Katrine situation.* They had people who knew and lived in the area their doing the reporting.* Sometimes just by phone.

Back to Rita, Neil was just showing the effect of the Texas high (usually here in summer) on Rita's path.* The TX high is expected to start moving East soon, if/when it does, then Rita can turn in a Northerly vector, from her present Westerly track.* Nei says it's too early to solidly predict where landfall will be.

One more thing about evacuation* - Disabled people or those unable to get to a bus pickup point can call a phone number depending on what City/town they are in to get a scheduled pickup.* Already more than 2000 people have been evac't from Galveston by bus.

Here is a link to tracking and effect maps on NOAA, was just updated @ 4PM:

http://www.stormtracker.noaa.gov/stormtracker-rita.htm
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 05:19 PM   #49
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!!

Are you kidding? Have you actually looked at what the oil companies are doing? The biggest guys simply can't find enough spots to drill. The mid-sized and smaller guys are drilling and producing with every penny they can get. Its not for lack of trying.

Its great that Branson wants to build a refinery, but where is he planning to do that? The Gulf? Off the coast of Florida? Off some expensive east coast real estate? I didn't think so.
Brewer,

I heard Big Oil is making decisions based on oil prices in the $25-30/barrel range, not the current price. Therefore, it doesn't make sense (based on their assumptions) for Big Oil to search for more oil or extract more oil.

As to Branson's idea for locating his refinery, he talked about Africa or Europe. Even Newfoundland. Newfoundland refined fuels could fairly easily be transported via pipeline to the US. Dunno the shipping method du jour for Africa-US oil or Euro-US oil - tanker?

If prices for oil and refined oil products stay at current levels, I think we'll see some movement from Big Oil, or there will be new market entrants. Not tomorrow, but eventually. It takes people like Branson who want to take a risk. He also mentioned how the new oil business would hedge some fuel pricing risks from his airline section. I'm sort of cynical about this - couldn't he hedge through the financial commodities/futures markets more easily? I think he's a greedy bastard that wants to profit from oil/refined oil products (good for consumers!!!).

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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 06:35 PM   #50
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
It's funny how Texas has their act together and LA/NO didn't.* Wonder why?
I have a theory.

JG
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 07:38 PM   #51
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

I grudgingly admit I moved Texas up a notch on the ol' respect-o-meter recently.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-21-2005, 07:47 PM   #52
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
I grudgingly admit I moved Texas up a notch on the ol' respect-o-meter recently.
While we Texans sincerely appreciate your grudginess, I'm going to reserve judgement until this monster blows over.

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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 07:25 AM   #53
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

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Originally Posted by justin
Brewer,

I heard Big Oil is making decisions based on oil prices in the $25-30/barrel range, not the current price.* Therefore, it doesn't make sense (based on their assumptions) for Big Oil to search for more oil or extract more oil.*

As to Branson's idea for locating his refinery, he talked about Africa or Europe.* Even Newfoundland.* Newfoundland refined fuels could fairly easily be transported via pipeline to the US.* Dunno the shipping method du jour for Africa-US oil or Euro-US oil - tanker?*

If prices for oil and refined oil products stay at current levels, I think we'll see some movement from Big Oil, or there will be new market entrants.* Not tomorrow, but eventually.* It takes people like Branson who want to take a risk.* He also mentioned how the new oil business would hedge some fuel pricing risks from his airline section.* I'm sort of cynical about this - couldn't he hedge through the financial commodities/futures markets more easily?* I think he's a greedy bastard that wants to profit from oil/refined oil products (good for consumers!!!).*

I repeat: companies like Exxon are not expanding drilling because they can't. There aren't enough drilling rigs, trained personnel, drilling territories, etc. The mid-sized and smaller guys are drilling every square inch they can get to.

As for refinery locations, Newfoundland might conceivably work, although I don't know how tough the infrastructure build would be. Europe is a pipe dream. You gonna put it on the French Riviera/ Don't think so. Where in Africa would you like to put a refinery that costs many billions to build? Nigeria? Cote d'Ivoire? South Africa? Then where are you going to get the tankers to move the product? Every single-hulled tanker has to be scrapped between 2010 and 2015, so the shipyards are already booked up for years to come.

There is no easy or cheap solution to the problem. There may not even be a feasible solution.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 08:38 AM   #54
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

This mornings news conference had lots of info.* And what a contrast between the Mayor of Houston and the Mayor of N.O.!

I should point out that everything that is going on is the result of city/towns, counties and TX state.* This is not a federal effort, it would be scary to have people who don't know the area, people & resources to arbitrarily implement some "plan".

TXDOT, for the first time ever, is reversing (counterflowing) an interstate.* Approx. 110 miles of I-45.* That is one hell of an undertaking.* They are having a contractor working further up I45 come down and build a quick median cross over between exits.* TXDOT is leading the effort to place vehicles and people to man the soon to be wrong-way entrance ramps for all those miles, and handle people who need to get off along the way.* Think about it - at least 110 miles!* After they get this stable, they are going to do it on HWY 290, then after that, attempt to do it on I-10.* They have doubts that they have enough people and equipment to do it on I-10.* They are talking about 10,000 people and equipment to do this.* Never before has something of this magnitude been done.

Galveston and much of Brazoria county is empty.* The withdrawal is staged, those closest go first.* The logistics are tough.* How to get gas tankers to resupply gas stations when they can't get there due to the traffic lines, and then counterflowed interstates to boot.

They are doing a good job stressing the fact that if you see long lines on TV, that doesn't mean you should wait till later to go!

Just saw on TV that a Clear Lake couple said it took 12 hours overnight from their house to Dallas.* Then they finally found a hotel room.* Probably the last one!* City of Dallas does not have any shelters open, they are full up with Katrine evacuees.

The LA evac and resettlement was one thing, they didn't have 300,000 people from another state in their midst, Texas does!

Looks like Rita has started to turn* a bit, Beaumont and Port Arthur are now in the storm surge zone now too.* When we say Beaumont and Port Arthur, think gasoline and chemicals.* 25% of the US refining capacity is in the Houston through BM PT-A area.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 04:11 PM   #55
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

TXDOT has counterflowed I-45 for 125 miles N-NW out of Houston towards Dallas.* And counterflowed I-10 for 150 MILES west from Houston towards San Antonio.*
They have left HWY 290 alone, to use it as a two-way so access to Houston is maintained.

Many people not in the MANDATORY Evac. areas have decided to leave too (always a personal choice, can't blame them!) which has added many more vehicles on the routes.

As Rita appears to have moved tracking more East, more evac's have become mandatory up the coast.*

One of the main problems appearing is gasoline.* No area is prepared for everyone to go fill their tank all at once.* And they need a full tank to make it out of the area.* People using smaller roads have moved up N NE of Houston, it has taken them many hours, and they are driving through small towns gobbling up all the gas that the locals in that area now need themselves to evacuate.

TXDOT has gotten donations from Dallas area fuel consortiums, from San Antonio area too so they can re-fuel some stations along the main evac routes.* They say fuel acquisition is really tight.* That the Katrina mess has made it all worse to boot.

There just isn't the local storage and supply to suddenly fuel millions of cars and trucks in a narrow time window.

The Mayor of Houston, Bill White, has contacted the Feds about aerial lift of fuel to get fuel to empty cars along the routes.* He said no word back from the Feds on that yet.* TXDOT is doing what they can with remaining trucks and personnel, to give stranded people a gallon or two to get them along/off the evac roads.* They say that many people have pitched in helping each other, that the routes are not impeded by stalled cars.* The next conference is at 7 PM, sounds like Houston/counties/TXDOT/State are trying to figure out more fuel relief on their own.* No time to wait.

The coordination and information from all levels of TX agencies looks super.

We heard from one of our kids this morning... evacuees all over, going through, etc.* Gas all gone.* Walmart out of most edibles.* Didn't ask if any jars of Pickled Pigs Feet were left* :P* That would be reeeaal desperate!
These towns are already loaded with Katrina evacuees from LA.*
Cell phones are useless, systems overloaded with all the people on.* Text messages seem to get through, though it may take an hour.* One advantage of low bit-rate packet communication, but not like you can try to locate a hotel room in Oklahoma via text!
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 04:13 PM   #56
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Hmmm, I am feeling better about my decision to keep a few gallons of gas tucked away in the shed "just in case".
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 06:27 PM   #57
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Telly
TXDOT has counterflowed I-45 for 125 miles N-NW out of Houston towards Dallas.* And counterflowed I-10 for 150 MILES west from Houston towards San Antonio.*
They have left HWY 290 alone, to use it as a two-way so access to Houston is maintained.

Many people not in the MANDATORY Evac. areas have decided to leave too (always a personal choice, can't blame them!) which has added many more vehicles on the routes.

As Rita appears to have moved tracking more East, more evac's have become mandatory up the coast.*

One of the main problems appearing is gasoline.* No area is prepared for everyone to go fill their tank all at once.* And they need a full tank to make it out of the area.* People using smaller roads have moved up N NE of Houston, it has taken them many hours, and they are driving through small towns gobbling up all the gas that the locals in that area now need themselves to evacuate.

TXDOT has gotten donations from Dallas area fuel consortiums, from San Antonio area too so they can re-fuel some stations along the main evac routes.* They say fuel acquisition is really tight.* That the Katrina mess has made it all worse to boot.

There just isn't the local storage and supply to suddenly fuel millions of cars and trucks in a narrow time window.

The Mayor of Houston, Bill White, has contacted the Feds about aerial lift of fuel to get fuel to empty cars along the routes.* He said no word back from the Feds on that yet.* TXDOT is doing what they can with remaining trucks and personnel, to give stranded people a gallon or two to get them along/off the evac roads.* They say that many people have pitched in helping each other, that the routes are not impeded by stalled cars.* The next conference is at 7 PM, sounds like Houston/counties/TXDOT/State are trying to figure out more fuel relief on their own.* No time to wait.

The coordination and information from all levels of TX agencies looks super.

We heard from one of our kids this morning... evacuees all over, going through, etc.* Gas all gone.* Walmart out of most edibles.* Didn't ask if any jars of Pickled Pigs Feet were left* :P* That would be reeeaal desperate!
These towns are already loaded with Katrina evacuees from LA.*
Cell phones are useless, systems overloaded with all the people on.* Text messages seem to get through, though it may take an hour.* One advantage of low bit-rate packet communication, but not like you can try to locate a hotel room in Oklahoma via text!
I would have stayed put for 2 reasons:

1. I think there is a good chance it will not be nearly as bad as some think
(overkill based on Katrina/NO?)

2. I hate to have anyone telling me what to do.

JG
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 08:42 PM   #58
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

Filled up the gas tanks on both vehicles. Also bought 12.5 gallons extra, and put it in cans. Wanted more, but could not find any five-gallon cans. Everybody doing the same thing, I expect. If the refineries are shut down for a week or so, not only will be paying more, we could be OUT of gas. So, don't wanna be unprepared like the New Orleanians. Rather have some and not need it, than vice versa. I can drive 400+ miles on a full tank with the Cambry and 380# miles on full tank with the F-150. That and the extra ought to hold us until the refineries are back up and running.

I also have in-laws who live in Houston. They're in Austin, now. Took about 12 hours to make the drive.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 10:33 PM   #59
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

My cousin's family is in Houston and they're safe in Fort Worth after a 10-hour drive last night. That's pretty fast compared to today's traffic I hear. Many friends of their family turned back and gave up on the evacuation, but since they were evacuating they didn't prepare to weather the storm, either, so my Houston family is worried.

Here in Indianapolis I filled the tank, bought a 5 gallon can & filled it and bought & installed a locking gas cap. I'm hoping that'll last me a week and a half; if gas problems get real severe I can probably stretch it to 3 or 4 weeks by only driving when and where necessary.

I'm flying to visit my D/FW family this weekend, and apparently I'll get a taste of Rita myself. At the worst point there were 75mph sustained winds forecast for Fort Worth, but that's changed since the storm weakened and veered right.

The flight there looks pretty wide open; I guess most people don't want to head that way.
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)
Old 09-22-2005, 11:58 PM   #60
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Re: Katrina II (aka Rita)

More news:

The biggest evacuation in US History continues. Now estimated at about 2 million people.

All of the refineries on the Houston ship channel have been shut down, the first time ever that this has been done. A couple days ago they said the shut-down would be a hot-idle state, so after the big event, if an inspection looked OK, they would be coming up in a few days. In comparison, a cold shut-down would take weeks to restart.

The Texas National Guard, escorted by DPS (the TX state police) will be making the rounds across hundreds of miles of the evac routes to gas-up cars that ran out of gas with 5 gallons.* And they are working on refueling select gas stations along the route.

TX Air National guard evacuating the "they'll die if the're moved" cases from hospitals.* Heard the Mississippi ANG is helping too. Thanks Mississippians!

The media is starting to get into it now. More and more "experts" with no experience in anything, and no common sense are popping up.* Example: One idiot blamed the state of Texas for the lack of gasoline.*
Quote:* "I can't think of anything more horrendous than being in bumper to bumper traffic on a 98 degree day and running out of gas"* Huh? He must have lived a very sheltered life under mommys apron!* He needs to get out more.

Another one was wailing about the inadequate evacuation routes.* Yeah, I heard that the "inflate an interstate" kits had holes in them, and they had to be returned to Walmart...

Considering it's 2 million people, it's never been done before, the roads are the roads, and there are still 24 hours to go. I'd say its going well.

I didn't fill any cans up, didn't think of it.* Though I did fill a can up earlier in the week for the tractor, and haven't used it yet, so I guess that's my can.* From the sound of it, we may get lots to little of rain, too early to tell.* But sounds like the chances of high winds my way have dropped quite a bit.* I consider "high" as over 50 MPH.
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