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Old 05-27-2015, 03:02 PM   #581
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Last night DD shared that her Tesla recently received the software update but because it hasn't been approved (by CA DMV?) it awaits implementation.
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Old 05-27-2015, 03:10 PM   #582
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
The other problem is that solar is generating when people are not normally charging... so that cannot be factored in the greening of the grid by EVs... not now, not later....
This comment really makes no sense. Solar and Wind can both add electricity to the grid during the day and in places with high peak rates during the day you get paid a larger amount (credit) than when you use the grid in the evenings (off-peak).

And what is more and more common is that solar and wind put this into batteries to be used during peak times. Solar-city and other companies do these installs for businesses. Utilities like lowering their peak demands.

Also there are a lot of examples of people charging during the day at work. Depending on where you are and how far you travel even 120v outlets (level 1) let you recoup a lot of your electricity if you are at work 8-9 hours a day.

This is also true/necessarily for some set of commuters that cannot charge at their residence (apartments) but can charge at work.

Heck there are many places in the northern states that have 120v outlets all over in the parking lots already ... why?!? block heaters.
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Old 05-27-2015, 03:55 PM   #583
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
The other problem is that solar is generating when people are not normally charging... so that cannot be factored in the greening of the grid by EVs... not now, not later....
This comment really makes no sense. Solar and Wind can both add electricity to the grid during the day and in places with high peak rates during the day you get paid a larger amount (credit) than when you use the grid in the evenings (off-peak).
Please help me make sense of your reply then.
Solar and Wind can both add electricity to the grid during the day...

OK, I follow you so far (though wind typically is higher at night, but yes, it can/does supply power at daytime also).
... and in places with high peak rates during the day you get paid a larger amount (credit) than when you use the grid in the evenings (off-peak).

Now you lost me. Texas Proud was talking about charging the EV during the day. The EV owner has to pay those peak rates for charging. Where does the credit come in? Why are you talking about using the grid in the evening, if he was talking about charging an EV at night? Lost me.


Quote:
And what is more and more common is that solar and wind put this into batteries to be used during peak times. Solar-city and other companies do these installs for businesses. Utilities like lowering their peak demands.
It might be 'more and more common' (because it is exceedingly uncommon now?), but is it going to make sense on a large scale? I don't see the numbers working, I think some companies are testing things out, likely a combination of subsidies and green "PR".


Quote:
Also there are a lot of examples of people charging during the day at work. Depending on where you are and how far you travel even 120v outlets (level 1) let you recoup a lot of your electricity if you are at work 8-9 hours a day.

This is also true/necessarily for some set of commuters that cannot charge at their residence (apartments) but can charge at work.

Heck there are many places in the northern states that have 120v outlets all over in the parking lots already ... why?!? block heaters.
Again, if we are going to talk wide-scale adoption, we need to talk about what is available across most of the country. Northern IL might as well be the North Pole to anyone from the south, we have pretty tough, long winters. No block heater outlets in parking lots here, never saw one anywhere in IL. You'll find them in Minnesota I think, and in some very low populated areas - so the absolute numbers of EVs there won't be high (even the relative numbers probably won't be high - sparse population usually means long drives...).

'A lot of examples' doesn't mean anything big picture-wise, that's a self selected cross-section (people who can charge at work will be more likely to buy an EV). Again (and again, and again), what matters is can EVs match enough of the population so any benefits can be large enough to make an actual dent in anything? And that's IF they are a benefit at all (I'm feeling stronger and stronger that they are an environmental negative). They have to 'work' for a lot of people, like enough to cover 1/3 of miles driven?

Heck, if I invented a car that ran for a hundred years on Unicorn dandruff with absolutely no environmental impact, but only had enough Unicorn dandruff to power a single car, it would make no difference. You have to think mainstream adoption, or it is just 'happy talk'.

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Old 05-27-2015, 10:52 PM   #584
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You crack me up with your ridiculous near-sighted and narrow minded comments. You have such a limited amount of knowledge about this and related topics that "you don't know what you don't know" as they say.

There are numerous sources and interviews with Tesla's leadership which state their goal is to get the major manufacturers to increase transportation use of non-fossil fuels.

That is happening. Compare the variety and manufacturers BEVs and PHEVs that are being produced or planned in the next couple of years. It has changed dramatically in the past 3 years.


Your perspective is only that something has to go from 0% to 90-100% immediately otherwise it is a failure. You can't even think that change can happen gradually as people accept it *and* as technology evolves and gets more affordable (via competition, scale in purchase power, focus on technical advances, etc).

Why are you even talking about this on a retirement board/forum? Try explaining your view on the related technical boards and let me know how that goes. I certainly don't have time for you go to to school on my dime when there are various more specific forums for this.
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Old 05-28-2015, 12:13 AM   #585
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Originally Posted by eroscott View Post
You crack me up with your ridiculous near-sighted and narrow minded comments. You have such a limited amount of knowledge about this and related topics that "you don't know what you don't know" as they say.

There are numerous sources and interviews with Tesla's leadership which state their goal is to get the major manufacturers to increase transportation use of non-fossil fuels.

That is happening. Compare the variety and manufacturers BEVs and PHEVs that are being produced or planned in the next couple of years. It has changed dramatically in the past 3 years.


Your perspective is only that something has to go from 0% to 90-100% immediately otherwise it is a failure. You can't even think that change can happen gradually as people accept it *and* as technology evolves and gets more affordable (via competition, scale in purchase power, focus on technical advances, etc).

Why are you even talking about this on a retirement board/forum? Try explaining your view on the related technical boards and let me know how that goes. I certainly don't have time for you go to to school on my dime when there are various more specific forums for this.

Getting a little testy are we

ERD50 has always stated his opinion and has back it up with (IMO) sound logic... people on the other side (which I guess includes you) do not...


Right now all non ICE vehicle sales are so small that it really does not make that much difference in the demand for fossil fuels... the better gas mileage that has been made to ICE vehicles has made a difference...


I do not see a major change to going all EV... it might happen if there is some major breakthrough, but from all that I read people say there is a limit to the amount of energy that can be stored even if you were 100% efficient....

Sure, if oil goes up to $300 or more per barrel, then maybe an EV makes sense.... right now I just do not see the benefits.... and the vast majority of car buyers agree with me...


BTW, ERD50 always says that a hybrid with ICE seems to be the better way to go.... again, I have not seen anybody make any good argument to refute this statement.... but again, car buyers seem to reject this option also....
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Old 05-28-2015, 08:26 AM   #586
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You crack me up with your ridiculous near-sighted and narrow minded comments. You have such a limited amount of knowledge about this and related topics that "you don't know what you don't know" as they say. ....
Well, your post pretty well covers it. Since you didn't (can't?) actually address my assertions, you just attack me w/o any back up of your own. Do you really think that is going to influence people (well it might, but probably not in the direction you hoped)?


You know, I started out thinking that this 'EVs charging mostly on marginal dirty power' concept just can't be right, and I waited ~ a month before I posted again on it. But the more I read and think about it and post, and the lack of thoughtful rebuttal now has me very confident that it is correct (and will be for a very long time).

Oh well, despite my knowing better (I'm weak), I'll address your comments:

Quote:
.. There are numerous sources and interviews with Tesla's leadership which state their goal is to get the major manufacturers to increase transportation use of non-fossil fuels.

That is happening. Compare the variety and manufacturers BEVs and PHEVs that are being produced or planned in the next couple of years. It has changed dramatically in the past 3 years.
I never said people were not producing or did not have plans to produce EVs. In what way does Tesla's goals refute my point that EVs are charging on mostly dirty marginal power? Hah - Exon Mobile's goal is for us to keep using oil, and Peabody's is for us to keep using coal - so?

Again, you don't seem to be able to refute the point, so you change the topic. It's not as clever as you might think, people see right through it. It only serves to make my point stronger. Thank you!


Quote:
Your perspective is only that something has to go from 0% to 90-100% immediately otherwise it is a failure. You can't even think that change can happen gradually as people accept it *and* as technology evolves and gets more affordable (via competition, scale in purchase power, focus on technical advances, etc).
I fail to see how you can get there from what I posted. Gross misrepresentation IMO, but readers can determine that for themselves.

Quote:
Why are you even talking about this on a retirement board/forum? Try explaining your view on the related technical boards and let me know how that goes. I certainly don't have time for you go to to school on my dime when there are various more specific forums for this.
Ask the OP.

Can you suggest a technical board (not a fan site) for this? Sounds like fun. But I also like taking the info to another cross-section of people who are bombarded by the misinformation out there, like "Zero Pollution", etc.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
...

BTW, ERD50 always says that a hybrid with ICE seems to be the better way to go.... again, I have not seen anybody make any good argument to refute this statement.... but again, car buyers seem to reject this option also....
Thanks for the back up Texas Proud.

I don't know that I'd say buyers are 'rejecting' hybrids. They seem to be getting more and more popular, and more and more models are offered. I think a few things come into play against them not being even more popular though (not in order of importance):

1) People like me don't drive enough miles to make it sound $-wise.

2) Some people who maybe should do it for the economics, just won't (or can't?) pay the upfront cost (short sighted as it may be).

3) In general, I think you give up some passenger/cargo space for the batteries - that's a big deal to some.

4) Maybe a little fear yet (mostly unjustified at this point it seems) of the added complexity, battery replacement costs, etc?

5) Some questions remain regarding the total environmental pro/con factoring in the battery pack production and recycling.

These issues will fade/improve with time I think, especially if gas goes back up to $4, $5 or more.

But as batteries improve, hybrids take advantage of that. They use a lot less of them than a full EV, don't have the range or 'find a socket' issues, so yes, from an environmental standpoint, I do think they are the realistic option for the future. And the data backs that up.

Maybe something even better will come along, that we haven't even seen yet (no, not the 'air car', or the 'hydrogen car')?

-ERD50
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Old 05-28-2015, 09:43 AM   #587
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No worries guys. After following BEV and PHEVs for several years (insideevs.com covers a variety), I've seen many that get it and many that don't.

Plugin Hybrid Elect Vehicles (PHEVs) are the most straightforward transition. They can charge overnight on a normal 120v garage plug. People don't think twice about plugging in their phones, tablets, and even watches (Apple/fitbits) everyday. It's trivial. Generally it is 5 to 6 times cheaper to run on electricity than gas. Get on an hourly rate plan, if avail, and charge really cheap in the middle of the night 1-5am as an example.

If you get a Chevrolet Volt that has the unique distinction of always running on the battery until it runs out *then* switching to gas and you are in the ~70% that drives less than 40 miles per day -- you can mainly drive on electricity. (2016 GenII has a 50 mile battery) Other PHEV start the ICE as soon as you hit a certain speed or accelerate "too hard". Additional benefits are the ICE infrequently runs so you only have to change your oil every 2 years (age). It will start up every 6 weeks for a few minutes for diagnostics and remove condensation, etc, etc. My son bought a 1 owner leased one for $20k.

I've gotten 1 oil change in 3.5 years. With regen I have never replaced brakes and they look 90% new (inspect them when getting tires rotated). Very low maint cost.

I drive ~72% on electricity so out of 55K miles ~28% of the miles on on the ICE (~15K in 3.5 yrs!). How long before I replace sparkplugs, etc. Long time!


Ignoring the cost as well and you get a smooth, powerful, and very surreal quite drive. Driving with one pedal is very relaxing and simple. Let up on accelerator and regen brakes slow you down for traffic, turns, exiting freeways, etc, etc. Until you try it you will not believe that it can have other benefits.

Myths And Facts About Electric Cars
http://mediamatters.org/research/201...ic-cars/185798

Note: Round trip number of 40

Note One way trip number of 20

Published by the U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, the Omnibus Household Survey, or OmniStats data, were based on a household survey of 1000 randomly selected households asked about their driving habits in the previous one month (done in 2003).

PHEVs are also a nice step as you can easily take road trips. I've taken many. You can easily get 40 MPG driving 65 MPH. Better than most cars.
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Old 05-28-2015, 10:13 AM   #588
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I don't find the sales figures impressive. The figures don't seem to jive with the cited 2012 Huff po's article qouting an assertion that Chevy volt production can not keep up with demand.
"GM executives said on the company's conference call that Volt sales have been constrained not by lack of demand, but by lack of supply.
Volt sales had slowed to a trickle during the summer months as GM temporarily shut down the Detroit factory where the car is built. The month-long shut-down allowed GM to revamp the factory in order to boost the car's production volume. [CNNMoney, 12/1/11]"
Facts and figures from:Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard



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Old 05-28-2015, 10:14 AM   #589
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Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are the most straightforward transition. They can charge overnight on a normal 120v garage plug. People don't think twice about plugging in their phones, tablets, and even watches (Apple/fitbits) everyday. It's trivial.
Sure plugging in a car isn't too much trouble when one lives in California (or other mild climate areas), or even in more challenging climates (read snow and ice) if one has a nice garage, but there are lots of people who don't fit this profile.

I just can't figure out the use case where someone parks outside in the snow and has to us a long extension cord to plug in their car. Likewise, folks who park on the street don't seem to have a workable plugin strategy.

So we're back to hybrids, which are simply high efficiency fossil fuel cars, for these folks.
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Old 05-28-2015, 11:18 AM   #590
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Prius started out with slow sales...


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I don't find the sales figures impressive. The figures don't seem to jive with the cited 2012 Huff po's article qouting an assertion that Chevy volt production can not keep up with demand.
The 2nd generation of the Volt is coming out this year and they listened to 1st generation customers in making changes. I thought the drivetrain was incredibly impressive but they built on what they learned and redesigned it with a new ICE, larger battery, and various small things.

Chevy Volt again tops Consumer Reports Owner-Satisfaction Survey
Quote:
The Chevrolet Volt has done the double, nearly replicating its triumph from last year: For its annual Owner Satisfaction Survey, the Consumer Reports National Research Center asked Consumer Reports readers, "Considering all factors (price, performance, reliability, comfort, enjoyment, etc.), would you get this car if you had it to do all over again?" Ninety-two percent of Volt owners answered "Definitely yes," topping nearly 250 other models for which responses were received.

The only difference between this year and last is that in 2011, the Volt won the title thanks to 93 percent of its owners.
Probably not a car for this type of forum tho. Clearly a lot of prius or old beaters types here just looking to go from point A to point B cheaply regardless of the nice, fun, etc factors.

No big deal, I get it. I'm FIREd but I still like to enjoy life and fruits of my labor. Don't need to be the richest person in the graveyard

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Sure plugging in a car isn't too much trouble when one lives in California (or other mild climate areas), or even in more challenging climates (read snow and ice) if one has a nice garage, but there are lots of people who don't fit this profile.

I just can't figure out the use case where someone parks outside in the snow and has to us a long extension cord to plug in their car. Likewise, folks who park on the street don't seem to have a workable plugin strategy.

So we're back to hybrids, which are simply high efficiency fossil fuel cars, for these folks.
Completely a valid point and I get it. Some of these folks will be able to charge at work now or in the future. The electric car industry totally understands this.
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Old 05-28-2015, 11:39 AM   #591
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No worries guys. After following BEV and PHEVs for several years (insideevs.com covers a variety), I've seen many that get it and many that don't.
"Get it" = "drink the Kool-Aid"? Maybe "Agree with it" is the fairest way to put things.

My new favorite: This or that policy/idea is "on the right side of history"--as though 1) history is pre-determined, not being made all the time and 2) I and my friends know what the "right" side is.

Back to the reasoned discussion. Facts are great.
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Old 05-28-2015, 11:43 AM   #592
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I wouldn't have guessed the Volt had such high satisfaction ratings.

Might bode well for the Bolt.
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Old 05-28-2015, 01:55 PM   #593
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Just going from memory... but are there not over 1 mill vehicles sold every month That means plug in electrics are less than 1%....


As I said, the car buyer has voted and plug in is losing....


Also, I would think that sales in Europe would be much better than here since driving miles are less and gas is more expensive.... show me how they are doing compared to ICE vehicles over there.... maybe they are catching on when the economics make more sense....
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Old 05-28-2015, 02:00 PM   #594
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It's very much a function of price. Cheapest EVs are well into the mid $20ks.

I don't know what the average or median price of cars are now but EVs and even hybrids are probably well above avg. and median, because of battery costs.

In Europe, I hear Tesla's do well in Norway for instance. An oil-exporting affluent nation of all things.

There are little EV car share services in Paris and Amsterdam. But in big cities, car ownership is mostly for the wealthy.
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Old 05-28-2015, 02:34 PM   #595
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Just going from memory... but are there not over 1 mill vehicles sold every month That means plug in electrics are less than 1%....

As I said, the car buyer has voted and plug in is losing....
So you said the same thing when hybrids first started too then Hard to drive anyway without seeing a Prius these days ... of course they are putt'n around so they are easy to see because they are moving so gingerly.

But really 3 years ago there was really 1 PHEV ... since then all manufacturers have stepped up and are producing them and have plans to produce more. Similar for BEVs.
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Old 05-28-2015, 05:09 PM   #596
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No worries guys. After following BEV and PHEVs for several years (insideevs.com covers a variety), I've seen many that get it and many that don't.

Plugin Hybrid Elect Vehicles (PHEVs) are the most straightforward transition. ....

If you get a Chevrolet Volt that has the unique distinction of always running on the battery until it runs out *then* switching to gas ....
Chevy Volt - serial hybrid - isn't that what I've been talking about (after you told me I don't know what I'm talking about!)? Although I'm not sure the 'plug-in' aspect makes environmental sense. Which brings us back to...

You STILL have not addressed the issue I brought up - EVs, even on a very 'green' grid charge on the marginal non-renewable supply, and will into the future.

You sure cover a lot of other ground, but haven't even touched on how my analysis can be wrong, other than to just declare it. Again, if this is wrong - show me. Not sales, goals, opinions, etc - real analysis. Kilowatt hours, stuff like that.



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I wouldn't have guessed the Volt had such high satisfaction ratings.

Might bode well for the Bolt.
Kind of a guess, but there is a factor I've read about that people show highest satisfaction for the brands they drive over others. Makes sense, it was their choice. I bet this goes triple for new tech, the early adopters are enamored with this stuff, so I can understand their satisfaction being high. Not to say it wouldn't be otherwise, but might account for unusually high numbers.

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...

Back to the reasoned discussion. Facts are great.
Yep, I'd like to see some from those claiming others are wrong. Should be easy.

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Old 05-28-2015, 08:48 PM   #597
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[...]
You STILL have not addressed the issue I brought up - EVs, even on a very 'green' grid charge on the marginal non-renewable supply, and will into the future.
[...]
-ERD50
I'll preface this with the statement that I appreciate your approach - too many people use overly-simplistic analysis when looking at this type of issue.(e.g., "Electric cars generate no pollution, since they don't have an exhaust pipe")

However, I think your choice of allocating EV usage purely to the dirtiest part of the grid also introduces an unfair bias.

The same argument could be used to make a point against any incremental energy use - for example through increases in population. One could make the argument that children are "dirtier" energy users than adults because they came later, and therefore are incremental consumers of energy and are, by your logic, consuming the dirtier energy.

The reality is probably much more complicated than that.

You treat renewable energy as a fixed quantity. Your hypothesis is that renewable energy is limited strictly by production capacity.

I believe that the quantity of renewable energy is not capacity-limited, but rather cost/price-limited.

Even with artificial cost biases (subsidies), the cost of renewable energy is still high - so high that in many cases it doesn't make financial sense to use renewable electricity, so demand for renewable energy isn't that high.

However, if overall demand for electricity increases, the price of electricity will go up, which will in turn encourage investment in energy production, a certain percentage of which will come from renewable energy.

Therefore, it is not fair to say 100% of ev usage comes from dirty energy, even just considering marginal energy production (since any capacity increases will come from a mix of sources).

You earlier "pooh-poohed" the notion of taking an average of all sources and allocating it to EV users, but I have to say that to me that's a more sensible metric than arbitrarily picking the dirtiest source.

I'd be interested in the source data for your chart so that I could do an analysis using different allocations of energy.
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Old 05-28-2015, 09:21 PM   #598
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So you said the same thing when hybrids first started too then Hard to drive anyway without seeing a Prius these days ... of course they are putt'n around so they are easy to see because they are moving so gingerly.

But really 3 years ago there was really 1 PHEV ... since then all manufacturers have stepped up and are producing them and have plans to produce more. Similar for BEVs.
You need to look at my name.... I live in TRUCK country.... we do not see very many Prius.... at least half of the vehicles on the road is a truck or SUV...

I have seen two Tesla's in my life... one in Oregon and one here.... I have seen one Volt... I have seen zero Leafs.....


So, I still stand by my stmt.... the market is speaking very loudly that for the near future electric cars will be a bit player... I would say that even in 10 years electrics will still be a bit player.... (less than 5% of vehicles sold)....
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Old 05-28-2015, 10:19 PM   #599
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So you said the same thing when hybrids first started too then Hard to drive anyway without seeing a Prius these days ... of course they are putt'n around so they are easy to see because they are moving so gingerly.
I'm sorry, but I have to post this:

I was in Odessa, Texas (West Texas) yesterday and when renting a car, the folks had a 2014 Prius and a few other micro cars, so I took the Prius as I had never driven one and we have so few of them around, I looked at it as a learning experience for me. And that it was.

Now I don't mean to offend any Prius owners here, and I know there are plenty, but this thing is kind of freaky to drive. (bear in mind I drive a 2014 VW Passat TDI (turbocharged diesel) mid-sized 4 door sedan.

You don't' just jump in and go with this car, you have to wait until it tells you it's READY. Maybe I had it in automatic mode, and there was no owner's manual for me to figure all this out. OK, moving in whatever gear it's in feels very front end heavy and it was kind of driving me at slow speeds, at least that was the feeling.

Once I left the airport, I had to jump onto I-20 and that was terrifying! This car has no get up and go. I darn near got run over by a semi going 75. I sure missed the diesel torque from my VW, which, by the way, averages 45 MPG @ 75 MPH with the A/C on, without batteries.

All day driving this car, I felt somewhat underwhelmed and a bit cautious at interchanges and when having to move quick, which it doesn't do very well.

Another thing that was strange is the instrument cluster, the long, skinny display of LCDs, was 3.5 feet away from my head and I had trouble reading the instruments, especially in the sunlight. Toyota has had 10 years to think about that and I am certainly not the first person to say it's a problem.

I was impressed with the braking as it got down to a slow speed pretty quick. That was important since in West Texas, every vehicle seems to be goinga least 75 MPH (the speed limit on most roads). At 75, the Prius was quite noisy, which surprised me as it was pretty quiet at lower speeds.

The rear window visibility is not sufficient with the hatch line right smack in the middle of the narrow field of view. That must be dangerous at night. I put about 150 miles on the car and it had 21,000 on the Odometer. Refuel indicated I was getting over 40 MPG, but I don't know how full the tank was when I picked it up.

Now these little cars may be good for grocery jaunts and runs around town, but I would not buy one for long distance runs on high speed roads. No wonder we don't see very many of these or the Leaf, Volt, etc. in our little town of 4 million (Houston).
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Old 05-28-2015, 10:44 PM   #600
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I've driven Lexus hybrids, which should be similar to the Prius since it's Toyota for both.

Pretty seamless to me. Only tricky thing is when you start it up by pushing the button, you don't get the sound and vibration feedback of the engine running so I'm not sure if it's started.

There is like a little animated display showing that the battery is charging and a meter in place of the RPM meter which shows when you're green, running on electric, versus when the gas engine has kicked in.

I think the Prius basically has a wimpy gas engine but the torque in the motor should get you going up to 30-40 MPH fairly briskly. I thought the 0-60 times were in the Camry 4cylinder range.

The other thing I didn't really like was the rear camera, just can't get out of looking back over my shoulder rather than look at the monitor.
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