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Old 04-03-2015, 12:51 PM   #461
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.......


Isn't this circular logic? Why develop additional infrastructure (hey, let's not forget to count the pollution for this added infrastructure) when there isn't a clear benefit in the first place? What would be gained by spending millions/billions/? on 220V/40A outlets on city streets and apartment parking lots?

-ERD50
Off tangent, but appropriate to curbside electric.

Homeless population would love to plug in their heaters etc. found in the dumpster or otherwise liberated, in the wintertime. And could easily aircondition their cardboard box home in the summer with free electric. Especially while ubplugging the Tesla's at the curb.
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Old 04-03-2015, 12:55 PM   #462
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Perhaps getting away from OP a bit, but to ERD50's point about adding infrastructure equaling circular logic. On a practical note, I recently had to go to a meeting on one of our main drags here in Paradise. I noticed that they had recently taken (or maybe added - I don't know which) an entire city-street lane for bicycles. It wasn't just a little strip as in some places, it was a whole lane. DW ran in to take care of business while I waited on the street with the car. In the 20+ minutes I waited, not a single bike whizzed by. Maybe it is true that "If you build it, they will come." but it may take a while until they find it and end up using it. I've always been old school when it comes to infrastructure. Show me the need and THEN I'll gladly contribute to building/purchasing/adding/etc. whatever is needed. Don't build it and hope folks will agree with you that it's a good idea and then will actually use it. End of rant, and oh yes, YMMV.
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Old 04-03-2015, 01:03 PM   #463
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I am all for bicycle lanes so long as they are pay per mile.

Cars and trucks pay dearly for the right to use the highways. Pedal pushers get free ride. True, they do not need curbside electric or a need to be plugged in at night.

Our town recently nixed bicycle lanes, the cost of setting them up was opposed by the local populace.
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Old 04-03-2015, 01:06 PM   #464
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But back to the subject of Tesla cars specifically and more generally, EVs, it occurred to me that if I owned one, I would look into buying a small quiet (Honda makes a very quiet one) portable generator. When I planned a trip that would otherwise cause me "range anxiety", I would throw the generator into the trunk (if they have them.) and be on my way. If for some reason there were no charging stations at the time I needed one, I would stop at a gas station, fill up my Honda (generator) plug it into the EV and look for a nice squat and gobble for a leisurely meal while I charged the EV for another (what?) 20 miles or so. Don't know if this would actually work with today's EVs, but there is no reason it couldn't be done if the electrical "plumbing" were compatible. Anyone know if a small gen (maybe 1200 watts) can be used at 110 volts to charge todays EVs? Obviously, it wouldn't be fast, but if you could get 20 miles in an hour or hour and a half of charging, most likely you could survive the occasional "dead zone" of recharging stations until the whole country is wired for EVs (see point above - if enough EVs are built, someone will be willing to put in charging stations to fuel them - not the other way around.) Sorry, I said "end of rant" above. This time I really mean it. Of course, YMMV
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Old 04-03-2015, 01:33 PM   #465
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Only have time now for a couple points, I'll try to get back to more later. ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
You have to be careful with that "% of renewables" claim from other countries. This should probably go in it's own thread, but (I'll use very round numbers as I'm going from memory now), the grid runs into trouble with relatively small % (~ 10%-20%?)of solar/wind due to the intermittent nature.
Do you have a source for that?
Here:

Denmark surpasses 100 percent wind power – German Energy Transition

Lots of numbers to sort through, and it was a while back, but it seems clear that Denmark could not 'surpass 100 percent wind power' w/o feeding other grids (or it would just be wasted anyhow). And there is this:
In other words, at a moment when Danish power exports made up roughly a third of total power production, the country had a net power deficit vis--vis Germany of some 461 MW, so Germany was covering roughly a seventh of Denmark’s power demand at the same time.
It's complicated. But isn't Germany part of the grid that should be the denominator in that % calculation? Fuzzy math.

...

Quote:
Long story short: In Europe taking a petrol or hybrid car of the road reduces emissions. Fully agree that in the US, China, and India this is not the case. Canada is >70% renewable too (large hydro).
And if EVs make more sense than hybrids in Europe (and that is an if, IMO), that's a positive for EVs. See, it's not dogma for me, I'm interested in solutions, whatever they may be. But that does not seem to be the case for EVs in the US.


Quote:
In your last post you say that 70% renewable will require lots of storage. Actually it doesn't. That's not me saying it, but Amory Lovins (a guy who really knows his stuff and leads a very respected institute, RMI) : ...
Amory Lovins is an interesting guy with some very interesting ideas. But I stopped paying much attention to him years ago, as so much of what he says depends on so many things that he just sort of hand-waves away. He is way too optimistic - that's good for promoting creativity, and unconventional ideas, and makes for interesting, engaging talks, but if something doesn't actually make it into production, it doesn't do any good. As Steve Jobs said "Real artists ship!".

And you see some of that in that video. Some quick examples - you can't simultaneously use the spare fossil-fuel capacity as back up for plant maintenance and outages and as fill in for renewable variability. Double counting = fuzzy math.

And @ 1:41, he starts by 'magically' reducing the variability of the present grid through 'efficient use'. Huh? That has nothing to do with renewable energy - so before he even starts his 'explanation', he assumes half the problem has gone away through other means, before he even applies renewable energy to the situation.

@ ~ 1:53, can you get 14% (so is that 28%? ) of the grid economically supplied from these 'dispatch-able renewable' sources he mentions - geothermal (how widely available is that in the US, and to use it as 'dispatch-able' source means it is idle much of the time - costs?); small-hydro - again, how available (and that really isn't so great environmentally when you consider construction, habitat displacement, etc - I recall something like 60-100 years to offset the greenhouse gas from construction/destruction); solar-thermal electric - cost, and I think you get several hours, not several days of storage, safety?; feedlot bio-gas - yes, we should burn it, that turns methane (a very powerful GHG) into CO2, a much less GHG affect. But I don't think feedlot gas makes up any sort of significant % to make much of a difference, though it would help.

And notice his graph of solar power doesn't drop to near zero for days/weeks on end, which is exactly what happened with a large solar installation near me several times this year, when the panels were covered in snow.


@ 2:27, he throws in some double-counting magic. He already magically made the grid demand variability 50% lower, now he just 'fills some gaps' with 'unobtrusively flexible demand'. You know, utilities today hate variability, and would like to reduce it - if this was easy, I think they would be doing it to a greater extent than they are now. And if they aren't, what would make this change?

Before that, he mentioned EVs as sink/sources for the grid. I've never understood how this could be done on a large scale (other than through wishful thinking). as long as range anxiety exists, who wants to have their EV battery drawn down? The obvious time would be during the daytime- afternoon demand peaks, right before your commute home, and after you already used some of it to get to work? I think the cases where people are willing to give up a large % of their capacity during the day will be fairly small. And adding a partial charge/discharge cycle 365 days a year will take a toll on battery life. Makes more sense to use cheaper, long life, less fussy, stationary batteries for grid leveling where you don't need the energy density required for mobile applications, but hey, that's not pandering to 'greenies' with their EVs!

@ 2:59 - Iowa and South Dakota are over 1/4 wind power. Is all that power within the state? I bet their grid in/out extends beyond those borders, but I'll let you dig up that link.

Oh well, that's enough observations for 3 minutes into a 3:47 video. I think the point is made, I'll stop there.

edit/add: OK, one more - hey, how come he doesn't mention France in that map of Europe?

from wiki:
Quote:
France has the largest share of nuclear electricity in the world. The country is also among the world's biggest net exporters of electricity.
Is Amory anti-nuke, I don't recall? I'm guessing he is and did not want to mention how nuclear is helping to level the renewables in those countries.

-ERD50


For later....
EV is driving battery development already,
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Old 04-03-2015, 01:40 PM   #466
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Homeless population would love to plug in their heaters etc. found in the dumpster or otherwise liberated, in the wintertime. And could easily aircondition their cardboard box home in the summer with free electric.
Good point. We could see a whole flourishing curbside economy based on free electricity. For example, 240V/40A is enough to run cutting equipment that will make it far more efficient to acquire nearly-new auto body parts to order without need to steal a whole car.

I think the argument for increased reliability for electric cars vs IC powered ones was probably stronger 20 years ago. The IC engines (and powertrain as a whole) have gotten to be darn reliable, and very frequently go 150K miles without serious repair. It's the other stuff that tends to break on cars and eventually lead to their demise: ancillary equipment, suspension/steering components, body rust, etc--all things that an EV and an IC car will have in common.
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Old 04-03-2015, 01:50 PM   #467
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Not EV related, but perhaps small-scale solar, wind, etc. "could" be like cellphones, allowing countries without much infrastructure to have power and communications without the huge sunk cost of giant power plants and miles of cables.
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Old 04-03-2015, 04:05 PM   #468
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But back to the subject of Tesla cars specifically and more generally, EVs, it occurred to me that if I owned one, I would look into buying a small quiet (Honda makes a very quiet one) portable generator. When I planned a trip that would otherwise cause me "range anxiety", I would throw the generator into the trunk (if they have them.) and be on my way. If for some reason there were no charging stations at the time I needed one, I would stop at a gas station, fill up my Honda (generator) plug it into the EV and look for a nice squat and gobble for a leisurely meal while I charged the EV for another (what?) 20 miles or so. Don't know if this would actually work with today's EVs, but there is no reason it couldn't be done if the electrical "plumbing" were compatible. Anyone know if a small gen (maybe 1200 watts) can be used at 110 volts to charge todays EVs? Obviously, it wouldn't be fast, but if you could get 20 miles in an hour or hour and a half of charging, most likely you could survive the occasional "dead zone" of recharging stations until the whole country is wired for EVs (see point above - if enough EVs are built, someone will be willing to put in charging stations to fuel them - not the other way around.) Sorry, I said "end of rant" above. This time I really mean it. Of course, YMMV
For a 1200 watt generator, a Tesla only gets about 3 miles for an hour of charging (120V 12A supply):

Your Questions Answered | Tesla Motors


So that little generator would be humming for a long, long time - 3 hours just to get 10 miles out from your 'stuck' zone.

-ERD50
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Old 04-03-2015, 04:17 PM   #469
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Perhaps getting away from OP a bit, but to ERD50's point about adding infrastructure equaling circular logic. On a practical note, I recently had to go to a meeting on one of our main drags here in Paradise. I noticed that they had recently taken (or maybe added - I don't know which) an entire city-street lane for bicycles. It wasn't just a little strip as in some places, it was a whole lane. DW ran in to take care of business while I waited on the street with the car. In the 20+ minutes I waited, not a single bike whizzed by. Maybe it is true that "If you build it, they will come." but it may take a while until they find it and end up using it. I've always been old school when it comes to infrastructure. Show me the need and THEN I'll gladly contribute to building/purchasing/adding/etc. whatever is needed. Don't build it and hope folks will agree with you that it's a good idea and then will actually use it. End of rant, and oh yes, YMMV.
I drive that major highway (King St) three time a week between the hours of 5-6PM on the whole length of the bike lane. I can say in the 4 or 5 months its been operating I have seen less than 10 bikes on the bike lane ever. I will say that I've always considered Honolulu to be potentially a very bikeable city, due to weather and a relatively flat areas. However, I've know so many folks training for triathlons that have had accident with cars, that I would have certainly advocate bike lanes. But it clearly has been a waste of money.

On the other hand compared to the $10 billion that Honolulu will spend for the ugly, poorly conceived light rail system the bike lane is a bargain as token green gesture.
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Old 04-03-2015, 04:27 PM   #470
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For a 1200 watt generator, a Tesla only gets about 3 miles for an hour of charging (120V 12A supply):

Your Questions Answered | Tesla Motors


So that little generator would be humming for a long, long time - 3 hours just to get 10 miles out from your 'stuck' zone.

-ERD50
From the above data provided by Tesla (1 hr charging for 3 miles), I compute an energy consumption of 120V x 12A x 1hr = 1440Wh for 3 miles, or 480 Wh/mi. However, for highway cruising, the power should be lower, and I have seen numbers like 300 Wh/mi.

So, to sustain a speed of 60 mph continuously, we will need a generator of 20kW. Here's one that will do the job. It sits on a nice trailer to tow behind your Tesla. Vehicles take a lot more power to move than what most people, myself included, would imagine.

By the way, 20kW is only 27hp.

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Old 04-03-2015, 04:37 PM   #471
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Not EV related, but perhaps small-scale solar, wind, etc. "could" be like cellphones, allowing countries without much infrastructure to have power and communications without the huge sunk cost of giant power plants and miles of cables.
In India and Africa are actually using solar to power cellphone towers and at household scale to charge lights, charge small electronics etc ..

Also water purification (not really solar, but it uses the sun).

At night they use either nothing or generators. Supposedly that kind of setup works quite well. Obviously not for powering A/C, fridges and EVs .. that would require too much capital outlay I think.
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Old 04-03-2015, 04:46 PM   #472
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And here is a 20kW solar array, which will propel a Tesla for 60 miles after 1 hour of charging.

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Old 04-03-2015, 04:48 PM   #473
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Off tangent, but appropriate to curbside electric.

Homeless population would love to plug in their heaters etc. found in the dumpster or otherwise liberated, in the wintertime. And could easily aircondition their cardboard box home in the summer with free electric. Especially while ubplugging the Tesla's at the curb.
We have a bunch of electric charging poles in the public streets here in Amsterdam - it's not an issue.

The plugs are "intelligent" as in they negotiate a protocol with the charger that identifies the car and such. You also need a pass (like a credit card) to activate the thing.

If you unplug the whole thing shuts off.

Haven't read about or seen anything like fraud yet .. not even about vandalism (as one would expect to happen).

[Edit] nice pic:

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Old 04-03-2015, 05:16 PM   #474
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I think the argument for increased reliability for electric cars vs IC powered ones was probably stronger 20 years ago.
Yeah, new cars are built extremely well. Basically just an oil change, tire and lights check every year. Off you go ..

Also, in the breakdown of total cost of running a fairly new car (<5 years old) maintenance is around 5% typically. Biggest components are depreciation and fuel (together >70% typically).

For older cars it increases obviously, but that's kind of a moot point right now since there are no really old EV cars yet

Only real argument in the end will be cost (fuel, battery and engine costs). If the battery costs drop and energy density goes up, that will happen.

Especially energy density is an issue: gasoline is roughly 45 MJ/KG, Li-Ion sits around 0.7 MJ/KG, that's a big gulf. Even if you consider burning gas is only 20% efficient (vs. 90%+ electric).
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Old 04-03-2015, 05:31 PM   #475
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We have a bunch of electric charging poles in the public streets here in Amsterdam - it's not an issue.

The plugs are "intelligent" as in they negotiate a protocol with the charger that identifies the car and such. You also need a pass (like a credit card) to activate the thing.

If you unplug the whole thing shuts off.

Haven't read about or seen anything like fraud yet .. not even about vandalism (as one would expect to happen).

[Edit] nice pic:

Good bit of cultural differences between Amsterdam and say Denver or Indianapolis both with sizeable homeless populations.

I Do see the technical merit of pay per charge, geared to specific vehicle. There is always a way of tapping power off before the electronic controls.

In the US there have been instances of streetlight power feeds used by homeless. Neither is safe, crude but effective - yes.
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Old 04-03-2015, 05:35 PM   #476
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From the above data provided by Tesla (1 hr charging for 3 miles), I compute an energy consumption of 120V x 12A x 1hr = 1440Wh for 3 miles, or 480 Wh/mi. However, for highway cruising, the power should be lower, and I have seen numbers like 300 Wh/mi.

So, to sustain a speed of 60 mph continuously, we will need a generator of 20kW. Here's one that will do the job. It sits on a nice trailer to tow behind your Tesla. Vehicles take a lot more power to move than what most people, myself included, would imagine.

By the way, 20kW is only 27hp.

Better yet, Perpetual motion

A wind generator on top of the car recharging the batteries. The faster you go the faster the charge. Well maybe not, damned physics.
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Old 04-03-2015, 05:41 PM   #477
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This graph is nice (produced in 2012):

Current point for the US 2.5 - 3 $ per gallon and Tesla battery replacement is around $150 - $200 per kWh 2013 Model S Price Increase | Tesla Motors. The Gigafactory supposedly will push this down to $100 per kWh, just rumours though.

If you look at the price differential of the 40kWh and 85 kWh models prices are more in the 450$ range though.

So good thing for the gas engine that fuel prices plummeted


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Old 04-03-2015, 06:04 PM   #478
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The above chart applies to new vehicles. With depreciation of used vehicles, some EV's like the Nissan Leaf become very attractive.

If we did not already spend $13K for a home improvement project this year, I would be very tempted to get a used Leaf to make grocery runs. Thanks to Samclem who pointed this out, I checked and indeed found some Leaf's that went for around that money, and with so low mileage too because the Leaf has such a short range.

PS. Just checked again. Yep, there's one 2012 going for $14K asking, with a mere 12K miles.
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Old 04-03-2015, 06:22 PM   #479
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Especially energy density is an issue: gasoline is roughly 45 MJ/KG, Li-Ion sits around 0.7 MJ/KG, that's a big gulf. Even if you consider burning gas is only 20% efficient (vs. 90%+ electric).
It turns out gasoline is pretty close to an ideal source of energy as far as density goes.

I read an article (can't find it, sorry...) that mentioned some military research. DARPA was looking at producing jet fuel from CO2 and Water. It could work with a sufficiently cheap energy source (who might have an idle nuclear reactor located on a vessel that needs jet fuel). Anyway, the article notes that for transportation like cars and airplanes (trains are different obviously) you might want to manufacture liquid fuels for transportation. Ultimately it's a closed loop system.

If only we had power too cheap to meter...
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Old 04-03-2015, 09:29 PM   #480
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This graph is nice (produced in 2012):

Current point for the US 2.5 - 3 $ per gallon and Tesla battery replacement is around $150 - $200 per kWh 2013 Model S Price Increase | Tesla Motors. The Gigafactory supposedly will push this down to $100 per kWh, just rumours though.

If you look at the price differential of the 40kWh and 85 kWh models prices are more in the 450$ range though.

So good thing for the gas engine that fuel prices plummeted


Thank you.

I find it interesting how the conversation changes when the facts that have been presented can't seem to be addressed. So then it's time to change the conversation from the environment to 'cost'. So first, EVs are the answer to all the environmental issues; but ooops, no, well - when the grid is greener; no, oopps - they require less maintenance; no ooops - they will cost less...

So your chart from 2011 bases watt hours per mile on some future anticipated 240 value. Yet, here we are in 2015, and actual watts per mile reported by Nissan Leaf owners (certainly a more conservative power user than the super performance Tesla) is 305.

Real-World Nissan LEAF Fleet Data Reveals...

I can't tell from that article, but I think this is the typically reported watt-hours/mile consumed from the battery - this neglects the charge losses (5%-10%? takes the 305 watt-hours per mile to ~ 325... ), and idle losses (~ 1 kWh per day for a Tesla? ) - so an imaginary 35%+ advantage to EVs from the start?

As far as Tesla offering replacements in the range of $150-200/kWh - but only after the 8th year, so this is a future price. But that appears to be discounted for 'brand loyalty'? I think the $450/kWh purchase differential is more relevant. But that still makes the replacement cost $8K-$12K, not a typical repair cost for an ICE vehicle, yet probably inevitable for an EV.

Do you have a link for the graphic, rather hard to comment w/o a better understanding of the underlying assumptions (and the fine print ones are already questionable)?

-ERD50
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