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Old 05-28-2015, 10:49 PM   #601
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Interesting that hybrid and ev vehicles aren't seen much in Texas. Here in San Diego they make up a significant part of the landscape. I saw three teslas today... I know two people who have leafs - and too many friends to count have priuses. Volts are a little less common - but I see them fairly frequently.

But this is SoCal...I also saw a Maserati this morning on my way back from my beach walk.
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Old 05-28-2015, 11:08 PM   #602
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Interesting that hybrid and ev vehicles aren't seen much in Texas. Here in San Diego they make up a significant part of the landscape. I saw three teslas today... I know two people who have leafs - and too many friends to count have priuses. Volts are a little less common - but I see them fairly frequently.

But this is SoCal...I also saw a Maserati this morning on my way back from my beach walk.
Having lived in SoCal ans now Texas...two totally different automobile cultures. Texas is truck country and big, open roads. In our upscale,.... The Woodlands community, there are lots of oil people and they either drive high end trucks, MBZs, BMWs, Ferrari's, Audie's etc., I have a friend who just put a new Ferrari on order and his wife drives an Audi A8.

I have never seen a Tesla in person. I don't know anybody that drives a Prius.

SoCal and north of there is, more associated with "green" things, and that's OK by me. So a household could have a MBZ or a couple of BMWs, but it may also have a Prius.
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Old 05-28-2015, 11:36 PM   #603
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Yeah F-150 is the best selling car in the US?

There are pickup trucks out here but not like there used to be.

You rarely see people drive trucks just as passenger vehicles. People who have trucks buy them because they need to carry stuff. I think people now buy SUVs if they don't want a regular passenger sedan.

Also, you wouldn't expect any EVs or hybrids in oil company parking lots? After all, it's better for business if vehicles consume more gas, not less?
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Old 05-29-2015, 08:30 AM   #604
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However, I think your choice of allocating EV usage purely to the dirtiest part of the grid also introduces an unfair bias.

The same argument could be used to make a point against any incremental energy use - for example through increases in population. One could make the argument that children are "dirtier" energy users than adults because they came later, and therefore are incremental consumers of energy and are, by your logic, consuming the dirtier energy.

The reality is probably much more complicated than that. ...
Thanks, a reasoned response - finally! And I agree with your assessment, but not your conclusion.

Yes, any added demand on the grid is going to come mainly from the 'dirty' portion. Like I said earlier:
Take a grid with 30% renewable. The renewable energy is all being used, there isn't any excess. So if I add demand, and I've already used all the renewable power, where does it come from? The only place it can come from - the non-renewable portion. How can it be otherwise?
Mathematically: 30% = 30/100. Increased demand (EV or any demand) by 10%, and the 30 is still 30, but you now have 30/110 ~ 27% renewable grid.

Quote:
You treat renewable energy as a fixed quantity. Your hypothesis is that renewable energy is limited strictly by production capacity. ...
Because it is. There are only so many solar panels and wind turbines installed on any specific grid. Unless they are producing an excess which can't be used other ways, and can be directed to EVs, (I've addressed the problems with this in post #573), then that's it.

Sure, they can add renewables as time goes on, but it's the same story. Get to 40% renewables that are all utilized, plug in 1000 EVs and the added demand has to come from the non-renewable supply. Add 10% draw, and 40/100 becomes 40/110 ~ 36%.



HEY!!!! - Time for some POSITIVE news!!!!
While all this sounds so negative, I just realized there is a flip side that is very, very positive! Since marginal added draw is mostly from the 'dirty' supply, that also means that conservation is cutting mostly from that dirty supply as well! Conserving energy is a real win-win-win!

So if you conserve, I think you can 'brag' that you cleaned up the grid, and you don't have to base your conservation numbers on 'averages'! Works both ways, right?


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.. You earlier "pooh-poohed" the notion of taking an average of all sources and allocating it to EV users, but I have to say that to me that's a more sensible metric than arbitrarily picking the dirtiest source. ...
It wasn't arbitrary. I gave the reasons, and I do think they are sound. Why do you say arbitrary? While I may have said ' the dirtiest source' as shorthand, a more accurate mouthful would be to say 'the non-renewable portion of the grid'. Which is probably some blend of coal, NG, etc. But not all that non-renewable power would come from the dirtiest of the dirty (if that is what you thought I was saying) - it would be a blend of the 'dirty'.


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I'd be interested in the source data for your chart so that I could do an analysis using different allocations of energy.
Which chart?

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Old 05-29-2015, 08:55 AM   #605
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You don't' just jump in and go with this car, you have to wait until it tells you it's READY. Maybe I had it in automatic mode, and there was no owner's manual for me to figure all this out. OK, moving in whatever gear it's in feels very front end heavy and it was kind of driving me at slow speeds, at least that was the feeling.

Once I left the airport, I had to jump onto I-20 and that was terrifying! This car has no get up and go. I darn near got run over by a semi going 75. I sure missed the diesel torque from my VW, which, by the way, averages 45 MPG @ 75 MPH with the A/C on, without batteries.

All day driving this car, I felt somewhat underwhelmed and a bit cautious at interchanges and when having to move quick, which it doesn't do very well.

Another thing that was strange is the instrument cluster, the long, skinny display of LCDs, was 3.5 feet away from my head and I had trouble reading the instruments, especially in the sunlight. Toyota has had 10 years to think about that and I am certainly not the first person to say it's a problem.

I was impressed with the braking as it got down to a slow speed pretty quick. That was important since in West Texas, every vehicle seems to be goinga least 75 MPH (the speed limit on most roads). At 75, the Prius was quite noisy, which surprised me as it was pretty quiet at lower speeds.

The rear window visibility is not sufficient with the hatch line right smack in the middle of the narrow field of view. That must be dangerous at night. I put about 150 miles on the car and it had 21,000 on the Odometer. Refuel indicated I was getting over 40 MPG, but I don't know how full the tank was when I picked it up.

Now these little cars may be good for grocery jaunts and runs around town, but I would not buy one for long distance runs on high speed roads. No wonder we don't see very many of these or the Leaf, Volt, etc. in our little town of 4 million (Houston).
Wow, none of this, except the noisy at higher speeds, and challenging rear visibility, reflects my experience. Granted, a Prius will never win a drag race, but I can get up to freeway speeds plenty fast enough. I've driven mine at 75-85 mph all day on several trips; handles well, and a little volume on the stereo fixes that road noise problem.

I've never gotten below 50 mpg. And, really, the car is "ready" about as fast as starting an ICE-only engine, and giving the oil a few seconds to start circulating. And I've had no problems reading the dash display.

Lots of Prii (and some though fewer Volts and Leaves) here in Stepfordville, though still outnumbered by pickups...
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Old 05-29-2015, 08:59 AM   #606
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Just going from memory... but are there not over 1 mill vehicles sold every month That means plug in electrics are less than 1%....


As I said, the car buyer has voted and plug in is losing....
To judge fairly, it's the growth rate that matters. And that growth rate is between 30% and 200% per year in most countries. On a worldwide level it seems to double every 2 - 3 years currently. Obviously not sustainable to keep growing that fast, yet hardly what anyone would call "losing".

Have 740,000 plug-in cars been sold worldwide?


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Also, I would think that sales in Europe would be much better than here since driving miles are less and gas is more expensive.... show me how they are doing compared to ICE vehicles over there.... maybe they are catching on when the economics make more sense....
See link above, USA buys a big chunk, even on a per capita basis. Gas prices do make a difference, other taxes and government incentives even more so though. Especially Norway and The Netherlands went a bit crazy with tax breaks and such for a while.

The biggest driver it seems in adoption is whether a country (or region) is affluent. Plug-in EVs & hybrids have a higher capital cost.
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:14 AM   #607
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Interesting that hybrid and ev vehicles aren't seen much in Texas. Here in San Diego they make up a significant part of the landscape. I saw three teslas today... I know two people who have leafs - and too many friends to count have priuses. Volts are a little less common - but I see them fairly frequently.

But this is SoCal...I also saw a Maserati this morning on my way back from my beach walk.

Probably true up and down the west coast, especially in the major metro areas. When our kids were younger, we used to play slug bug no slug backs. Every time we'd see a VW Bug, you'd slug somebody. We now do this when we see Teslas.

I'm in the PNW and there are many Teslas, along with Priuses, Volts and Leafs. Our electricity also comes from hydro, so I suspect EVs would be considered "cleaner" here, but that's just a guess on my part.

And yes, we even get some of those high end cars, which my son likes to point out (I'm somewhat oblivious to cars). It's one of the side effects of living in a prosperous area, along with high COL.
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:46 AM   #608
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Wow, none of this, except the noisy at higher speeds, and challenging rear visibility, reflects my experience. Granted, a Prius will never win a drag race, but I can get up to freeway speeds plenty fast enough. I've driven mine at 75-85 mph all day on several trips; handles well, and a little volume on the stereo fixes that road noise problem.

I've never gotten below 50 mpg. And, really, the car is "ready" about as fast as starting an ICE-only engine, and giving the oil a few seconds to start circulating. And I've had no problems reading the dash display.

Lots of Prii (and some though fewer Volts and Leaves) here in Stepfordville, though still outnumbered by pickups...

Hey, just my first time impressions, and I drive a much more conventional (although TDI powered) car, which is not as tinney feeling to me as the Prius.

When I picked up the Prius, I asked the Avis rep why is that car was in Midland as I have never seen one for rent in West Texas. She stated it was a drop off from out of state and they don't ever have of these available in Midland as part of their fleet. Wonder why?

These cars have their place, and Toyota should be complimented on their technology achievements. There is, however, a long list, going back into the early 80's, of both U.S. and foreign small cars that have easily achieved over 40 MPG with no batteries. So fuel mileage is not something to brag about. I have gotten 50 MPG with my full size diesel on a trip staying under 70 MPH.

One poster here, Gumby, recently replaced the big battery in his Prius for $2400, pretty much wiping out the years of cost savings from increased MPG that he feels he achieved. So there is a potential downside to a vehicle with consumable batteries that you pay "up" for in the initial purchase. Just mentioning this and not wanting to start a "back and forth" about cost savings, etc.
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Old 05-29-2015, 09:55 AM   #609
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I'm in the PNW ... Our electricity also comes from hydro, so I suspect EVs would be considered "cleaner" here, but that's just a guess on my part. ...
According to this source (not an easy format to copy/paste):

Oregon Department of Energy Oregon's Power Mix

Yes, a lot of hydro, 44.7%. But fossil fuel exceeds it (slightly) with coal at ~ 33.4%, and NG ~ 11.8%. Then you get into single digit sources for the remaining ~ 10%, wind, nukes, on top, then sub 1% for the rest (solar, biomass, etc).

And this fits into my point - they have already maxed the renewables they have (they wouldn't just not use the energy if they could, would they?). So plug in a 1000 EVs, and where does that power come from? The power company must have to crank up the coal/NG plants, right?

They can't make the wind blow harder, they can't make the sun shine more, they can't get more water from the dam. But they can push more fossil fuel into a power plant, so that must be what they (their computers I assume) do.

No, I don't see how charging EVs in the PNW is significantly cleaner than anywhere else.

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Old 05-29-2015, 10:00 AM   #610
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To judge fairly, it's the growth rate that matters. And that growth rate is between 30% and 200% per year in most countries. On a worldwide level it seems to double every 2 - 3 years currently. Obviously not sustainable to keep growing that fast, yet hardly what anyone would call "losing".

Have 740,000 plug-in cars been sold worldwide?




See link above, USA buys a big chunk, even on a per capita basis. Gas prices do make a difference, other taxes and government incentives even more so though. Especially Norway and The Netherlands went a bit crazy with tax breaks and such for a while.

The biggest driver it seems in adoption is whether a country (or region) is affluent. Plug-in EVs & hybrids have a higher capital cost.

I do notice that of the 5 cars shown on the graph that 3 of them actually have an ICE engine in them.... which IMO are not electric.... they are hybrids.... and ERD50 has been saying that hybrids are the better option than pure electric....

I have also read a few other articles from the same site.... they keep mentioning how the gvmt incentives have made this growth happen... so we as taxpayers have spent billions on something that might not be the best solution (which is not new BTW)....

One article says by 2024 they might sell 1 million.... but I would assume total sales will also go up toward 20 mill total... so it still would only represent 5% of all sales.... I still say that the buyer is voting with their money and EVs are losing.... until sales go over 50% of total, they are losing....
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:08 AM   #611
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My primary reason for buying a Prius was my feeling that gasoline was headed to $5 or more. Got that one wrong...

Other reasons: most of my driving at present is short-trip city driving. Many cars get good mpg on the highway, but that drops significantly when driving in town. The Prius gets about the same both in town and on the highway, i.e. 50 or so.

Also, DFW spends most of the summer at pollution level orange. Since I get more than triple the gas mileage that my pickup got, I assume I'm generating about one-third the pollution.

And, lastly, it's a neat gadget!
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:10 AM   #612
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They can't make the wind blow harder, they can't make the sun shine more, they can't get more water from the dam. But they can push more fossil fuel into a power plant, so that must be what they (their computers I assume) do.
True on a spot price / daily basis.

However on a longer range (a few years) you also need to look at newly installed capacity.

https://portlandgreenenergy.wordpres...rms-in-oregon/

40% of new installed capacity is from wind power (granted, in 2012, couldn't find more recent numbers). The trend seems to continue though:
Wind power in Oregon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So there's that.
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:19 AM   #613
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I still say that the buyer is voting with their money and EVs are losing.... until sales go over 50% of total, they are losing....
It seems we have a different view on what constitutes losing

As long as any technology grows faster than its applicable market, I'd define it as winning.
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:20 AM   #614
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True on a spot price / daily basis.

However on a longer range (a few years) you also need to look at newly installed capacity.

https://portlandgreenenergy.wordpres...rms-in-oregon/

40% of new installed capacity is from wind power (granted, in 2012, couldn't find more recent numbers). The trend seems to continue though:
Wind power in Oregon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So there's that.
Yes, but seriously - what difference does it make (to the added demand from plugging in EVs)?

I've said it before - take the renewables up over time from 45% to 60%, just for example. You are still operating under the same scenario that the grid is using all the renewables it can (or the % number would be higher). So add demand, and the operators still need to crank up their fuel based power. Where else will the get it?

Things change when we start getting an excess of renewable power. But I covered that several times as well. The variability just won't make for a good match to EVs w/o the added cost (and losses, and safety concerns) of storage.

I wish there was a silver bullet out there, but wishing won't make it so. Well, the closest we have to a silver bullet is conservation, I think. A unit of energy not needed is a 100% savings all around (minus any implementation/productivity costs).

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Old 05-29-2015, 10:23 AM   #615
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Well, the closest we have to a silver bullet is conservation, I think. A unit of energy not needed is a 100% savings all around (minus any implementation/productivity costs).

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Old 05-29-2015, 10:38 AM   #616
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One poster here, Gumby, recently replaced the big battery in his Prius for $2400, pretty much wiping out the years of cost savings from increased MPG that he feels he achieved. So there is a potential downside to a vehicle with consumable batteries that you pay "up" for in the initial purchase. Just mentioning this and not wanting to start a "back and forth" about cost savings, etc.

From the Wall Street Journal: "You could have built a bridge to Tokyo with all the wood-head experts who predicted Prius battery failures would cost consumers thousands. Battery failure rates in Prius turned out to be practically nil." Toyota's Prius: Performance Is All That Matters - WSJ
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:42 AM   #617
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My primary reason for buying a Prius was my feeling that gasoline was headed to $5 or more. Got that one wrong...

Other reasons: most of my driving at present is short-trip city driving. Many cars get good mpg on the highway, but that drops significantly when driving in town. The Prius gets about the same both in town and on the highway, i.e. 50 or so.

Also, DFW spends most of the summer at pollution level orange. Since I get more than triple the gas mileage that my pickup got, I assume I'm generating about one-third the pollution.

And, lastly, it's a neat gadget!
City driving is perfect for the Prius. Not knocking the car at all, just stating my experiences and preferences. It is neat technology. If my wife wanted to give up her Hyundai Santa Fe and get into a smaller car, I would look at a used Prius since she only drives around The Woodlands, which is becoming a traffic nightmare. The Santa Fe averages about 22 MPG with her driving. What I could save on fuel, could pay for her trips to the hair/nail shop (maybe?).

We'd keep the diesel for road trips.
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:50 AM   #618
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I like the Tesla, a friend has one and loves it, but I don't drive enough miles to justify the cost and get anywhere near a ROI. The salesman I talked to could not give me a good answer to the "When will I have to replace the battery and how much will it cost?" question. And their charging station locations don't fit the routes I want to drive. I think I'll stick with my F150.
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Old 05-29-2015, 10:57 AM   #619
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From the Wall Street Journal: "You could have built a bridge to Tokyo with all the wood-head experts who predicted Prius battery failures would cost consumers thousands. Battery failure rates in Prius turned out to be practically nil." Toyota's Prius: Performance Is All That Matters - WSJ
Article only slants toward the good points. Also mentions it is more of an appliance than a real car. It has its place, though. Read some of the published comments. Batteries are being replaced. I stated a member here had to do that, it's not a fantasy and cost ~$2500.

I stated it's great technology, but the packaging is poorly executed. If Tesla made this car, keeping the price where it is, it probably would be a great improvement.
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Old 05-29-2015, 11:35 AM   #620
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It seems we have a different view on what constitutes losing

As long as any technology grows faster than its applicable market, I'd define it as winning.
You can have the best technology in the world, but if the consumer is not buying it, then it is useless...

The Betamax tape storage was much better than the VHS... but VHS won because the consumer bought them... because there were other advantages that VHS had over Beta.... such as cost and how much you could record...

So I disagree with how you define winning.... it makes it better for the people who choose to get the newest and greatest thing, but I do not see how that is winning...
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