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Odds of asteroid impact are increasing
Old 04-23-2014, 02:48 PM   #1
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Odds of asteroid impact are increasing

From Vox Your odds of getting killed by an asteroid just went way up - Vox

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Earth is more likely to get hit by an asteroid than we previously thought.

Scientists earlier believed that asteroids bigger than 20 meters like the one that injured about 1,500 people in Chelyabinsk back in February 2013 only collide with Earth every 150 years or so, on average.

But new findings have forced them to revise this view. The B612 Foundation, an organization devoted to detecting dangerous asteroids, has released data that indicate these sorts of asteroids could actually hit Earth once every 25 years, on average.
So, how does this impact SWR strategy and FIRECalc projections?
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Old 04-23-2014, 03:41 PM   #2
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... So, how does this impact SWR strategy and FIRECalc projections?
Impact on SWR is TBD.

However, when I visit Bevmo later today, will look to see what's the most expensive bottle of Cognac they have.

PS. Might also call off the kitchen remodeling process. What's the point now?
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Old 04-23-2014, 03:44 PM   #3
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Since a tinfoil hat won't help with that I guess we'd better spend it all before the asteroid hits.
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Old 04-23-2014, 03:45 PM   #4
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So, how does this impact SWR strategy and FIRECalc projections?
No change here. None of us will survive retirement anyhow...
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Old 04-23-2014, 04:10 PM   #5
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We're good until at least Friday, April 13th, 2029, here's proof! So I can only increase our SWR by 0.262-0.287%...

Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036
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Old 04-23-2014, 04:45 PM   #6
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First thing tomorrow, I am selling everything and will buy a piece of land in South Dakota to build an underground bunker that can survive any meteor attack. Will stock it with non perishable food to last 35 years. The only thing visible from outside will be my dish antenna. The area surrounding the bunker will be heavily fortified with land mine. Coupled that with guns and ammos I will bring to the bunker will ensure safety from others fleeing the earth shattering meteor strike.
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Old 04-23-2014, 04:50 PM   #7
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Nasa chief Charles Bolden: Mission to Mars critical for 'survival of human race' | Metro News

Too cool.Will Musk make it there first? Or NASA?
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Old 04-23-2014, 04:52 PM   #8
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Too cool.Will Musk make it there first? Or NASA?
I'm betting the air will smell a little musky by the time NASA arrives...
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Old 04-23-2014, 05:02 PM   #9
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No change here. None of us will survive retirement anyhow...
Some of the threads in the healthcare and money sections lead me to believe a few here think they can outrun both the grim reaper and the taxman.

All things considered, getting crunched by an asteroid isn't a bad way to go.
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Old 04-23-2014, 05:07 PM   #10
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All things considered, getting crunched by an asteroid isn't a bad way to go.
You're beginning to sound like an old dinosaur...

Too bad we can't ask them if it was quick and painless.
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Old 04-23-2014, 05:11 PM   #11
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I predict it will hit the day after I win the lottery.
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Old 04-23-2014, 05:17 PM   #12
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You're beginning to sound like an old dinosaur...

Too bad we can't ask them if it was quick and painless.
If you are lucky. Was a non-event for me.
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Old 04-23-2014, 06:31 PM   #13
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All things considered, getting crunched by an asteroid isn't a bad way to go.
Hah! If you are so lucky!

For 99.9% of the people who are not in the impact zone, they will perish by fire or falling debris, getting buried alive by mudslides, churned by tsunami, drown by flood. It's excruciating death!

I plan to exit this cruel world clutching my bottle of expensive Cognac. I hope it will dull the pain.
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Old 04-23-2014, 07:29 PM   #14
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I predict it will hit the day after I win the lottery.
I guess we'll have to split it then. That was my thought.
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Old 04-23-2014, 08:12 PM   #15
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I must be getting both old and more curmudgeonly. No, no, no the odds of being hit by a meteor have not increased. That could happen for example if the earth passed through the debris cloud left by a comet or some other region of space where we believe there are more objects transiting than usual. But this story is not that the odds have changed, but that scientists believe they have a new better way to calculate the odds, and the new method gives a higher estimate than the old method. The odds are no different than they were before, just the estimate has changed.
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Old 04-23-2014, 08:24 PM   #16
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Well, all I can say is that if I win the lottery you'd better still duck!
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Old 04-23-2014, 09:20 PM   #17
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Just to be a wise a$$....

The odds have not changed at all... they are the same as before... we have just gotten better data and have changed what we THOUGHT they were...
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Old 04-23-2014, 10:46 PM   #18
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Just to throw some fake numerical rigor into the pile let's see...

If 1500 people are injured every 150 years then that's about 10 injuries per year on average.... out of 7 billion people or about odds of 1.5 e-9 per year. Now that the "odds" have been determined to be 6 times worse it's still about 1 e-8 per year or less than 1 in a million odds of even being injured even during a very long 50 year retirement (and presumably the odds of actually being killed are far lower still).

In other words virtually any minute change you make in your life or habits will have a greater effect on your expected longevity than risk of asteroid impact.
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Old 04-23-2014, 11:51 PM   #19
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Want to save the planet? Donate to the B612 Foundation (for those who watch Scandal, 'B612' is not a joke). Their mission is to locate and catalog asteroids over a specific size which will pass within a specific distance of earth. Such asteroids are detectable decades before they intersect earth orbit. That gives us puny earthlings time to launch a spacecraft of sufficient mass, which depends on the asteroids size and where it can be intercepted, and ram the spacecraft into the asteroid. The minute deflection angle achieved will make the asteroid pass us by.

No government is watching for asteroids. A private foundations, with enough big league scientists and former astronauts that no one questions their credibility, is raising money. The technology to do all of this has already been used in space as part of other missions. All the foundation needs is the money to build a space telescope, the infrastructure to support it and analyze data. It's expected once they find a big rock with our name on it, government(s) with a space program will step up to nudge the asteroid.

Links to stories from major news organizations: https://b612foundation.org/newsroom/

The first step is to begin cataloging: https://b612foundation.org/sentinel-mission/
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Old 04-24-2014, 02:18 AM   #20
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Honestly, with everything else there is to worry about, I just can't get up the strength to worry about asteroids too. Hemorrhoids maybe, but asteroids no.
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