Need for Pilots

[clifp]

Well my question is what is the impact going to be of requiring 1,500 hours to even get a job as a 1st officer at regional airline? IIRC, civilian new pilot starts have been flat to down for decades. Thus the demand for CFI is pretty low. In the past after 250 hours at a cost of $50-80K you could get a low paying job at regional Airline. Now assuming the Yahoo answer are reasonably accurate it is going to cost $250K to get entry ATP job?

[sdtech]

Let me try to answer the question of the 1500 hours versus lower time. Changing the hours will have no impact.

Regardless of the regulations, you aren't even competitive for a regional unless you have about that much time built up in the military, as a flight instructor, or high personal cost. Probably have to add a freight running job or a micro regional also.

Then, regardless of the time you have at hire, you will then be sent to training for that company and for the specific airplane you will be co-pilot for.

I should add - it is great to fly. Really great. I love doing it personally but unless I had a military background, I'd pick another career to build the wealth - and use it to fly for fun. You also get to pick your passengers and destinations that way.

[Rustic23]

A long long long time ago, the airlines hired high school graduates with little or no experience as they were desperate for pilots. Those pilots set right seat for a very long time. My guess is if they are having trouble getting pilots with the required time, they will start a school, and give them the time. Rather than flying people, they will be private pilots for the airlines and fly daily. Students would get very little in way of pay, possibly nothing, but training would be free. In the end a guaranteed job with regional/major airline. Contract might call for a payment, but like teachers, the debt would be reduced by the amount of time they worked for the parent company. Even a non compete clause for say ten years.

The airlines get pilots trained like they want them, if they can sell the flying service the pilots are doing while building hours all the better.

[explanade]

Sounds like most of these guys are in their 40s by the time their airline careers get started.

So do you want to risk flying an airliner with only one 40-50-ish guy who can land the plane?

With the stress and so forth, that seems risky, if the guy has a heart attack or stroke while the plane is in the air.

[Rustic23]

Aircraft are already capable of landing them self's. Drones do it everyday. The time will come when there are no pilots in the cockpit. While I admit that sounds far out, but a hundred years ago you would not get into an elevator without an operator, or a commuter train. Both run today without human intervention. In 1968 I flew an aircraft that had triple redundant systems. Each computer checked the others. We have come a long way since then.

Now to be fair and balanced, I believe currently drones have a higher accident rate than manned aircraft. So there is still a ways to go before we see the pilot-less cockpit.

[Walt34]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustic23 Now to be fair and balanced, I believe currently drones have a higher accident rate than manned aircraft. So there is still a ways to go before we see the pilot-less cockpit.

I can see it now: Passengers have to sign a waiver "Past performance does not guarantee future results".

But the fares will be cheap.

[explanade]

No they won't pass any labor costs savings on.

Maybe remote piloting capabilities will be the best combination.

The airlines who first use robotic and remote piloting may have to offer lower fares for people to buy tickets.

Because it's not going to be easy to convince people that self-driving cars will improve the driving experience.

[aja8888]

I have been flying commercially for 35 years and have well over 1,000,000 miles in two or three carriers.

I just flew to Birmingham, U.K. Sunday and back from Frankfort Main, Germany last night. My mind is still dull from this business trip, but let me tell you, I won't set foot on a commercial airliner that is flown in drone mode with no pilot or copilot in the cabin.

[Hamlet]

My only experience with a pilot is a guy I worked with when I started in computer networking in 1997 or so. He had left being a pilot because it was going to take him 10-20 years to get enough seniority to earn a decent living as a pilot. There wasn't much growth projected in the industry, and he would pretty much be waiting for the pilots ahead of him to retire.

He became CCIE certified in a couple of years, which was pretty much a ticket to 100k+.

[clifp]

Quote:

Originally Posted by sdtech Let me try to answer the question of the 1500 hours versus lower time. Changing the hours will have no impact. Regardless of the regulations, you aren't even competitive for a regional unless you have about that much time built up in the military, as a flight instructor, or high personal cost. Probably have to add a freight running job or a micro regional also. Then, regardless of the time you have at hire, you will then be sent to training for that company and for the specific airplane you will be co-pilot for. I should add - it is great to fly. Really great. I love doing it personally but unless I had a military background, I'd pick another career to build the wealth - and use it to fly for fun. You also get to pick your passengers and destinations that way.

Thanks for the explanation, I didn't realize that regional could pay so little for 1st officers and still be so demanding on the number of hours required.

I will say the Airline pilots I've known at the majors (including my flight instructor) were all happy with their job and it seem pretty cushy. The couple of young guys I talked to at the regional were less happy.

I guess the difference between making 100K and 30-40K for the same job has an impact on job satisfaction

[check6]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rustic23 I don't have a reference as to when airline pilots hit six figures, but I think it is around two years experience. However here is another reference: https://www.pea.com/airline-pilot-salary/ So, a job starting at $25,000 to be at $125,000+ in ten years and only have to fly, personally I just can't call it work, no more than 1,000 a year sounds pretty good.

http://m.bizjournals.com/phoenix/new...ge.html?r=full

I could say the same about the military, except in that case, when not flying, it was useless "make work" which continues today leading to another large exodus of military pilots. Rustic and I both flew fighters; he stayed and after 11 years I went to a major airline and never looked back.

Six digit pay did not occur until my tenth year. After pay cuts, mergers, 9/11, more pay cuts, BK, another merger, captain pay for the same aircraft when I retired in 2008 was the same rate as it was in 1989. With the exception of the regional carriers, pay has improved but the great retirement has vanished.

As indicated by the link above, there is not a shortage of pilots, there is a shortage of pilots willing to work for the low wages the regionals are offering expecially after the debt they have incurred in obtaining their ratings.

Fatigue is the largest factor in a pilot's life and hence the recent FAA changes in rest requirements. Try crossing an ocean four times in six days. Our layovers and days off were spent catching up on sleep.

Drones will never happen in our lifetime. A guy in a box on the ground will not have enough cues even with data linked radar to avoid thunderstorms and associated turbulence. I could say the same for mechanical problems.

With pilots now able to fly to age 65, while rare, expect to see a higher incidence of pilots dying while flying. There will always be two pilots in the cockpit.

[davismills]

Kinda sounds like me. I signed on with the Air Force as a Navigator in the early eighties. I had a commercial pilot license at the time with 20/30 vision. The AF insisted they would not waive my eyesight for pilot training. Took the Nav offer and became a Flight Instructor at various military aero clubs and thoroughly enjoyed it and ended up with 1000 hours of pilot time and 3500 hrs of nav time. I flew with the AF Reserve pilots many times and almost all of them flew for major carriers for their day jobs. Most were bored and said the airlines took all the glamour out of flying. I stayed in the AF to retirement and transformed myself into a CCNP with CCIE written passed. Hit the six figure mark in computer networking and never looked back on a potential airline job. I think it was a good decision. I never received an unemployment check in my life...very grateful.