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Old 10-10-2014, 05:15 PM   #381
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That's why I think hybrids will be the dominant technology going forward for the next 15 years or more, I just don't think pure EVs are going to compete.
-ERD50
We agree on that one, although I'm more optimistic (10 years and bigger cars will switch to electric). Electric has another big advantage: simplicity. Fewer components mean higher reliability, less garage visits, faster engine design. Only thing holding it back therefore really is cost / wh capacity. That's a big reason why Tesla is building the gigafactory.

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As I said, ICE/hybrids aren't standing still, the ICE is inefficient enough that new materials and techniques might ring out considerable efficiency improvements, which is not the case with electric motors and batteries (being+90% already). There's also the potential for small turbines to replace the ICE - new materials are making these more competitive. Or some new development?
-ERD50
As far as I know, ICE don't have alot of room left to improve efficiency unfortunately, and have a firm limit around 37% or so. It's inherently inferior to electric engines. I heard experts stating that a 10% increase in mpg is the most you'll get in the future. Talking about cars that are designed today with fuel efficiency in mind. You see most of them in Europe, advertised in the 50 - 60 mpg range.

Ironically, what helps the ICE the most is a decent battery: The ICE runs at an efficient constant rpm so ideally does not drive the wheels directly: it recharges the battery. That's why hybrids shine so much right now: electric for variable loads, ICE for constant loads, gasoline for low weight.

The final tipping point to go full electric is when the added cost of the ICE outweighs the cost for a large enough battery while factoring in fuel use. Not sure what that added cost is though.

Anyway, it depends on battery cost and weight evolving as it has done in the past. No garantuees there.
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More on the Tesla electric car
Old 10-10-2014, 06:52 PM   #382
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More on the Tesla electric car

IMHO, The greatest risk to a Tesla owner is not the batteries, charging time or even cheap, economical hybrids. It is the small but real possibility that the company itself will fail and the owners will end up with a difficult to maintain orphan.

Much of Tesla's profit is reputed to be on the sale of ZEV credits to other auto manufacturers. While that may help finance R&D costs of future cars, at some point the car itself has to turn a profit. Or does it now? I don't know. My guess is that at some point Tesla will acquire a partner with big bucks to finance a big increase in production.

After all, Mr Musk's real goal is to drive a future Tesla on Mars. :-) Right?
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Old 10-10-2014, 09:42 PM   #383
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I know this has been mentioned before, but I will just state it again....

After you get into the 30 to 40 mpg range, getting a bit better is not that much in terms of 'savings'....

As an example.... going from 20mpg to 30mpg is a 67% savings...

Going from 30 to 45 is also a 67% savings... However, the first one saves 200 gallons but the second only 133 gallons... even though you increased mpg by 15...

Going from 50mpg to 100mpg only saves 120 gallons....

All improvements have diminishing returns....
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Old 10-10-2014, 09:56 PM   #384
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The tesla s handles itself very well against a corvette





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Old 10-10-2014, 10:10 PM   #385
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Hybrids versus full EV:
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Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
We agree on that one, although I'm more optimistic (10 years and bigger cars will switch to electric). Electric has another big advantage: simplicity. Fewer components mean higher reliability, less garage visits, faster engine design. Only thing holding it back therefore really is cost / wh capacity. That's a big reason why Tesla is building the gigafactory. ...
Simplicity is very compelling. It's one of the reasons that years ago, I really hoped I'd be driving an EV in the near future. But ICEs have made tremendous advances. Back then, you adjusted points, replaced spark plugs annually, 3000 mile / 3 month oil changes, etc. Now, you do 6 month or annual oil changes, some spark plugs are good for 100,000 miles, occasional air filter changes, and a hybrid also reduces brake replacements. Engine related maintenance on most cars today is really pretty minimal.



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As far as I know, ICE don't have a lot of room left to improve efficiency unfortunately, and have a firm limit around 37% or so. It's inherently inferior to electric engines. I heard experts stating that a 10% increase in mpg is the most you'll get in the future.
Yes, the Carnot Limit I think is around 37% (googled and found this from MIT : Today’s car engines have efficiencies of 20 percent or less, compared to their Carnot Limit of 37 percent. But that puts them at ~ 54% of theoretical, so there is some room. Plus, there are other ideas for secondary systems to recover that waste heat. And I've read about adding a 5th power cycle to pull energy from the remaining heat, and free-piston engines for series hybrids. And we don't need to limit ourselves, small turbines might be a better source in the future - those are also very low maintenance.


Quote:
Talking about cars that are designed today with fuel efficiency in mind. You see most of them in Europe, advertised in the 50 - 60 mpg range.
But getting a significant percent of the US fleet up near those levels would be a big improvement for the US. Fuel savings above 50 mpg is diminishing returns (better measured in gallons per 1,000 miles) [edit/add: as Texas Proud also pointed out - I cross posted this].

Quote:
Ironically, what helps the ICE the most is a decent battery: The ICE runs at an efficient constant rpm so ideally does not drive the wheels directly: it recharges the battery. That's why hybrids shine so much right now: electric for variable loads, ICE for constant loads, gasoline for low weight.
Exactly. Like if we could build a 20 mile plug-in series hybrid as I mentioned earlier.

Quote:
The final tipping point to go full electric is when the added cost of the ICE outweighs the cost for a large enough battery while factoring in fuel use. Not sure what that added cost is though.

Anyway, it depends on battery cost and weight evolving as it has done in the past. No garantuees there.
Yes, we will see. But it is years out, and then many years before enough are purchased to make up a significant percentage of the fleet (cars last a long time these days). So people who are flag waving for EVs won't see any significant benefits for even longer. As I've pointed out way back in this thread, the environmental benefits of EVs over a current hybrid are marginal at best, and far worse by many other measures (SOx and NOx).

And all the hoopla over lower oil imports - by the time EVs make up 10% of total annual miles (long distance cars and trucks aren't going EV as quickly, if ever), increased efficiency of the other 90% of the miles driven will swamp that out.



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IMHO, The greatest risk to a Tesla owner is not the batteries, charging time or even cheap, economical hybrids. It is the small but real possibility that the company itself will fail and the owners will end up with a difficult to maintain orphan.

Much of Tesla's profit is reputed to be on the sale of ZEV credits to other auto manufacturers. While that may help finance R&D costs of future cars, at some point the car itself has to turn a profit. Or does it now? I don't know. My guess is that at some point Tesla will acquire a partner with big bucks to finance a big increase in production.

After all, Mr Musk's real goal is to drive a future Tesla on Mars. :-) Right?
I have also read that much of their revenue comes from these credits from other manufacturers. I don't know enough about their financials to say what happens as those phase out. Clearly, Elon Musk is a brilliant and pragmatic guy with a track record - I'm guessing he has plan, and selling it off could be it. Hey, then he could get that Hyperloop started!

I do expect Tesla to have a 'trickle down' effect for all of us. He has taken some innovate approaches that the old more stagnant car companies just couldn't seem to pull off. But they will copy him.

-ERD50
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Old 10-10-2014, 10:40 PM   #386
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The tesla s handles itself very well against a corvette





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Sure does, but I'll take that new Vette any day over a the electric car.
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Old 10-11-2014, 02:04 AM   #387
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Also reduce CO2 and other emissions for more gas efficient cars.
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Old 10-11-2014, 04:15 AM   #388
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The tesla s handles itself very well against a corvette
Let's try it again to a distance of 300 miles.
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Old 10-11-2014, 04:50 AM   #389
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As an example.... going from 20mpg to 30mpg is a 67% savings...
To go 100 miles at 20 MPG = 5 gal
To go 100 miles at 30 MPG = 3.33 gal

savings = 1.66/5 = 33% . Right?
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Old 10-11-2014, 08:26 AM   #390
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Sure does, but I'll take that new Vette any day over a the electric car.

Me too.

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Let's try it again to a distance of 300 miles.

Exactly. That corvette would be cruising along with half a tank of gas after 300 miles while the tesla is looking for a place to recharge.


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Old 10-11-2014, 08:26 AM   #391
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To go 100 miles at 20 MPG = 5 gal
To go 100 miles at 30 MPG = 3.33 gal

savings = 1.66/5 = 33% . Right?
Opps... got my math backwards... should have said uses 67%...
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Old 10-11-2014, 08:28 AM   #392
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Me too.




Exactly. That corvette would be cruising along with half a tank of gas after 300 miles while the tesla is looking for a place to recharge.


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Who cares about 300 miles on the highway.... lets do a track day and see which one comes out ahead....
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More on the Tesla electric car
Old 10-11-2014, 08:42 AM   #393
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More on the Tesla electric car

I would like to see how the tesla would do on a road course track. It seems like it has a good front/back weight ratio that should make it a great handling car. My guess is that the corvette would easily outperform a tesla on a road course


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Old 10-11-2014, 10:27 AM   #394
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There is a class race for electric cars:

Formula E - Official FIA Formula E Championship
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Old 10-11-2014, 10:41 AM   #395
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Ouch!
Based on cost, I am getting around 135mpg. We are moving within a year and that will change to about 270mpg.

If they haven't already, I would suggest to your friend to check to see if their utility has an off peak or time of use billing rate.

Although 38mpg isn't bad I suppose. Much better than average.
You must be headed to a place with really cheap electric. And it shows how one needs to know their cost of electric power. In my Ford Focus Electric car in 12,268 miles I have averaged 239.1 watts per mile. I have a cheap TOU meter and am charged 8 cents per KWH (plus a standard fixed fee of $20 per mo, paid by all customers). I figure quite accurately that I get 110 MPGe when charging at the lowest rate. When I have to use commercial chargers it can go as low as 60MPGe. I can see the Tesla doing 135 MPGe as it would have a very efficient charging system, less parasitic losses. But 270 MPGe would have to be cheaper electric than I have encountered.
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Old 11-03-2014, 10:42 PM   #396
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The new Tesla D is truly amazing car.

Here is Motor Trends test drive.
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In the options selection, you'll be able to choose [between] three settings: Normal. Sport. And Insane." Elon Musk glanced around and grinned. More on Motortrend.com:
Tesla D is a Dual-Motor, All-Wheel-Drive Model S
"Yeah, it will actually say 'In-sane.'"


Musk chortled, along with the 2,000-strong crowd eating out of the palm of his hand. Although Wall Street analysts were soured by his Los Angeles presentation of the Dual Motor Tesla Model S P85D and the mysteriously tweeted "something else" (Musk's personal wealth dropped $500 million by the next morning), all we can say is that the Wall Street suits haven't ridden in the Model S P85D. And best they don't if they want to keep their Brooks Brothers slacks dry, because we've just tested it, and as insane goes, it makes Charlie Manson look like Charlie Rose.
At 0-60 in 3.1 seconds it's as fast a McLaren F1

Even more impressive is comes with an impressive autodrive mode, which allows the car to drive and park itself. Although I still have fun driving with my pathetic bare bones S40, so why you would let a computer drive an even more awesome car I am not sure.

A nice video of how it works is here.

Today I got to use the integrated calendar on the Tesla for the first time. I get in the car and the display says you have a meeting at 10:30 at Ka Uka. Pretty handy if you had forgotten. But certainly by next year you can tap the link and the car will drive you to your destination, in total hands freemode. To be honest the big screen and the web available are a significant distraction in heavy traffice, so I'd love the option to say. Ok car you drive I'm go read the ER board, check my stocks etc..

Tesla stock is insanely expensive, but when they make normally frugal guys like me, think about trading my really nice 15 month old car for this years model, maybe not so crazy/
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Old 11-04-2014, 05:58 AM   #397
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My favorite line was "...you're not so much accelerating as you are pneumatically sucked into the future.".

As for the calander, if an address is listed for the appointment it will show in the car as a link. Click the link and it is loaded into your navigation
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Old 11-04-2014, 10:16 AM   #398
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I think oil can go to $15 a barrel and Tesla owners will still be wearing their watermelon smiles.
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Old 11-04-2014, 03:23 PM   #399
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I think oil can go to $15 a barrel and Tesla owners will still be wearing their watermelon smiles.

Pretty much. I used between 300-400 gallons/year in Hawaii and even in California less than 600 gallons. So honestly the difference between $3 and $4 gallon isn't that big a deal. Its nice rationalization for buying the car and probably really fairly important if you drive say 20,000 miles.

But its the sheer convenience of never having to go to a gas station, that is one of the big appeals. Along with the sheer pleasure of driving the car and the unexpected pleasures of getting into your car and finding new features that make it a better vehicle.
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Old 11-04-2014, 07:04 PM   #400
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That eight year, infinite mile warranty can't hurt either.
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