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longevity graphic from FiveThirtyEight
Old 09-23-2015, 04:26 PM   #1
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longevity graphic from FiveThirtyEight

Nothing anyone here doesn't know, just an entertaining graphic.
Years You Have Left to Live, Probably | FlowingData
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Old 09-23-2015, 04:30 PM   #2
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For men, it's 76 years and 5 months.
About 5 more years before I reach the tipping point. I'd better start spending more...
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Old 09-23-2015, 05:43 PM   #3
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About 12 more years for me before I "might" beat the average. The individual data points were dropping to fast for me to see the one with my name on it.
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Old 09-23-2015, 06:38 PM   #4
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Yes, they surely drop like flies.
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Old 09-23-2015, 06:57 PM   #5
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It looks like anybody over 80 years old can go tomorrow...


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Old 09-23-2015, 07:22 PM   #6
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So, just taking my age and gender into account, I have the same probability of dying in less than ten years as I do living another 50 or more.

An accurate expiration date that I could read now would make retirement planning so much easier.
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Old 09-23-2015, 07:27 PM   #7
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The graphic is a great way of focusing on the inevitable.
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Old 09-23-2015, 08:02 PM   #8
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So, just taking my age and gender into account, I have the same probability of dying in less than ten years as I do living another 50 or more.

An accurate expiration date that I could read now would make retirement planning so much easier.
Probability brings cold comfort (oops) -
Using something called the Gompertz Law of human mortality, your probability of dying during a given year doubles every 8 years.
So the expiration date looks something like this -



not too helpful. The best we can do is try to beat the odds.
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Old 09-24-2015, 08:16 AM   #9
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Great graphic. Those balls really start dropping in your mid 80s.
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:02 AM   #10
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Great graphic. Those balls really start dropping in your mid 80s.
Looks like they bounce a little higher though
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:55 AM   #11
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Looking on the optimistic side . . . the data do not account for the fact that life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing by about a year per decade (a trend that has held for a long time and is even slightly accelerating). Also, if you are an educated non-smoker who cares about your health, that has got to help a little ;-)
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Old 09-24-2015, 01:19 PM   #12
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Looking on the optimistic side . . . the data do not account for the fact that life expectancy at age 65 has been increasing by about a year per decade (a trend that has held for a long time and is even slightly accelerating). Also, if you are an educated non-smoker who cares about your health, that has got to help a little ;-)
I'm educated (well somewhat) quit smoking well over 30 years ago, (still miss it) reasonably care about my health, both of my parent are still living and in their early 90's, great grandfather lived past 100, etc. However I'm a high energy person and I tend to burn the candle at both ends, so to speak. The aches and pains are accumulating and I seriously doubt that I'll beat the averages. But I'm not about to intentionally slow down now just so "maybe" I can have a few more years. No doubt, father time is slowing me down and he's winning, but I'm still pushing back.

Although modern medicine is getting a lot better, it's to bad that people can't be like one of my older collectible cars and simply spend a few months "in a shop" getting a full internal and external restoration. Heck even a major tune-up would be nice.
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Old 09-24-2015, 02:24 PM   #13
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yeah, I saw this yesterday. Unfortunately, it's giving me the same odds for 20-29 years as it is for 30-39 years where the peaks are. Pretty wide window. Just hope I got my Dad's genes - he made it to 91 1/2. Or one of his brothers and one of his sisters, both of which made it to 94. The rest of them made it to their mid 80's


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Old 09-24-2015, 02:51 PM   #14
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Just to see what would happen I ran it up as far as it would go - 116. A steady rain of balls with the occasional outlier to 117.
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