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View Poll Results: Who do you pick to win Super Bowl 2017?
Patriots by 7 pts or less 25 32.47%
Patriots by 8-14 pts 12 15.58%
Patriots by over 14 pts 3 3.90%
Falcons by 7 pts or less 19 24.68%
Falcons by 8-14 pts 5 6.49%
Falcons by over 14 pts 3 3.90%
I just watch the commercials or halftime event 4 5.19%
other 6 7.79%
Voters: 77. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-06-2017, 01:53 PM   #141
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Woulda, coulda, shoulda....
Sorry, I forgot. Just contradicted myself again. Falcons were already in FG range. Okay.. no more Monday morning quarterbacking from me. Congrats to the Pats.
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Old 02-06-2017, 02:03 PM   #142
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... interesting that the outcome of the game lines up with the biggest chunk of poll-takers in this thread--Patriots by seven points or less.
Not that surprising given the collective wisdom of people on this forum... where is the "pat on the back" emoji when you need it?
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Old 02-06-2017, 02:10 PM   #143
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+1000

The NFL's OT format is seriously flawed and hugely favors the team that happens to win the coin flip, especially when that team has a strong offense. If Atlanta had won the toss, I think they'd have been MUCH more likely to win the game. Doesn't seem right that in game as consequential as the Superbowl, it more or less comes down to a random coin flip.

Makes no sense that the NFL doesn't adopt something similar to the NCAA football overtime system. Each team gets a chance to score and to defend, so that neither side is arbitrarily favored. I don't see any downside whatsoever to this, and it would eliminate those pesky (though rare) games that end in a tie.
Totally agree... each team should get a shot at scoring and if a team having the last chance to score doesn't tie or win, then the other team is the winner... IOW, the team getting the final chance has to at least tie in order stay alive (Atlanta would have needed to score a touchdown to extend the game).
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Old 02-06-2017, 02:29 PM   #144
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I kinda like the old fashioned winner take all, first team that wins. Yes, that does seem unfair during the playoffs that so much is determined by a coin flip. But I don't like the if team gets FG, play on. If TD, game ends thing.

Actually, I'd like in regular season play another quarter, in playoffs, keep playing til someone drops. Of course, I'm not the one running around being tired out .
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Old 02-06-2017, 06:01 PM   #145
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I am a big fan of the "probability of win" forecasts that are now pretty standard. I'm surprised that there isn't some better play calling based on potential outcomes. Atlanta committed some unforced errors that cost them.

Here is the key poor decision in my mind:
Second-and-11, Patriots' 23
Win expectancy shift: 1.4 percent to 4.9 percent (+3.5 percent)

Instead, inexplicably, the Falcons chose to pass the ball on second down, on a slow-developing play that ended with Ryan going down for a coverage sack at the hands of Flowers, who slipped between center Alex Mack and right guard Chris Chester. The sack is partly on Ryan, who needed to get the ball out and held onto it for more than four seconds before hitting the turf.

Woody Hayes used to say that when you pass three things can happen and two of them are bad. With Atlanta already in field goal range, they just needed to kills some time, and force timeouts. If they gained any yardage, they just increased their win probability. Instead, they brought a sack in to play.
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Old 02-06-2017, 06:07 PM   #146
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I think this SB exposed the flawed OT rule it has, even the slightly less flawed version after the eliminated the one-drive-FG-win allowance a few years ago. They need to extend its OT rule to first-possession TDs so the other team has a chance to score one. Otherwise, the team which loses the coin toss faces two burdens to win - successful defense to stop the other team and successful offense in scoring. The team which wins the coin toss faces only one burden - having to succeed offensively - while its defense remains on the sidelines. Would New England's fans and players have sat quietly had Atlanta won the coin toss and Ryan marched down the field to a TD while the great Brady sat on the bench the whole time?

Imagine if baseball had sudden-death extra innings where the visiting team wins if they score in extra-innings and the home team never gets to hit? Or hockey's shootout to break a tie game where the first team to score a goal wins, even if the second team never gets a chance to score, too?
That's a great point and comparison to baseball. Imagine if the Cubs-Indians 7th game had a coin flip after being tied at 9 innings.

I love the College OT scenario. It's tried and proven.
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Old 02-06-2017, 06:28 PM   #147
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Imagine if the Cubs-Indians 7th game had a coin flip after being tied at 9 innings.

I love the College OT scenario. It's tried and proven.
Absolutely. The college football OT system is a thing of beauty and about the most fair protocol you could devise. Boggles the mind why the NFL sticks with such a flawed, arbitrary sudden death system.

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I kinda like the old fashioned winner take all, first team that wins.
Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but surely you don't think a "first team that scores in OT wins immediately" system is actually fair? I mean, if we went purely on that logic, Atlanta would be the Super Bowl champions today since they scored the first points of the game. Why should the OT period suddenly change the fundamental flow of the game (i.e., each team gets to possess the ball and try to score in an alternating fashion)? It makes no sense and, IMHO, is clearly a flawed system. Every other major sport I'm aware of gives both teams basically equal chances to win in the OT period.
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Old 02-06-2017, 06:51 PM   #148
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Absolutely. The college football OT system is a thing of beauty and about the most fair protocol you could devise. Boggles the mind why the NFL sticks with such a flawed, arbitrary sudden death system.



Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but surely you don't think a "first team that scores in OT wins immediately" system is actually fair? I mean, if we went purely on that logic, Atlanta would be the Super Bowl champions today since they scored the first points of the game. Why should the OT period suddenly change the fundamental flow of the game (i.e., each team gets to possess the ball and try to score in an alternating fashion)? It makes no sense and, IMHO, is clearly a flawed system. Every other major sport I'm aware of gives both teams basically equal chances to win in the OT period.
I think for one game that may not feel fair. But overall, the course of many overtime games in a season or several seasons, things should balance out close to 50-50 as to how many times a team wins vs loses a flip. Thus, looked at that way, is fair. Of course, broken down to one game with such implications seems unfair if you don't win the flip. Though, in the real sudden death games, though most, not every team that won the flip won the game.
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Old 02-06-2017, 07:34 PM   #149
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Can't say i like this format for OT in a Super Bowl.
How often does one get a chance to quote one's self. I said it prior to the outcome and I still think it is a dumb format.
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Old 02-06-2017, 07:39 PM   #150
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I think at a minimum, both teams should get the ball at least one series of downs in OT or better yet, play a full quarter and then see then who's ahead. If it's still tied, repeat another full quarter, repeat as necessary. (Especially for the Superbowl)

It's really too bad that the flip of coin in OT gives one team so much of an advantage, but those are the current rules.
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Old 02-06-2017, 07:43 PM   #151
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Yes I'm sure that someone from the Pats side got to that coin.
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Old 02-06-2017, 10:20 PM   #152
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Absolutely. The college football OT system is a thing of beauty and about the most fair protocol you could devise. Boggles the mind why the NFL sticks with such a flawed, arbitrary sudden death system.



Of course you're entitled to your opinion, but surely you don't think a "first team that scores in OT wins immediately" system is actually fair? I mean, if we went purely on that logic, Atlanta would be the Super Bowl champions today since they scored the first points of the game. Why should the OT period suddenly change the fundamental flow of the game (i.e., each team gets to possess the ball and try to score in an alternating fashion)? It makes no sense and, IMHO, is clearly a flawed system. Every other major sport I'm aware of gives both teams basically equal chances to win in the OT period.


As an aside... soccer did have the golden goal for awhile... where they played and whoever scored the first goal they won... decided to get rid of that and have a couple of short periods and if still tied a shootout...


I agree that the college OT is the best way for football... I mean, if it really was the first team to score they would have kept the win if a team got a filed goal... but they did change that rule, so they figured that was not fair... but why? First team to score... period... that makes more sense then what they have now....
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Old 02-06-2017, 10:47 PM   #153
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As an aside... soccer did have the golden goal for awhile... where they played and whoever scored the first goal they won... decided to get rid of that and have a couple of short periods and if still tied a shootout...


I agree that the college OT is the best way for football... I mean, if it really was the first team to score they would have kept the win if a team got a filed goal... but they did change that rule, so they figured that was not fair... but why? First team to score... period... that makes more sense then what they have now....
The NFL changed the OT rule to lessen the positive (and IMHO unfair) advantage of winning the coin toss. Many NFL OT games have been decided by a team winning the coin toss, taking the kickoff, getting a few first downs and moving the ball to the other team's 30-yard line, and kicking a FG to win it. The other team's offense never takes the field and the winning team's offense doesn't have to do much, maybe advance the ball 40 or 45 yards and not have to score a TD. The adjusted OT rule was an improvement because it got rid of the sudden-death ending under those circumstances. But it remains flawed because it still unfairly burdens the team which loses the coin toss with having to play both good defense and good offense in order to win the game, while the team which wins the coin toss may never have its defense tested. What should a team receive a big advantage in OT because some guy can yell out "heads" or "tails" correctly, something which has nothing to do with a team's ability to play football?
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:01 AM   #154
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Here's an idea....

How about making an OT something like 10 minutes. A coin toss to let the flip winner choose to kickoff or get the ball. After 5 minutes, a short commercial break, then kickoff to the other team. Who has the lead at end of the 10 minutes wins. If no winner during regular season, game is tied. If playoffs, they play on and repeat until someone wins.

This way each team has 5 minutes to score without the game ending on a cheap field goal. Of course, can't please everyone as some will think this is too long or isn't really like sudden death at all.
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:13 AM   #155
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Re missing jersey: are they sure Roger Goodell can account for his whereabouts? He would be a suspect in any mystery novel. Just kidding, NFL police!

B, interesting that the outcome of the game lines up with the biggest chunk of poll-takers in this thread--Patriots by seven points or less.
Roger did not take it... but he's going to appoint Ted Wells to solve the mystery.
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Old 02-07-2017, 06:43 AM   #156
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Roger did not take it... but he's going to appoint Ted Wells to solve the mystery.
a.k.a. Jersey Gate - gives Brady, the Patriots and the NFL some "post season" publicity.
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NFL Super Bowl 2017 Prediction
Old 02-07-2017, 08:21 AM   #157
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NFL Super Bowl 2017 Prediction

If the NFL wants to do sudden death OT, they should do something akin to a jump ball, or a face-off. Just line up on the respective 20 yard lines, drop the ball at midfield, then scramble for possession...

Otherwise, an OT of six minutes or so, given the average time of possession per drive is 2-3 minutes, would give both teams time for one drive, theoretically...
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Old 02-07-2017, 08:32 AM   #158
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If the NFL wants to do sudden death OT, they should do something akin to a jump ball, or a face-off. Just line up on the respective 20 yard lines, drop the ball at midfield, then scramble for possession...

Otherwise, an OT of six minutes or so, given the average time of possession per drive is 2-3 minutes, would give both teams time for one drive, theoretically...
There was such a jump ball thing with the defunct XLF. Not really a jump but more like ball on the ground and the opposing players scramble.



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Old 02-07-2017, 08:37 AM   #159
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I tend to root for the underdogs so I'm picking the Falcons. Tired of the Patriots anyway.....
So, Patriots won? Well, rats!
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Old 02-07-2017, 04:07 PM   #160
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I think the announcement of who won shouldn't even happen til after the SB. I believe in baseball, the MVP isn't announced until a few weeks after the world series.

The pre-anouncement, IMO, adds a bit of distraction to the SB. The point about Carr, leads me to think again that a lot of the voting happened during the course of the season. The Falcons and Cowboys pretty much dominated their way to the post season.

I'm gonna tune all the SB coverage hype (about 7:30 am as I type) which I bet is starting about now and just watch the, hopefully, very exciting game.
The MVP is strictly for the regular season. I believe Carr only missed the last two games of the season, both of which Oakland lost, proving more he deserved mention. He deserves his spot near the top.
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