Odds of asteroid impact are increasing

MichaelB

MichaelB

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From Vox Your odds of getting killed by an asteroid just went way up - Vox

Earth is more likely to get hit by an asteroid than we previously thought.

Scientists earlier believed that asteroids bigger than 20 meters — like the one that injured about 1,500 people in Chelyabinsk back in February 2013 — only collide with Earth every 150 years or so, on average.

But new findings have forced them to revise this view. The B612 Foundation, an organization devoted to detecting dangerous asteroids, has released data that indicate these sorts of asteroids could actually hit Earth once every 25 years, on average.
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So, how does this impact SWR strategy and FIRECalc projections?
 
MichaelB said:
... So, how does this impact SWR strategy and FIRECalc projections?
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Impact on SWR is TBD.

However, when I visit Bevmo later today, will look to see what's the most expensive bottle of Cognac they have.

PS. Might also call off the kitchen remodeling process. What's the point now?
 
Since a tinfoil hat won't help with that I guess we'd better spend it all before the asteroid hits.
 
First thing tomorrow, I am selling everything and will buy a piece of land in South Dakota to build an underground bunker that can survive any meteor attack. Will stock it with non perishable food to last 35 years. The only thing visible from outside will be my dish antenna. The area surrounding the bunker will be heavily fortified with land mine. Coupled that with guns and ammos I will bring to the bunker will ensure safety from others fleeing the earth shattering meteor strike.
 
REWahoo said:
No change here. None of us will survive retirement anyhow...
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Some of the threads in the healthcare and money sections lead me to believe a few here think they can outrun both the grim reaper and the taxman.

All things considered, getting crunched by an asteroid isn't a bad way to go. :)
 
I predict it will hit the day after I win the lottery.
 
MichaelB said:
All things considered, getting crunched by an asteroid isn't a bad way to go. :)
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Hah! If you are so lucky!

For 99.9% of the people who are not in the impact zone, they will perish by fire or falling debris, getting buried alive by mudslides, churned by tsunami, drown by flood. It's excruciating death!

I plan to exit this cruel world clutching my bottle of expensive Cognac. I hope it will dull the pain.
 
I must be getting both old and more curmudgeonly. No, no, no the odds of being hit by a meteor have not increased. That could happen for example if the earth passed through the debris cloud left by a comet or some other region of space where we believe there are more objects transiting than usual. But this story is not that the odds have changed, but that scientists believe they have a new better way to calculate the odds, and the new method gives a higher estimate than the old method. The odds are no different than they were before, just the estimate has changed.
 
Well, all I can say is that if I win the lottery you'd better still duck!
 
Just to be a wise a$$....

The odds have not changed at all... they are the same as before... we have just gotten better data and have changed what we THOUGHT they were...
 
Just to throw some fake numerical rigor into the pile let's see...

If 1500 people are injured every 150 years then that's about 10 injuries per year on average.... out of 7 billion people or about odds of 1.5 e-9 per year. Now that the "odds" have been determined to be 6 times worse it's still about 1 e-8 per year or less than 1 in a million odds of even being injured even during a very long 50 year retirement (and presumably the odds of actually being killed are far lower still).

In other words virtually any minute change you make in your life or habits will have a greater effect on your expected longevity than risk of asteroid impact.
 
Set Serious = ON

Want to save the planet? Donate to the B612 Foundation (for those who watch Scandal, 'B612' is not a joke). Their mission is to locate and catalog asteroids over a specific size which will pass within a specific distance of earth. Such asteroids are detectable decades before they intersect earth orbit. That gives us puny earthlings time to launch a spacecraft of sufficient mass, which depends on the asteroids size and where it can be intercepted, and ram the spacecraft into the asteroid. The minute deflection angle achieved will make the asteroid pass us by.

No government is watching for asteroids. A private foundations, with enough big league scientists and former astronauts that no one questions their credibility, is raising money. The technology to do all of this has already been used in space as part of other missions. All the foundation needs is the money to build a space telescope, the infrastructure to support it and analyze data. It's expected once they find a big rock with our name on it, government(s) with a space program will step up to nudge the asteroid.

Links to stories from major news organizations: https://b612foundation.org/newsroom/

The first step is to begin cataloging: https://b612foundation.org/sentinel-mission/
 
Honestly, with everything else there is to worry about, I just can't get up the strength to worry about asteroids too. Hemorrhoids maybe, but asteroids no.
 
CaliforniaMan said:
Honestly, with everything else there is to worry about, I just can't get up the strength to worry about asteroids too. Hemorrhoids maybe, but asteroids no.
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You're right, there is nothing to worry about during our lifetimes. The odds of an asteroid turning a city into a smoking hole or causing the planet-wide deaths of most life forms during our lifetimes are infinitesimal. However, the odds of it happening between now and the extinction of homo sapiens approaches 100%.

Close passing asteroids are currently spotted a few years out, IIRC. That's not enough time to deflect them using current technology. It may be possible in the future. Until then, why not start an asteroid catalog to be handed to each subsequent generation, and, in the ultra rare possibility of finding one that will strike earth, deflect it?
 
I think we should set a date to revisit this issue - maybe 2114? If we have affordable tech to effectively defend against these bad boys maybe we can deploy it. If not, tune out for another century.

If, against all odds, we get whacked by a planet buster tomorrow we call all console ourselves with the thought that we couldn't have done anything about it. Maybe we can contemplate whether we have been worshipping the right god(s) as we whither away.
 
Think of it as a rather harshly graded pass-fail exam. You either develop the language, tools, cooperation, technology, and so on to get yourselves off this rock and/or defend it from planet busters, or you fail and the next evolution gets their chance. It's a built in (somewhat random) time limit. Perhaps UFOs are full of exam proctors, curious about how we are doing and running a betting pool on whether we will make it.
 
It's more likely that human beings will seal their own fate (nuclear war/accident, destruction of climate, depleting key resource, ....). I give human race less than 200 years to self destruct. Contradict me in 200 years ;).
 
stepford said:
Just to throw some fake numerical rigor into the pile let's see...

If 1500 people are injured every 150 years then that's about 10 injuries per year on average.... out of 7 billion people or about odds of 1.5 e-9 per year. Now that the "odds" have been determined to be 6 times worse it's still about 1 e-8 per year or less than 1 in a million odds of even being injured even during a very long 50 year retirement (and presumably the odds of actually being killed are far lower still).

In other words virtually any minute change you make in your life or habits will have a greater effect on your expected longevity than risk of asteroid impact.
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The problem is that historical numbers over a short period just does not cut it for the real risk.... we went to see meteor crater... expensive for what it is, but it was a nice visit...

Meteor Crater - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Now, if one of these hit NYC, London, Mexico City, Tokyo etc.... well, there would be millions of dead....


Then ask the dinosaurs.... who, according to Wiki were.. "They first appeared during the Triassic period, 231.4 million years ago, and were the dominant terrestrial vertebrates for 135 million years"... much longer than man had been around.... (say 50,000 years for us).... they were basically wiped out by one meteor....


Now, I am not going to lose any sleep thinking about this.... but the small odds you state are not meaningful....



OH... just thought of something else on the falsehood of stats... remember the Concord:confused: There were so few of them that there were not that many miles on the fleet.... so they were the safest passenger plane to fly on just prior to that one crashing.... after that ONE crash, they were the least safest passenger plane to fly on.....
 
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