More on the Tesla electric car

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 ... Sorry, but I expect more from Musk (he is an impressive guy). -ERD50

Why, I described earlier pretty much exactly what this would be based on the tweets.

Some people made predictions which would do very little to eliminate range anxiety.

This eliminates the unknown, thus the anxiety, almost perfectly.

As for your money analogy, I feel a lot more secure in the car's range estimates than in your financial future

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras Why, I described earlier pretty much exactly what this would be based on the tweets. Some people made predictions which would do very little to eliminate range anxiety.

Yes, but I was hoping there would be some kind of actual range extension, even if only under limited 'emergency' cases. That would reduce the range anxiety, no? Like a reserve tank on a car/motorcycle - oops ran out, flip a switch, OK, I can go 20 more miles...

I'm pretty sure I'm right about the EV batteries being treated 'gently' - not charging too high and not discharging too low, in order to get a years more life from them, compared to say a laptop battery. So I thought it might be possible to allow an occasional deep discharge, based on the data they have collected.

Quote:

This eliminates the unknown, thus the anxiety, almost perfectly. As for your money analogy, I feel a lot more secure in the car's range estimates than in your financial future

But the quote from Elon that I was responding to:

Quote:

"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."

is just circular, and that's what my reference was to. He is saying that you won't run out of range, as long as you don't plan to drive too far. Circular. You can have any color, as long as it's black (Henry Ford - the more things change, the more they stay the same!)

Range anxiety isn't simply and totally a function of predicting when you will run out, so that you can avoid it (though that helps, depending how bad the predictions were in the first place). But compared to an ICE and gas stations all around, an unplanned side trip can certainly cause anxiety in an EV.

Elon did say (bold mine):

Quote:

About to end range anxiety

OK, he improved the prediction and options for recharging. That all well and good, but it isn't putting an end to it. It was hyperbole, plain and simple.

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound ... Here hoping for a breakthrough in battery technology, which will open the floodgate to lots of exciting applications, on the road as well as at home.

You're not holding your breath, are you?

Batteries have been on a steady improvement path, lots of motivation to improve them, and the problems seem to be well understood. Progress just takes time. I think the chances of a 'breakthrough' are very, very slim (but we can still hope!).

I recall someone on this forum with a good understanding of chemical properties made some estimates of just how good a battery could get in theory. Based on the energy band gaps, densities, sizes, of the chemicals themselves, etc. It was impressive, but not out-of-this world, and then the realities of actually needing to package that theory come into play, and you were not talking super huge improvements.

Maybe those micro fuel cells that run on methanol will make a resurgence? Or something we can't even dream of?

-ERD50

[Zathras]

No, extending range would do almost nothing to range anxiety?
Does the 60kWh come with Range anxiety and the 85kWh not?

If you have a side trip, with this new software (if it is as good as claimed) there is no anxiety.
The car will tell you, yes you can make it, yes you can make it if you charge at this location or slow down, or no you can't.

Anxiety is gone, as the unknown is gone. That is what was stated and that is what people got.

At one time, if you didn't know how the car behaved, the estimated range didn't take into account elevation changes, speed changes, etc and gave no warning about not being able to make it.
This caused range anxiety, as you couldn't be sure. With this software, you can.

[sailor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 I wonder what people with TOD meters pay at night there?

For example my EMC in GA has following rates:

1. All kWh of Off-Peak Energy @ $0.0445 per kWh
2. All kWh of On-Peak Energy @ $0.280 per kWh

http://file.sawnee.com/web-docs/rates/TU-22.pdf

[ERD50]

I'll still say they improved the situation, they didn't "end range anxiety". That's my point, the hype.

Quote:

If you have a side trip, with this new software (if it is as good as claimed) there is no anxiety. The car will tell you, yes you can make it, yes you can make it if you charge at this location or slow down, or no you can't. Anxiety is gone, as the unknown is gone.

And if you can't - that creates anxiety. Oh no, I'm gonna be waaayyyy late for an important appointment, because I had to make this side trip! Isn't that anxiety?

For casual use, I don't care when I get there, or I can stop for a charge, or just go home, whatever, fine. But for people relying on the car for everyday getting around, the inability to refill in 10 minutes at a gas station is a problem. It becomes less of a problem as the range increases (and as more chargers become available, but still slower than pumping dino-fuel).

Quote:

No, extending range would do almost nothing to range anxiety? Does the 60kWh come with Range anxiety and the 85kWh not?

No, I don't agree. It's not binary. All else being equal, the longer range car will have fewer cases of causing anxiety over something like an unplanned side trip.

Teslas are cool, but I don't think that means EVs are anywhere near ready for acceptance across any significant % of the population. And as I've hashed out previously, I really don't see any reason for people to move towards EVs (unless they just want to, for the acceleration/$). A modern non-plug-in hybrid is equal or better (much better in some ways) from an environmental standpoint, and people don't have to adjust their driving. Fill 'er up and go. And go, and go and go, until you need another 10 minute fill up, available just about everywhere, without going out of your way.

In my view, a 200 mile range, and a ten minute recharge at every gas station in the world would count as "ending" range anxiety for EVs. Until then, it's still there, regardless of Elon's tweets.

-ERD50

[Zathras]

I'll never go back to the inconvenience of filling up at a gas station.
I far prefer having a full tank every morning.

What you described may be disappointment, bet there is no unknown. No question of can I or can't I.
I'm sorry you read more into Elon's statement than what he said.
Normally he actually is more grandiose.

When listening to anything like that, from anyone selling a product, I tend to take it with a grain of salt. In this case, as long as the software delivers, he was quite literal.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras ... What you described may be disappointment, bet there is no unknown. No question of can I or can't I. I'm sorry you read more into Elon's statement than what he said. ...

OK, I'll stop now. You are insistent that 'anxiety' is only caused by the unknown, and my life experience tells me otherwise, and you won't see it that way. So that's that.

It's as if all anxiety ends when I recognize that an angry Grizzly Bear is chasing me. Whew, for a second, I couldn't tell what it was, now that was anxiety!

I didn't read more into Elon's statement than what he said - I quoted it verbatim, and there isn't any wiggle room in "ending" something. It's like the Dead Parrot.

Sure, my thoughts on depleting the battery deeper on occasion were just my ramblings (better than the reporter who talked about improving the inverter), but I'm not holding Elon to that. I'm holding him to what he said.

-ERD50

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 ... It's as if all anxiety ends when I recognize that an angry Grizzly Bear is chasing me. Whew, for a second, I couldn't tell what it was, now that was anxiety! ...

Poor analogy, as I would agree that would be a cause for anxiety, because I would be wondering if I could live through it.
So even your own example shows fear of the unknown.

That said, we appear to have different definitions of anxiety, so you are right, we won't agree on this.

[ls99]

I got curious about replaceing Tesla batteries, cost, longevity etc.. Another form of anxiety, range of time.

A 2012 article discusses the the cost of a bricked battery. $40,000. Which can be achieved by letting it go completeley dead, about 11 weeks of no charge just sitting doing nothing, or having ran it low and not recharging immediately.

Could a bricked Tesla battery cost you $40,000? | ExtremeTech

"Tesla’s owner’s manual says a fully charged Roadster battery will last 11 weeks. But there’s also a warning that a car left to sit for more than two weeks should be plugged into Tesla’s $2,000 special charger. A car low on power could also be done in by a power cord that comes unplugged, a circuit breaker or ground fault interrupter that trips, or a long extension cord that can’t handle the current flow. It’s one more thing to worry about if you leave for an extended trip
In the case of a Tesla, you apparently can’t just do a deep and loving recharge: no battery version of the dent wizard. When the battery bricks, or fully discharges, you replace the battery pack at a cost of around $40,000 ($32,000 plus labor and taxes). It’s not covered by the Tesla warranty or car insurance. You can buy a $12,000 replacement policy that would cover a worn out battery but not a dead-from-total-discharge battery while the car is under warranty. TheUnderstatement contends at least five of 2,200 Tesla Roadsters have suffered this condition and Tesla has ways to track battery condition remotely, via on-board telematics monitoring, and attempts to contact owners. The story can’t make up its mind whether this is a good thing (Tesla just saved you forty large) or bad thing (Big Brother and all).



Has the cost gotten cheaper since 2012?



A fellow in town just bought a 2012 model for $10K and is totally enamored with it. 30,000 miles and it needs new tires. Guess he has not figured out that tires worn out at 30K miles indicates some interesting past life. Has had it for three days. He thinks his 115 volt garage outlet will be sufficient to keep it going. The nearest Tesla charger station is about 25 miles away.


I figure in a year or so I'll offer him 100 bucks for it.

[Zathras]

The roadster battery pack did not have the idiot protections present in the Model S battery packs.
Not many Roadster owners shipped their Roadsters to Japan by boat (unplugged), then shipped it back to the U.S. (Still without plugging it in).
There were two confirmed cases of people that ignored the warnings that a plugged in Tesla is a happy Tesla and left the car unplugged for months on end.

The S goes into various deeper and deeper stages of sleep to protect the battery and does not allow the owner to drive it down as close to zero as the Roadster did.

As for costs, the batteries are covered by a 8 year unlimited (85kWh)/125,000 mile (60kWh) warranty which covers pretty much everything except intentional damage.

If your friend bought a Model S for $10,000 he bought a salvage and has more guts than I

I should add, the 110 outlet will be sufficient if he drives 40-50 miles a day. That is about what you will get from an overnight charge on a 110.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ls99 A fellow in town just bought a 2012 model for $10K and is totally enamored with it. 30,000 miles and it needs new tires. Guess he has not figured out that tires worn out at 30K miles indicates some interesting past life. Has had it for three days. He thinks his 115 volt garage outlet will be sufficient to keep it going. The nearest Tesla charger station is about 25 miles away. I figure in a year or so I'll offer him 100 bucks for it.

Yeah, but you may need a $40,000 battery then.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras The roadster battery pack did not have the idiot protections present in the Model S battery packs. ...

Interesting how you put that.

It can't possibly be a shortcoming of the Tesla, no, it is the 'idiot' who let the battery die.

Kind of like if the car doesn't have enough range for an unplanned side-trip, it must be the driver's fault!

A bit more seriously, I realize the battery brick problem is (was?) only under extreme circumstances. It's a part of the leaning curve with new technology - not everything is going to be the same as the old stuff. But considering the cost of a battery pack, not an small issue either.

On a related note - I don't think I ever heard much about the SW changes to reduce the phantom draw on the batteries/charger. What kind of power does it need that never makes it to the motor? I'm not sure how it was measured, seems usage specific?

-ERD50

[Zathras]

Don't get me wrong, sure the Tesla has shortcomings.
Tell me, how would you describe someone that hasn't changed the oil in there car after 50,000 miles even after being told about the recommended 3000 mile oil change intervals? I'd call them both idiots.

The phantom draw depends upon user settings (how immediate you want the app to connect to the car). Each day the car looses between 2-5 miles, which equates to about .65-1.65 kWh.

[ls99]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Yeah, but you may need a $40,000 battery then.

For a hundred bucks, it could be a fun experimental project. Initially remove the Tesla badges then remove/disable the high tech crap. Replace with a golf cart motor and a Rolls deep cycle battery or two for going to the grocery store and diner each 4 miles away.

Then see about getting a volume discount on 3000 eneloop AA batteries.

All sorts of fun could be had.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras The phantom draw depends upon user settings (how immediate you want the app to connect to the car). Each day the car looses between 2-5 miles, which equates to about .65-1.65 kWh.

So, sitting in the garage the Tesla "burns" about 1 pound of coal per day, or 8 cubic feet of natural gas per day (if that's how my electricity is generated). Add another 25% or so for transmission/conversion losses. Every day, mandatory, whether the car is driven or not. I wonder if the EPA's MPGe figures for electric cars include these phantom losses? They wouldn't be much in the grand scale of things, but they are there (over 3% of the average US household's electricity use of 909 kwh/month)

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras Don't get me wrong, sure the Tesla has shortcomings. Tell me, how would you describe someone that hasn't changed the oil in there car after 50,000 miles even after being told about the recommended 3000 mile oil change intervals? I'd call them both idiots. ...

I mostly agree. My response was a bit tongue-in-cheek, in the context of the 'range anxiety' posts.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras The phantom draw depends upon user settings (how immediate you want the app to connect to the car). Each day the car looses between 2-5 miles, which equates to about .65-1.65 kWh.

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem So, sitting in the garage the Tesla "burns" about 1 pound of coal per day, or 8 cubic feet of natural gas per day (if that's how my electricity is generated). Add another 25% or so for transmission/conversion losses. Every day, mandatory, whether the car is driven or not. I wonder if the EPA's MPGe figures for electric cars include these phantom losses? They wouldn't be much in the grand scale of things, but they are there (over 3% of the average US household's electricity use of 909 kwh/month)

And when you consider that the average EV owner is likely to drive fewer miles than the overall average, because people who have to drive many miles a day won't be purchasing them, and often the EV is a 'second car', and probably won't be used on the occasional longer trips, this effect, though relatively small, will be amplified on a per mile basis.

If EVs had a clear environmental advantage over other choices w/o range issues ('regular' hybrids), it would be different. But these little things just take them from 'meh' to worse (environmentally).

I fully expect some form of hybrid, or other technology to continue to surpass the EV in environmental terms. Advances in batteries help hybrids as well. I don't think we are at the end of the road with hybrid performance. And maybe the next big thing (I posted in another thread) is the full series hybrid with a micro-turbine? Ceramics, nano-composites, and other advances in material science might make the micro-turbine feasible for passenger vehicles?

Or we might figure a way to harness the waste heat from the engines? Adding a 5th and 6th cycle to an ICE is being looked at - the extra power cycle draws on the normal waste heat, reducing/eliminating the need for water-cooling - you get a lighter engine (offset some by lower average power - the extra power stroke isn't that powerful, and adds time between the 'real' power strokes).

But batteries and motors and controllers are already very efficient - not much to improve on, other than weight, cost and 'fussiness'. I doubt they can keep up with innovation in other areas. Really.

-ERD50

[Zathras]

Looks like that is about right.
That pound of coal is much less than non-hybrids burn (energy wise) while sitting in traffic, or far less than they simply burn off as wasted heat and noise.

Add to the GHG advantages for 60% of the population (using 2012 grid numbers, http://blog.ucsusa.org/how-do-electr...h-gas-cars-656) the local pollution advantages of not spewing out carcinogenic fumes into neighborhoods and city streets and the advantage is pretty clear.

Only for those whose range needs are met though.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zathras Looks like that is about right. That pound of coal is much less than non-hybrids burn (energy wise) while sitting in traffic, or far less than they simply burn off as wasted heat and noise. Add to the GHG advantages for 60% of the population (using 2012 grid numbers, How do EVs Compare with Gas-Powered Vehicles? Better Every Year…. - The Equation) the local pollution advantages of not spewing out carcinogenic fumes into neighborhoods and city streets and the advantage is pretty clear. Only for those whose range needs are met though.

I've already pointed out how biased that report is. They compare to 'average' cars. But if you want to be environmentally friendly, you would look at the most environmental options. And do they include this phantom loss?

I'm not going to rehash the numbers, they are in this thread, .. here:

http://www.early-retirement.org/foru...ml#post1329959

and a small excerpt of that exchange:

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Quote from 'State of Charge': 45% of the population in 2009 lived in an area of the country where the GHG emissions of the typical EV is better than that of the Prius. And ERD50 says: So for 55% of the population, the EV is worse than a Prius.

IIRC, the Prius isn't the best of the hybrids either...

If you like your Tesla, that's cool. I just don't think it deserves any 'green cred'. Unless you want to compare it to other performance cars, but that's not really a green area, is it?

-ERD50

[Zathras]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 I've already pointed out how biased that report is. They compare to 'average' cars. ... If you like your Tesla, that's cool. I just don't think it deserves any 'green cred'. Unless you want to compare it to other performance cars, but that's not really a green area, is it? -ERD50

This is true, they compare "average cars".
They also compare electrics to the most fuel efficient gas car out there, which yes, is the Prius (using EPA numbers).
They actually have boiled it down to a very easy to read map showing the greenhouse gas equivalent mpg rating in each region.

The info you quoted from their original study (45% of the population) has been updated to 60% as the EVs have gotten more fuel efficient.
And that is 60% of the population that lives in areas where an electric car is cleaner that a Prius.

I think electrics deserve more green cred than they get considering they local pollution gas cars emit.
The Tesla is a laggard when it comes to efficiencies of electric cars, but outstanding when compared to all the cars out there.

[Brat]

I have observed many solar paneled roofs over parking with EV power plugs in the Silicon Valley. I doubt that the vehicles are powered at those locations are using electricity generated by coal or oil. Those that are plugged in at night are consuming electricity when generating facilities are wheeling more than is being consumed.

The energy and materials used in the production of batteries is a different calculus.