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Kentucky Derby Analysis
Old 05-02-2015, 12:59 AM   #1
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Kentucky Derby Analysis

OK, so I am a bit of a gambler, and it seems a small investment in the Kentucky Derby can help make an interesting retirement. Here is my outlook for tomorrows race:

Great speed horses in the presence of other great horses with speed cannot be slowed down, I expect this will be a very fast pace for this Kentucky Derby. Expect Dortmund, Carpe Diem and Materiality to break quickly and go out for the lead with American Pharaoh lurking closely right behind.

Coming up early Firing Line will begin to make a move on the leaders around the 3/8 point of the race and this will cause American Pharaoh to start to run, despite the fact Bob Baffert would prefer he hold back until the last 1/4.

By the 3/4 mile mark you'll have 5 horses bunched in front running with Upstart lurking about 5 lengths behind. At this point International Star and Frosted will begin to move up along the rail about 15-20 lengths back.

By the one mile mark American Pharaoh and Dortmund will be continuing in a duel and heading for home with the other speed horses fading, Upstart will be within a couple of lengths and International Star and Frosted will be moving into contention for the stretch run.

Running side by side American Pharaoh will suddenly pull up lame and Dortmund has an 1/8 of a mile to go. Frosted begins closing rapidly and gets second but amazingly Dortmund holds on with Upstart 3rd and International Star fourth.

Your program numbers 8-15-19-12
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Old 05-02-2015, 07:16 AM   #2
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Right now I'm waffling between American Pharoah (18) and Carpe Diem (2)
Our local track has been running a Road to Kentucky contest and I'm in second place, 6 points behind the leader. $1,500 1st place and $1,000 2nd place.
The Derby is triple points so it will probably be the make or break race of the 13 races today.
I'm hoping your wrong about AP pulling up lame.
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Old 05-02-2015, 11:19 AM   #3
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I like listening to Eddie Olczyk's breakdown. He's picking Dortmund, but said a case can be made for many horses.

Quote:
NBC’s Eddie Olczyk joined the show to break down the Stanley Cup playoffs and weigh in on the Kentucky Derby. Olczyk broke down the field for Saturday’s race and said there’s a reason American Pharoah is everyone’s favorite. He also likes Dortmund, the second favorite. “It’s a wide open race,” Olczyk said. He likes Danzig Moon and Firing Line as darkhorses. Olczyk also analyzed the Rangers-Capitals series and the big picture of the NHL playoffs.
Eddie Olczyk shares his Kentucky Derby sleepers - Dan Patrick ShowDan Patrick Show

If I understand correctly, he says if you bet on a couple of favorites, then toss in a long shot, you have a chance of making some good money and not investing that much.

I don't bet. But I'll go with Dortmund too, just so I have a horse to root for when watching on TV
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Old 05-02-2015, 03:17 PM   #4
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A $2 name pulled out of a hat...
"It's a Knockout" 28 to 1
sheesh... one of us is born every minute.
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Old 05-02-2015, 06:14 PM   #5
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I'm surprised the odds on favorite won. Almost makes things too easy
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Old 05-02-2015, 09:43 PM   #6
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Results... pretty good guesses...
My "Itsaknockout" beat Carpe Diem
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Old 05-03-2015, 09:16 AM   #7
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Now the big question, will we see a triple crown winner in 2015. Me thinks, probably not.
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Old 05-03-2015, 03:27 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by DFW_M5 View Post
Now the big question, will we see a triple crown winner in 2015. Me thinks, probably not.
Indeed, probably not, especially given the fairly competitive finish in the race. It was one of the better Derby finishes I can remember.
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Old 05-16-2015, 12:10 PM   #9
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Any predictions on the Preakness this afternoon?

I'm going with

1st place - Dortmund

2nd place - American Pharoah

Oh, since I'm not really betting, but if I was, as a long shot I'd wager on Bodhisattva.
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Old 05-16-2015, 12:28 PM   #10
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Firing Line....1st

American Pharoah...2nd
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Old 05-16-2015, 05:56 PM   #11
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So, here we go again.

Now.. can American Pharoah win the triple crown or will he do a California Chrome?
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Old 05-17-2015, 09:11 AM   #12
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That was an impressive win coming off the rail. Nevertheless, the Belmont is quite a different race due to the distance and many great horses fail. It would be nice to see another triple crown winner, but IIRC there were something like 12 other horses, since Affirmed, that won going into the Belmont and then failed.
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Old 05-17-2015, 11:52 AM   #13
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I was surprised American Pharoah led pretty much wire to wire with no challenge, especially in the #1 post.
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Old 05-17-2015, 12:49 PM   #14
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Oops, I meant to say coming out of the #1 post position, as AP stayed on the rail for the entire race.
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Old 05-17-2015, 01:23 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DFW_M5 View Post
That was an impressive win coming off the rail. Nevertheless, the Belmont is quite a different race due to the distance and many great horses fail. It would be nice to see another triple crown winner, but IIRC there were something like 12 other horses, since Affirmed, that won going into the Belmont and then failed.
Yes, 12 exactly. I just read FiveThirtyEight's blog post on this topic here: Be Skeptical Of American Pharoah | FiveThirtyEight

Their conclusion: "Say you took $2 in 1979 and used it to bet against Spectacular Bid winning the Belmont at racebook odds, and then just “let it ride” betting it all against every horse that won the Derby and Preakness. Assuming you gave up 15 percent to the “takeout” (horse racing’s equivalent of the rake) each year, you’d have over $15,000 today (with no takeout, you’d have over $100,000)."
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Old 06-04-2015, 07:48 PM   #16
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I'm making things nice and easy.

Joining the bandwagon and picking American Pharoah to make history at the Belmont.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:15 AM   #17
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A very small field of horses and not starting in the post position this time should favor AP.
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Old 06-05-2015, 07:42 AM   #18
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Plus, if there is history, I don't want to be on the wrong side .
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Old 06-05-2015, 08:49 AM   #19
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In honor of the Belmont, and a possible Triple Crown, here's a look at one of the most amazing horses/races in history...

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Old 06-05-2015, 10:52 AM   #20
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In honor of the Belmont, and a possible Triple Crown, here's a look at one of the most amazing horses/races in history...
We may get a new triple crown winner this year, but Secretariats time will not be touched. That race gives me goosebumps; what a true super horse he was. Thanks for posting.
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