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Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 03:54 PM   #1
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Market reaction to Katrina.

Does anyone find the aftermath of Katrina and the behavior of the stock market to be at odds?* I can't help thinking this is not going to end well.* * *
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 04:02 PM   #2
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

The market behavior doesn't seem that strange. Most of the losses are insured against, and through reinsurance, the risk is held at a national and international level.

With all the damage comes a surge in cleanup ($) and reconstruction ($$).

Or I'm wrong. Since I dollar cost average into the market and hold forever (until I retire), my understanding of the market doesn't really matter for my investment purposes.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 04:04 PM   #3
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by riskaverse
Does anyone find the aftermath of Katrina and the behavior of the stock market to be at odds?* I can't help thinking this is not going to end well.* * *
I agree. Betting on lower markets ahead. *Sitting on cash and oil stocks waiting for the bell to ring. *They do ring a bell at the low don't they?
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 04:07 PM   #4
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

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Originally Posted by JPatrick
I agree. Betting on lower markets ahead. Sitting on cash and oil stocks waiting for the bell to ring. They do ring a bell at the low don't they?
Yup, yup, yup. But you have to have your ear in Wall Street's butt to hear it.

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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 04:17 PM   #5
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by justin
The market behavior doesn't seem that strange.* Most of the losses are insured against, and through reinsurance, the risk is held at a national and international level.*

With all the damage comes a surge in cleanup ($) and reconstruction ($$).*
I find the whole thing perplexing. The companes that will benefit from reconstroction (FRK, for one) are way up, as are any of the refiners and E&P guys who didn't get completely crushed in the gulf. However, $3.50 a gallon gas is a disaster for the "real" economy if it lasts more than a few weeks. I think we are in for a long, expensive winter, and if that is the case you can kiss the Xmas season goodbye for all but the highest end retailers.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 04:34 PM   #6
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Concurr.

MSNBC was commenting that construction related firms would be adversely impacted based housing prices.* I don't think so, it looks to me that there is a lot to be done as a result of the storm.* Material suppliers should be happy too.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 07:58 PM   #7
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

In any case, the gas station frenzy I saw and the apparent widespread destruction of the refining and nat gas production capacity in the gulf does not make me want to be long anything economically sensitive, especially retailers that target the middle class or lower. Its got me rethinking my NLS position too. If I see another up day I may sell some covered calls on half my position.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 10:14 PM   #8
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Seems as though many think this is aftermath will have a short life. Surprised to see the markets up. To me it will impact the econ a bit longer than expected. Ports shut down, gas up for a while, consumer nervousness, soft commodity crops will see some damage (i.e. MS cotton poof be gone) & increase prices, blah blah. I am signing off before I start too much like Greg
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 10:22 PM   #9
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
I find the whole thing perplexing. The companes that will benefit from reconstroction (FRK, for one) are way up, as are any of the refiners and E&P guys who didn't get completely crushed in the gulf. However, $3.50 a gallon gas is a disaster for the "real" economy if it lasts more than a few weeks. I think we are in for a long, expensive winter, and if that is the case you can kiss the Xmas season goodbye for all but the highest end retailers.
I didn't even think of that, cripes! X-mas is just around the corner, and many retailers get out of the red just from those six weeks of the year.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 10:38 PM   #10
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

I agree ... I'm beginning to think that if we woke up tomorrow and heard LA was blown away by terrorists, the markets would be up 1% again.

Not only do we have the fuel / oil crunch ... the domestic auto OEM's were so desperate, they pulled ahead large amounts of business into July, Aug, Sept with their employee-discount programs ... hurt many retailers.

Some say all of this is already factored into market prices ... hard to believe.

But, this is another example of my complete inability to time markets.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 11:23 PM   #11
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

All I know about the market is that nobody is saying there is a bubble in equities, and most people are predicting sideways movement for a while. That's good enough for me to keep buying.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 08-31-2005, 11:39 PM   #12
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by retire@40
All I know about the market is that nobody is saying there is a bubble in equities, and most people are predicting sideways movement for a while. That's good enough for me to keep buying.
Retire - in 45 years of following the market, I've seen it take a dump whenever it wanted bubble or not, its unpredicability fascinates me...
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 07:36 AM   #13
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanTien
Retire - in 45 years of following the market, I've seen it take a dump whenever it wanted bubble or not, its unpredicability fascinates me...
Yes! This is what bugs me about investing.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 07:46 AM   #14
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martha
Yes!* This is what bugs me about investing.*
That's the tough part of being an investor in volatile assets: some days, it is your turn in the barrel.
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 08:05 AM   #15
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
That's the tough part of being an investor in volatile assets: some days, it is your turn in the barrel.
I just read that evacuation from the Superdome has stopped because shots were fired at rescue helicopters. Hummm! Maybe JG should take some of that money he has made from credit card borrowing, send it to the NRA so that they can send guns to NO to pass out to citizens, then someone will shoot those dang shooters who have interupted rescue operations. Humm! Maybe not.

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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 08:16 AM   #16
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Yea, more guns!

What a great idea.

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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 08:38 AM   #17
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
... Hummm! Maybe JG should take some of that money he has made from credit card borrowing, send it to the NRA so that they can send guns to NO to pass out to citizens, then someone will shoot those dang shooters who have interupted rescue operations....
Since we haven't heard from JG in almost a week, could be he's in NO making citizens arrests of looters & shooters. Can't you hear him saying "Go ahead...make my day"?

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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 09:04 AM   #18
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
I just read that evacuation from the Superdome has stopped because shots were fired at rescue helicopters.* Hummm!* Maybe JG should take some of that money he has made from credit card borrowing, send it to the NRA so that they can send guns to NO to pass out to citizens, then someone will shoot those dang shooters who have interupted rescue operations.* Humm!* *Maybe not.

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[/quote

NOLA has a high crime rate, and really, high everything else bad rate.* No doubt they have 1000's and 1000's of people who are parole violators or have warrants on them for past deeds.* Then there's the 1000's who should be in that category, but have not been ID'ed yet.* With society functioning in a normal mode the opportunity to offend is perhaps at 20 on a scale of 1 to 100.* Take away the constraints and the opportunity pops to 80, 90, 100??
Given the same disaster circumstances, this sad situation could and probably would unfold in many of our major cities. Increased taxes for more prisons anyone??
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 09:15 AM   #19
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

I should add, that I do recognize the difference between looting for survival and criminal acts..Mommas are supposed to take care of their kids someway somehow.
If it takes looting to do that- - I say press on Momma
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.
Old 09-01-2005, 09:22 AM   #20
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Re: Market reaction to Katrina.

The mayor of NOLA is so mad about the looting and would rather see it stopped than to continue search and rescue? Who cares if people steal a tv, its not like they can plug it in and use it anywhere?
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