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Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 06:36 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,893
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Market direction for this coming week ?
In light of the crisis in the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc. what will the market do in the coming week(s).
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 07:48 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
In light of the crisis in the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc. what will the market do in the coming week(s).
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Without question, it will go up and down. Or down and up.
These are the times that test your ass et allocation.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 08:52 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,192
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
since we all think down,,,up it goes
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 09:19 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,490
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
what will be the specific changes in "the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc" ? when we know that, we'll better be able to predict their effects on the market.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 09:24 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: DFW
Posts: 2,016
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Wherever it goes, there I go. I've already bought my ticket on the Vanguard Index Vehicle! Can't jump off now!
__________________
Resist much. Obey Little. . . . Ed Abbey
Disclaimer: My Posts are for my amusement only.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 09:36 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Nobody else can predict the future either. They're all sitting out there wondering what everyone else is going to do on Monday morning and how they should react. It's what makes investing so interesting.
"OK, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning. So everybody's waiting for them to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap. The people with pork belly contracts are thinking, 'Hey, we're losing all our money and Christmas is coming. I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip. And my wife won't make love to me cos I ain't got no money.' They're panicking, screaming, 'Sell, sell.' They don't want to lose all their money. They are panicking right now. I can feel it. Look at them."
And, one of my other favorites from the same movie:
"Tell him the good part."
"The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions."
What's going to happen next week? As far as my crystal ball works all I see for sure is Isreal going into Lebanon and Gaza. The first is a risky move - Hezbollah is waiting on them and it will be a real scrap. The real question is what will Syria and Iran do. Will Iran pull it's oil off the market? That won't hurt us directly because the US has restricted Iranian oil imports, but it will be a shock to the world oil market which will in turn affect us. Will this be the exogenous shock that brings a major dip in the market? Too many questions that I can't answer - time for another cup of coffee.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 11:24 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
I dont care.
Couple of years spending in low volatility stuff and the dividend checks are still going to show up whether it goes up or down.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 11:26 AM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Okanagan Valley
Posts: 808
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
No idea what it will do but I believe general trend is down through mid-term elections. *I plan to do nothing except watch for select buying opportunities over the next several months. *Currently ~35% cash, most of it in highly liquid form.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 11:46 AM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Currently ~35% cash, most of it in highly liquid form.
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Scotch, whiskey, and vodka? dont forget your gold and ammo.........I am also in the camp that doesnt care..except for putting more cash to work... 8)
__________________
- Hurry! to the cliffs of insanity!
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 11:47 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 718
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Run for the hills wommins n chillen first!
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 12:19 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas
"The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions."[/i]
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This was the favorite movie of my wife's former boss at the Mega I-bank. He watched it every day when he was home sick. No matter what happens to the market, they make money on every trade! Hey, it puts food on our table too!
On-topic: The market will be up and down. I think a lot of the worst case scenario was already priced into the markets by Friday. Kim Ding-Dong Ill is still crazy - not news. Unrest in the middle east - is this really news? Just slightly worse than usual. If Syria, Iran and other players start ganging up on Israel, then we might see a significant drop. Assuming this isn't the start of WW III, this will most likely be looked back upon as a "buying opportunity". In the meantime, I'll keep DCAing into my 401k and Vanguard index funds. But everyone else, feel free to sell. I don't mind if things go on sale while I'm buying.
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 02:18 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
I expect a continued sell-off. Many people are sitting with trailing stop loss orders at 10% from the peak. Many of those have not yet kicked in. Apple has for sure, and IBM.
And the people like me who sold off between last August and March are still waiting before dribbling back in. Currently 67% cash and bonds. Would like to move that down to 60% in the next 12-18 months.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 02:39 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Definately will be volatile, but it is tough to guess the overall direction since there will be so much "news". CPI, PPI, Israel, Bernanke testifying, etc. I think that unless Syria and Iran start mixing it up with Israel (and get themselves nuked), you will see the market get used to the Lebanon mess. If that fades into the background, attention will be focused once more on the inflation figures and any hints dropped by the Fed. I think we get one more rate bump this year, and then it will become apparent that the economy has taken too many body blows and the Fed will need to pause/cut rates.
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"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 03:01 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,891
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by d
what will be the specific changes in "the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc" ? when we know that, we'll better be able to predict their effects on the market.
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Sorry, but I disagree. The way I look at it, 'when we know that' it is too late 'to predict their effects on the market.' Because, 'when we know that', the whole market knows that, and has already responded. The market is not going to politely wait for us to buy or sell, and then go up/down. It will happen in real time, before we can react.
Predictions require a crystal ball, or inside info that the 'market' does not have - hmmm, or luck?
-ERD50
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 03:07 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
I believe (and hope) Iran is realizing they overplayed their hand.* As the sponsor of H&H, they wanted to stir up some stuff before their trip before the Security Council on their nukes.* Them having nukes is the real risk in my opinion.
As for retaliating with their oil, Iran sells oil but needs to import gasoline and other distillates.* If they shut off the oil, they will lose their distillates.* When all of their trucks stop in about a week, they may have some minor other problems.
One big thing occurred over the weekend that didn't seem to get much press.* The Arab League wouldn't support a unified condemnation of Israel.* They are clearly not going to blindly support Iran who they clearly see as the bigger theat to the region.
This too will pass.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 06:51 PM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 859
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
The market only cares about the price of oil. I think the conflict has already been priced into the oil market. Postive Profits reports will start to roll in.
Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3 W: -5 Th: +4 Fi: -1
For the week: +8
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 08:47 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,005
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3 W: -5 Th: +4 Fi: -1
For the week: +8
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Percent? Points?
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 08:55 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dmpi
Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3* W: -5* Th: +4* Fi: -1
For the week: +8
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I calculate that your odds of even getting those signs right are 1 in 64. * *Your odds of getting the numbers right (what are those, percentages?) are about 1 in a million.
It would be a cool trick if you can do it, though. *
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-16-2006, 09:01 PM
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#19
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 859
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
Percent?* Points?
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Points
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
07-17-2006, 02:12 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 1,490
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Re: Market direction for this coming week ?
rather surprising lack of movement today!
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