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No one knows what will happen
Old 06-20-2016, 07:42 AM   #1
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No one knows what will happen

An interesting post by Ben Carlson (The financial advisor, not the MD) in "A Wealth of Common Sense". He starts with an intelligence memo from early 2001, prepared by a Pentagon staffer, that lists a "world view" each decade of the 20th century based on then current events but had been unforeseen even a decade earlier. The point is "no one knows what will happen".

He then applies the same approach to financial predictions. Well worth reading. The conclusion:

Quote:
By 2016, people assume we’re in a secular stagnation, interest rates and inflation will never rise in the future, no one can innovate anymore, bonds are unstoppable in the midst of a 40+ year bull market, there are negative interest rates around the globe and the Fed has been propped up both the market and the economy. Very few people are optimistic about the future.

All of which is to say that I’m not sure what the next 10, 20 or 30 years will look like, but I’m sure that it will be very little like we expect, so we should plan accordingly.
Link here No One Knows What Will Happen
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Old 06-20-2016, 08:13 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The point is "no one knows what will happen".
This makes me suspect you are trying to put all those brilliant minds who make a living as financial prognosticators out of work. Shame on you.
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Old 06-20-2016, 08:15 AM   #3
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An interesting post by Ben Carson in "A Wealth of Common Sense".
Made me look, because I thought the former presidential candidate was a retired neurosurgeon......
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Old 06-20-2016, 08:20 AM   #4
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Good point, expect the unexpected.
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Old 06-20-2016, 08:22 AM   #5
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Made me look, because I thought the former presidential candidate was a retired neurosurgeon......
I edited my post to be clear and correct a misspelling.
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Old 06-20-2016, 10:07 AM   #6
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Made me look . Then I wanted to know who Lin Wells, the "staffer at the Pentagon" who wrote the document that FA Carlson elaborates on, is/was, as I was not familiar with the name. A Navy officer for 26 years, then Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under Clinton and George W. Interesting read here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linton_Wells_II

But even more interesting is the senior Linton Wells, father of Lin Wells and "foreign correspondent", whose biography also popped up on the same Google search: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linton_Wells

What a life.
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Old 06-20-2016, 10:44 AM   #7
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Interesting!

I couldn't agree more about expecting the unexpected, in our financial planning. This is also a good idea in the rest of life as well.

Some things that Frank and I feel we learned from our Hurricane Katrina (levee failure) experiences, were:

(1) be infinitely flexible and adaptable
(2) call upon and use whatever ingenuity and experience lies within ourselves. In a situation like that, we are all MacGyver.
(3) keep a good attitude, and support and rely on each other.

I think these three points will be helpful to us in the event of unexpected impacts on our financial planning or some other aspect of life.

One thing is for sure - - no matter what wild, intense, and totally unexpected events occur, afterwards the younger generations will yawn and tell us we should have expected them.
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