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Oil - Gas
Old 03-27-2014, 01:30 PM   #1
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Oil - Gas

The longest winter ever has me so cabin fever stressed, that I have given up on today and tomorrow, and am looking into the Crystal Ball for the coming months and years.

Top of my worry list is Oil and Gas... and not those in the Gallup Poll list shown, below, or even politics, global warming, nuclear holocaust or going broke.

To kick it off, here's the basic reason...
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2241rank.html

.... and knowing the level of stability of the nations on the list.
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Old 03-27-2014, 04:32 PM   #2
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Not sure what your basis is, since fracking began it seems oil & gas supply has fallen off most Americans (and others to a lesser extent) 'worry radar.' And petroleum geopolitics have changed significantly and that won't change again soon unless - environmental issues could derail fracking, but so far that concern doesn't seem to have much traction.

I agree it may well become an issue eventually, but when has seemingly been substantially postponed. Lots of articles to that effect, here's one example As Fracking Rises, Peak Oil Theory Slowly Dies - Forbes.
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Old 03-27-2014, 04:52 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
The longest winter ever has me so cabin fever stressed, that I have given up on today and tomorrow, and am looking into the Crystal Ball for the coming months and years.

Top of my worry list is Oil and Gas... and not those in the Gallup Poll list shown, below, or even politics, global warming, nuclear holocaust or going broke.
I guess that explains why you didn't make the 3-1 positivity ratio .. you worry too much Grumpy Old People
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Old 03-27-2014, 05:04 PM   #4
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Not sure what your basis is, since fracking began it seems oil & gas supply has fallen off most Americans (and others to a lesser extent) 'concern radar.' Petroleum geopolitics have changed significantly for now at least. Environmental issues could derail fracking, but so far that concern doesn't seem to have much traction.

I agree it may well become an issue eventually, but when has seemingly been substantially postponed. Lots of articles to that effect, here's one example As Fracking Rises, Peak Oil Theory Slowly Dies - Forbes.
We have been "fracing" wells in the U.S. since the 1940s and earlier. Now we are using more modern techniques and at much deeper depths below ground surface than earlier years. It's done all over the world and if the rock formations containg the hydrocarbons were not fractured, the amount of oil/gas/water recovered would make exploration prohibitive in most instances. You wouldn't even be able to afford to drive your Prius if that happened.
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Old 03-27-2014, 06:04 PM   #5
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I guess that explains why you didn't make the 3-1 positivity ratio .. you worry too much Grumpy Old People
Ya got me pegged...
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Old 03-27-2014, 07:15 PM   #6
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To kick it off, here's the basic reason...
https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../2241rank.html

.... and knowing the level of stability of the nations on the list.
Here's what got me concerned: #17 on the list. I don't know what would be more cause for worry:
-- That the European Union is a country
-- That the lead analytical entity in the US intelligence community thinks the EU is a country
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Old 03-27-2014, 08:10 PM   #7
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Eh, buy some oil and gas equities and laugh all the way to the bank.
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Old 03-27-2014, 09:11 PM   #8
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International political relationships and/or national stability.
3 Russia
4 China
6 Iran
8 Iraq
11Brazil
12 Nigeria
13 Venezeula
15 Algeria
16 Angola

Gallup Poll puts energy at #10 out of 15 major concerns. IMHO, moved it up a bit.
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Old 03-27-2014, 09:13 PM   #9
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International political relationships and/or national stability.
3 Russia
4 China
6 Iran
8 Iraq
11Brazil
12 Nigeria
13 Venezeula
15 Algeria
16 Angola
The more things change, the more they stay the same. You forgot North Korea.

I'd buy some domestic oil stocks and forget about the noise.
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Old 03-27-2014, 09:17 PM   #10
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N Korea # 184 in oil production

My concern has nothing to do with stock prices...
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Old 03-27-2014, 09:32 PM   #11
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I was way more worried when it looked like China might be competing with us for limited oil resources. That could have been interesting. The U.S. supply seems much more secure now.

I do have an energy allocation, but it looks like a little early, as usual. Still, it's been doing OK as an investment and was somewhat comforting back when stocks used to react strongly to oil prices.
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Old 03-27-2014, 09:41 PM   #12
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Am less concerned about domestic supply... Canada and US would be ok, but international disruption at any level, anywhere is a concern... US is not an isolationist country... Consider the options for Gazprom even today.


Hmmm. I smell bacon

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Old 03-28-2014, 09:09 AM   #13
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There will always be these geopolitical risks. I think the question is how it might affect me here. Given the freedom of the market for pricing gasoline, if there was a problem somewhere we should expect to see the price increase. Between two cars, we use about 500 gallons a year. At $3 a gallon, that is $1500. If gas went to $9 gal this would be $4500. This isn't a significant sum to me. However, I understand that depending on how much margin folks have in their budget, this could be more important to them.
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Old 03-28-2014, 10:27 AM   #14
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There will always be these geopolitical risks. I think the question is how it might affect me here.
Of course the money we pay at the pump is only a fraction of the total we pay for fuel. The price of fuel is built into every good and service we purchase, so a big jump in fuel prices increases the cost of everything. And when the economy inevitably slows down due to higher energy prices, stock dividends and prices will also be reduced--I'd feel that. When more people are out of work, there are social costs, reduced tax revenues, and government spending associated with that.

I drive less than 5000 miles per year now, but if fuel prices tripled I know would still be affected.
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Old 03-28-2014, 12:07 PM   #15
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I have vivid memories of 1973. While I was w*rking to feed the family, DW, with four kids, would spend 1 to 2 hours in the station wagon... in the mile long line, to get gas. It was common then, to shut off the engine while in line, and to get out and push the car the next 20 feet to move up.

Here's an interesting account of what happened, and what happened after it happened.

"Kids today...they have no idea..."

Background: What caused the 1970s oil price shock? | Environment | theguardian.com

(the British version... more readable than the Wiki or Financial News versions)

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There were a series of energy crises between 1967 and 1979 caused by problems in the Middle East but the most significant started in 1973 when Arab oil producers imposed an embargo.
Even as I am writing this, the president is speaking with Saudi Arabia.
Push often comes to shove, before anyone knows it is happening.
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