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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-08-2006, 01:05 PM   #121
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Seems the data and the conclusion drawn here dont exactly match.

Out of 1247 documents found with a simple google search (a finely detailed and authoratative information gathering process...NOT!), 335 fully support or accept the theory and 34 reject or 'doubt' it, with no explanation as to what consists of 'doubt'.

So with ~90% of the pertinent reports supporting or accepting the theory, this author declares the study used by gore to be wrong and that consensus does not exist.

Bet that guy has a lot of "special" credit cards...
It was hardly a google search. The ISI database was searched, and while it is far from perfect, it is the same source used in the original research.

Quote:
He analyzed those 1,117 abstracts and found that only 13 explicitly endorse the consensus view; 322 implicitly accept it but focus on other aspects; 44 focus on natural factors of global climate change; and 34 reject or doubt the Al Gore view altogether.
This passage seems to imply to me that the 322 do support global climate change, but do not focus or directly support Gore's position. Without more indepth access to the second study there is no way to tell. Implications are great, but are not support. Just looking at the results the seocnd seems more reliable, only because there is dissent. I find it very difficult to believe 900 of anybody all agree on something as large as global climate unless they are prescreened.
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-08-2006, 03:02 PM   #122
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

It's easy to rebut a meta-study when you change the terms, as Peiser did.

Peiser included the Social Sciences and the Art & Humanities index. (This is important because some of the papers he found in the additional indices are just policy papers and, essentially, op-eds.)

In other words, Peiser is blowing smoke by changing the premise. If he limited his search to the same fields Oreskes did, he would have found the 928 articles.

As for the 34 that reject anthropogenic warming, some of the abstracts' positions are HIGHLY subjective. Here's one of them:

http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/...?osti_id=61835

The abstract, if you don't care to follow the link:

"Despite much scientific progress over many decades, the nature of global climate change remains highly uncertain, and the possibility of global climate catastrophe is one of the main concerns in public debates about global climate change. In this paper, we present a model which incorporates the risk of climate catastrophe in an analysis of greenhouse gas abatement strategy."

Now, does that appear to contradict anthropogenic climate change? Or is Peiser letting his bias show?

BTW, here's another which is "anti-anthropogenic":

"This paper examines the debate over the relationship between SSK and politics by exploring the implications of ‘the reflexive turn’ during the 1980s."


And another:
"Nevertheless, these results suggest that T/P [GPS satellites] is achieving the necessary repeatability to measure global sea level variations caused by climate change, and a longer time series will significantly improve the sea level rise estimate by averaging measurement error and real sea level variations."

Uhhh.


I think we can safely ignore both studies as the reading of abstracts is such a subjective methodology.
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-08-2006, 04:42 PM   #123
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

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Implications are great, but are not support.
It says, and I quote "Implicitly accept it", where "it" is the theory of global warming. What other interpretation could you draw from that? Implicit acceptance sounds a lot closer to agreeing than disagreeing.

Point is, this looks like an attempt to reverse engineer the discrediting of the original study. If this is the best the detractors could do, it speaks volumes...
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-09-2006, 02:31 AM   #124
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
It says, and I quote "Implicitly accept it", where "it" is the theory of global warming.* What other interpretation could you draw from that?* Implicit acceptance sounds a lot closer to agreeing than disagreeing.
"It" is the global climate change.* I'm refferring to the last portion of the phrase where it says the abstracts "focus on other aspects."* Where "aspects" refers to Gore's position.* How I'm intrepreting it is they imply support for the theory of global climate change, BUT the researchers do not place the blame on the same reasons Gore is asserting for the change.
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-09-2006, 07:12 AM   #125
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-09-2006, 07:51 AM   #126
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

Hmmm

First cup of coffee post. I take the Apollo 8 view - I had a picture of 'Earthrise Over The Moon' for many years.

Would hate to see us become like the Easter Island saga writ large. So since we're here - what are the engineering numbers 'molecule wise' so to speak and can we effect the trend as humans. Politicians(and many scientists) would do well to read W Edward Demming's 'The Red Bead Experiment'.

To Repeat - we humans tend to overrate ourselves - politicians often confuse passing a law with getting something done - if the money is there then the research will follow, etc.,etc.

Doesn't mean we all should go off and meditate the sound of one hand clapping - just that isolating the pearls from the sound and fury isn't easy.

Remember that great tv ad - 'It's not nice to fool Mother Nature.' They made and sold the stuff anyway.

heh heh heh heh - on to the second cup.
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-09-2006, 09:45 AM   #127
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

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Originally Posted by lets-retire
"It" is the global climate change. I'm refferring to the last portion of the phrase where it says the abstracts "focus on other aspects." Where "aspects" refers to Gore's position. How I'm intrepreting it is they imply support for the theory of global climate change, BUT the researchers do not place the blame on the same reasons Gore is asserting for the change.
I made no such interpretation, there being no data to support it. If I have a guy that I see quite clearly is trying to discredit a position, and he's vague, I'm going to bet the vagueness leans on the side towards the position he's trying to discredit.

But once again, we're discussing nuances of bits of poorly described, likely non factual information based on someone elses interpretation of a semi random collection of probably biased, perhaps improperly performed, research and opinion.

In short, we already knew what the answer we wanted was and picked the data and interpretations to support that, and nothing any of us would ever see would change that opinion.
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-09-2006, 09:36 PM   #128
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editor...l?id=110008626

A somewhat related editorial/profile on Bjorn Lomborg, a Dane who is trying to get UN and other policymakers to recognize the need to prioritize their efforts. Using economic principles similar to "return on investment", should the next $1 billion be spent on malaria prevention? HIV/AIDS prevention? Global warming issues? Policymakers and those in bureaucracies don't like to rank order things--but forcing them to do so has value.

Partial quote:
Slipping into his environmentalist's shoes, he also says people need to get some perspective. "The U.N. tells us global warming will result in a sea-level change of one to two feet. It is not going to be the 30 feet Al Gore is scaring us with. Is this one to two feet going to be a problem? Sure," he says. "But remember that this past century sea levels rose between one-third and a full foot. And if you ask old people today what the most important things were that happened in the 20th century, do you think they are going to say: 'Two world wars, the internal combustion engine, the IT revolution . . . and sea levels rose'? It's not to say it isn't a problem. But we fix these problems."
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth
Old 07-10-2006, 12:35 AM   #129
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Re: Movie Review: An Inconvenient Truth

Certianly there are other issues to be considered. In fact I think there is a strong case for the use of DDT in Africa to halt the spread of Malaria. I'm for the environment, but not at the price of millions of human children! Those bed nets are a joke.

I'm definitely all for return on investment on this particular issue as well. There is plenty of cheap changes that can be made to improve the situation. Rather than run out and spend 40k on a home solar system, start by changing out your lightbulbs to high efficiency ones. In the long run it will save you money.
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Old 05-22-2007, 10:15 AM   #130
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Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Someone who saw the movie: Did it mention that global warming is caused by overpopulation?

Actually, it made the case that overpopulation is not the problem, that while the U.S. is only 5% of the Global population, it produces over 30% of the greenhouse gas emmisions.
Well, I finally got around to seeing this movie, and he did not say that at all, anywhere in the movie. This is what Gore said about population:

We are witnessing a collision between our civilization and the Earth. There are three factors that are causing this collision.

1. Population - when the baby boom generation was born after WW II the population had just crossed the 2 billion mark. I'm in my 50s and it's already gone to 6 « billion. If I reach the demographic expectation for the baby boomers, it will go over 9 billion. If it takes 10,000 generations to reach 2 billion and then, in one human lifetime, ours, it goes from 2 billion to 9 billion, something profoundly different is going on right now. We're putting more pressure on the Earth. Most of it's in the poorer nations of the world. It puts pressure on food demand. It puts pressure on water demand. It puts pressure on vulnerable natural resources, and this pressure is one of the reasons we have seen such devastation of the forest, not only tropical but elsewhere.
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