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Elon tweets on Range Anxiety
Old 03-18-2015, 12:26 PM   #401
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Elon tweets on Range Anxiety

http://dcinno.streetwise.co/2015/03/...mprove-engine/

Quote:
Elon Musk claimed that a software update to be announced on Thursday will fix "range anxiety" for Tesla Model S owners, but how exactly a software update will make Tesla drivers feel comfortable about traveling longer distances isn't clear. The answer may be in a software upgrade for the electric motor's inverter ...

The inverter is the part of the motor that converts direct current into alternating current, providing the power that moves the car. If Tesla has a way to modify the frequency of the inverter, it could make the electric motor more efficient by converting the electric charge more quickly.

.... A new, more accurate measurement of the charge left in the battery and how far that will get the driver before they need a charge might be helpful, but it wouldn't have quite the impact of literally downloading a better engine. And while battery swapping systems are starting to be implemented at Tesla charging stations, Musk confirmed on Twitter that that's not what he meant by ending range anxiety. Everyone will just have to find out on Thursday how Tesla will be calming its customers.
I'm pretty sure the inverter/motor combo is already highly efficient (85-90% ?), so I doubt any software upgrade could do more than squeak out a few %.

I have thought though, about the fact that EVs and hybrids use a limited range of the battery charge to extend the useful life (talking years here, not a single charge/discharge cycle). People familiar with laptop batteries dying after a few years thought that EVs and hybrids would be the same, but laptops use a deeper charge/discharge cycle to get more time from each charge, and replacing a laptop battery isn't a big deal, and few keep their laptops 8 years or more, like a car.

Maybe Tesla has enough data at this point to determine that they can allow a deeper discharge? Or maybe allow for an occasional deeper discharge (like 4x/year or something). So if you were on a longer trip, just decide to use one of the allowed deep cycles? Maybe it would be recorded and factor into the warranty? Like sure, run it deep once a month, but warranty will be reduced by X amount for each cycle over the 4/year limit (or whatever).

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Old 03-18-2015, 12:28 PM   #402
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Maybe his software upgrade will play relaxing music?
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Old 03-18-2015, 12:51 PM   #403
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Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Maybe his software upgrade will play relaxing music?


Here ya go:

I'm Just Taking My Time - Percy Faith



Just relax, you are getting sleepy, pull over and take a nap for 8 hours while your car recharges.....



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Old 03-18-2015, 02:08 PM   #404
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In Elon's Tweets he has stated that this will
  • affect the entire Model S fleet
  • be available as an OTA update
  • will eliminate range anxiety

No range, will completely eliminate range anxiety (oddly enough more people that don't own EVs complain of range anxiety than those that do).
Improved efficiencies, range, etc simply won't have the desired effect.

My best guess is that this is a planned navigation update.

Anxiety is caused by the unknown.
To eliminate anxiety, you need to eliminate the question of, can I make that or not.
Even if the answer is "no, you can't make it", anxiety is not present. Disappointment perhaps, but no anxiety.

So if the navigation took into account ambient temperature, starting batter pack temperature, elevation changes, speed limits (with available input to state you are going faster or slower), available charging along route, etc, that would eliminate the anxiety.

Recently navigation became standard for all new cars. So if an OTA update makes it available on all cars, and eliminates the unknowns (very tall order) that would fit the bill.
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Old 03-18-2015, 02:20 PM   #405
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I do recall Jeremy Clarkson testing Tesla and with proper flogging got a whopping 55 miles out of one, while the other test car's brake fuse blew while charging. Clarkson was promptly sued by Musk for a fake test, IIRC Musk did not prove his claims.

Maybe Musk enlisted Buddhist Monks chants of OOOOM.

Should sooth the range anxiety.
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Old 03-18-2015, 02:37 PM   #406
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Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
In Elon's Tweets he has stated that this will
  • affect the entire Model S fleet
  • be available as an OTA update
  • will eliminate range anxiety

No range, will completely eliminate range anxiety ....
Improved efficiencies, range, etc simply won't have the desired effect.

My best guess is that this is a planned navigation update.

Anxiety is caused by the unknown. ....
That could be it, better prediction and more information on charging options, etc. As you point out, he did tweet "Range Anxiety", not simply "range" ( leading to the soothing music quips). Though my guess might still fit that, since maybe they couldn't talk about an occasional range increase as such, might be a question of EPA regs. So offering occasional extended range as soothing anxiety range might fit. It should be clearer tomorrow.

Quote:
(oddly enough more people that don't own EVs complain of range anxiety than those that do)
Maybe not so odd. The people who actually bought one should have been well aware of the range, and were OK using it within those limitations. If you routinely needed to make trips at/near the range limit, and no second vehicle, and no time/opportunity to charge in between - you probably just didn't buy one, and therefore would not be an owner who complains about range anxiety! It's somewhat self-selecting. Also, more people don't own EVs than do!

At any rate, the release should be interesting.


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Old 03-19-2015, 11:22 AM   #407
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Elon today:

Quote:
The first of the two application is range assurance application. This , in real time, communicates with Superchargers and destination chargers and it warns you before you drive out of range.

.... Also factors in wind speeds, high mountain ranges. Don't need to do any thinking ahead of time.

...
Quote:
"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."
Well that's a huge hunk of hyperbole - he means you can't knowingly run out of range, which is true of gas cars or any EV - watch your gauge. Sure, this is more advanced, and helps you plan, but the range is still the range.

Quote:
The second feature is trip planner. It will now look up supercharger in real time to get you to the most convenient route to your destination.
All nice stuff, but I think that's a real stretch from his tweet - 'About to end range anxiety ... via OTA software update. Affects entire Model S fleet.' No, it allows for better planning. How about an unexpected side trip while you are on a planned trip that doesn't have much margin? Ever get a call and have to make a side trip (Hey, Joe, can you stop by the supplier's office and pick up the prototype on the way to the meeting - they just finished it?)? Ever realize you forgot something, need to drive back to get it, and now you are behind schedule?

It doesn't end range anxiety. Too much hype for me.

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Old 03-19-2015, 11:29 AM   #408
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The moment of truth for Tesla will be in about a couple of years if Chevy delivers on the Bolt as they claimed.

Then Tesla will need to have the Model 3 out shortly thereafter.
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Old 03-19-2015, 12:02 PM   #409
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The market was not impressed. TSLA spiked down at the announcement. A little recovery since.

edit... or maybe not a recovery...



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File Type: png TSLA vs SPY 1DAY- 03192015 - 12:10:25 PM.png (40.2 KB, 5 views)
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Old 03-19-2015, 12:46 PM   #410
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DD missed an exit and ran out of gas in her Prius last summer. The car continued until the battery pack was so dead that when AAA brought her some gas the car wouldn't start and the dash lights wouldn't come on. She had to have it towed to the Toyota dealer where they recharged the battery and it has been fine since. Hybrids and EVs are just different than gas only powered cars.
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Old 03-19-2015, 01:08 PM   #411
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I just saw another reference to this:

Quote:
"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."
Isn't that pretty much the definition of tautology? You can't run out of range unless you try to drive the car beyond its range?

I guess I should stop worrying about running out of money, I'll just make sure I never spend enough to run out of money. Problem solved!

Sorry, but I expect more from Musk (he is an impressive guy).

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Old 03-19-2015, 01:21 PM   #412
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Originally Posted by explanade View Post
The moment of truth for Tesla will be in about a couple of years if Chevy delivers on the Bolt as they claimed.

Then Tesla will need to have the Model 3 out shortly thereafter.
I would guess potential Chevy Bolt buyers have little if anything in common with Tesla Model S buyers. In fact that was the genius that led to Tesla's relative success so far, catering to upscale buyers at the outset - differentiating Tesla from the 'bargain' EV brands. So the Bolt may not be any more of a threat to the upmarket Teslas than a Malibu is to a Lexus LS.
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Old 03-19-2015, 01:39 PM   #413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
DD missed an exit and ran out of gas in her Prius last summer. The car continued until the battery pack was so dead that when AAA brought her some gas the car wouldn't start and the dash lights wouldn't come on. She had to have it towed to the Toyota dealer where they recharged the battery and it has been fine since. Hybrids and EVs are just different than gas only powered cars.
On my Escape, there is an emergency mini inverter that will charge the 330 volt battery off the 12 volt battery. So, in a similar case, you could jump the 12 volt battery from a tow truck and charge the 330 volt battery enough to start the vehicle. Once it is running, it can charge up both batteries quickly.

I believe that later models had this feature cost-reduced out.
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Old 03-19-2015, 01:52 PM   #414
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Hum.. DD recently shared the fact that she is buying a Tesla. Their other vehicle is an SUV which will haul her family and stuff on trips. My take is that she will use the Tesla in the SF Metro area, primarily going back & forth to work.

Her husband says he wants to drive it at least once a week.
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Old 03-19-2015, 02:23 PM   #415
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Hum.. DD recently shared the fact that she is buying a Tesla. Their other vehicle is an SUV which will haul her family and stuff on trips. My take is that she will use the Tesla in the SF Metro area, primarily going back & forth to work.

Her husband says he wants to drive it at least once a week.
EV's make sense as second cars for most people. But I assume there are very few households that don't have at least one ICE or hybrid vs EV(s) only.
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Old 03-19-2015, 03:17 PM   #416
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EV's make sense as second cars for most people. But I assume there are very few households that don't have at least one ICE or hybrid vs EV(s) only.
Agreed, maybe some with good public transportation would be in the few that you mention.

Even at that, the range can be an issue for a second car. I recall my daughter had a problem with her car just as she was heading back to school, I decided to loan mine (our second car) to her, so I could get her car in the shop at my leisure, and at a trusted mechanic.

Now if my second car was an EV, school was beyond EV range, and she had no place to charge it (street parking). Would not have worked.

Now sure, we could have rented a car, and this is clearly a somewhat rare occurrence. But it is a negative - I don't want to pay a premium for a car that just won't do what I've become accustomed to with a gas powered car. I think the more common case is when you plan a trip just within the range, then need to make a side trip that could easily exceed the range of an EV.

The negatives would be easier to live with if there was any real clear advantage to EVs. We've discussed that the environmental situation for an EV is about nil, or likely negative compared to a hybrid. Simple mechanics is nice, but offset that by the cost of replacing the battery pack at maybe 10 years, and the incredible reliability of modern cars, I just don't see the point. Well, unless someone wants expensive sports car acceleration at a relative bargain. The Tesla does that.

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Electric Cars In Georgia
Old 03-20-2015, 11:19 AM   #417
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Electric Cars In Georgia

Looks like Georgia has remarkable subsidies for electric cars:

Tax incentives: Sparks fly | The Economist

Wow, I can't imagine a 1.3 cent per Kwh charging rate.
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:17 PM   #418
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post



Simple mechanics is nice, but offset that by the cost of replacing the battery pack at maybe 10 years, and the incredible reliability of modern cars, I just don't see the point. Well, unless someone wants expensive sports car acceleration at a relative bargain. The Tesla does that.

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I don't think Tesla owners buy them because they have to pinch pennies on transportation.


The Tesla is, IMHO, supposed to be bridge car to more common and affordable electric vehicles. Whether or not this works remains to be seen.

I do remember reading an article that claimed that converting more expensive vehicles to electrify (sports cars, big SUVs, trucks, etc.) made more sense than converting cheaper cars, already economical with ICE power. Simply put, the savings on fuel for the bigger cars would be far greater than the savings when comparing a Leaf to a Corolla or a Cruz. The article had milage costs comparisons, though I am not sure what they used to represent a big truck, say an F250 type. Perhaps, they used test vehicles of some type? Or custom conversions?

FWIW, when electric vehicles have to pay their fare share of the highway taxes now included in the price of a gallon of gas, they will lose some cost advantage.

Not excepting the above, I enjoy seeing innovation and well thought out risk-taking in the area of cars and public transportation. I would like to see a successful electric car if for no other reason than to give consumers more choices in transportation. Time will tell.
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Old 03-20-2015, 12:20 PM   #419
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Looks like Georgia has remarkable subsidies for electric cars:

Tax incentives: Sparks fly | The Economist

Wow, I can't imagine a 1.3 cent per Kwh charging rate.
Link didn't work for me, but I searched the terms and got there (I think their subscription request interferes with a direct link).

Anyway, the 1.3 kWh rate is night time. Night time electricity is very low cost to produce, it doesn't require any added infrastructure, and the coal and nukes are pretty much just idling. Near zero incremental cost.

I wonder what people with TOD meters pay at night there?

I'll skip my usual subsidy rant

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Old 03-20-2015, 07:01 PM   #420
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Quote:
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... I do remember reading an article that claimed that converting more expensive vehicles to electrify (sports cars, big SUVs, trucks, etc.) made more sense than converting cheaper cars, already economical with ICE power. Simply put, the savings on fuel for the bigger cars would be far greater than the savings when comparing a Leaf to a Corolla or a Cruz...
A hybrid engine may significantly boost the gas mileage of a motorhome.

However, the gargantuan battery required may make such MH affordable to only the super rich RV'ers, who do not care about gas mileage anyway.

And improving mpg still is not an economic solution if the big vehicle is not driven enough over its life to recoup the cost.

Here hoping for a breakthrough in battery technology, which will open the floodgate to lots of exciting applications, on the road as well as at home.
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