Oil / Gas price. Supply and demand.

Ed_The_Gypsy said:
Me, too, Marshac, for different reasons.  I work for the 'pushers' of this 'drug'.  My income depends on them investing in plants and equipment.  Adjusted for inflation, we still have not equalled the historic highs for oil prices. 
I've read that we're much less energy-dependent (on petroleum, anyway) than we were in the 1970s. Presumably some of that is despite the crash of prices in the 1980s, so a big drop in oil prices won't necessarily bring all research & improvements to a screeching halt.

But it'll certainly help you figure out if you're working for a lean & mean company...
 
Nords said:
I've read that we're much less energy-dependent (on petroleum, anyway) than we were in the 1970s. Presumably some of that is despite the crash of prices in the 1980s, so a big drop in oil prices won't necessarily bring all research & improvements to a screeching halt.

I don't know about being less dependent, but I have read we that we are much more efficient while our demand has still risen.
 
Leonidas said:
I don't know about being less dependent, but I have read we that we are much more efficient while our demand has still risen.

That, and a lot of manufacturing has been moved overseas.
 
We may be less dependant on petroleum. However, we are more dependant on foreign oil compared to domestic than we were in the 70s.
 
Khan said:
That, and a lot of manufacturing has been moved overseas.

I can't figure out how to post the charts, but of the manufacturing and exporting economies, Japan seems to have the greatest GDP per BTU.

The US has some important disadvatages in this arena- for one thing we are very spread out geographically. Just off the top of my head, 70% of our crude goes to tranportation fuel.

Ha
 
I'm hoping it doesn't go any lower than $50. Americans are finally demanding better mpg, and real money is being spent to develop domestic energy supplies and alternative fuels.... if crude goes too low, I fear that industry will simply say "whew, glad that nightmare is over with" and continue on as before....

Yes, that's probably already happening. Perhaps a stiff tax on gas, with the tax revenue funding alt energy research. Looks like Prop 87 here in California is something along those lines. We'll see what happens.
 
HaHa said:
The US has some important disadvatages in this arena- for one thing we are very spread out geographically. Just off the top of my head, 70% of our crude goes to tranportation fuel.

Well, I thought 70% was high, but looked it up at the DOE website and found that it is actually more than 91%. That's just crude. Expressed as a percentage of total petroluem consumption it is about 66%. Transportation only accounts for 28% of all energy consumption (which includes "coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, conventional hydroelectric power, wood, waste, alcohol fuels, geothermal, solar, wind, coal coke net imports, electricity net imports, electricity retail sales, and electrical system energy losses").

HaHa said:
I can't figure out how to post the charts, but of the manufacturing and exporting economies, Japan seems to have the greatest GDP per BTU.

How about this one?

800px-Gdp-energy-efficiency.jpg


It looks like we're the most productive nation. And more energy efficient than Canada, which is only slightly less wasteful than Ukraine, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
 
Leonidas said:
It looks like we're the most productive nation. And more energy efficient than Canada, which is only slightly less wasteful than Ukraine, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Nice chart. We may be most productive, but we are in the goats' corner when it comes to energy efficiency. Energy efficiency is a tricky concept. Countries like Switzerland and Austria are quite high but they don't make much of anything that would use much energy, and they are geographically small. I don't know much about the Hong Kong economy- I don’t suppose it has much in the way of heavy industry either, and it is obviously geographically small. Banking and real estate and tourism don't burn a lot of BTUs. Italy is similar, very efficient but not very industrial. Japan and Germany look excellent; they make stuff, good stuff, and they make it with an efficient use of BTUs. Plus it gets cold in those 2 countries, so they have to deal with that also.

What is with the Philippines? Would someone who is familiar with life over there comment on the very high energy efficiency?

Ha
 
HaHa said:
What is with the Philippines? Would someone who is familiar with life over there comment on the very high energy efficiency?
Again I can't help wonder about the study methodology. Maybe the guy who owns the PI generator charges people a lot of money to use it, so they try not to.

When you can't afford electricity you're probably very highly energy efficient.
 
Also, I am having trouble deciphering the original question. The Philippines (I live there) is at the bottom of the list for productivity. A great deal of work is done manually because of low availability of capital to buy machines and use more BTU's

Also, our electricity here is second only to Japan for the highest cost in the world, so the average American would have a real problem getting used to moving from the cheapest to the most expensive.

IMO the US's biggest problem is the government's insistence on oil as virtually the only energy solution. The average alternative energy article in the news media parrots facts from 20 or 30 years ago ... solar is not cost-effective, wind isn't efficient enough ... geothermal is too hard to harness, etc., etc. great strides have been made in alternative technologies but the oil companies still by massive amounts of TV time to brag about how they are searching for new places to drill ... and the past few administrations (both parties folks, I'm nor bashing Red or Blue) have effectively done nothing to promote anything except oil, oil and more oil.

Since the Philippines still tends to slavishly copy everything US we're doing a terrible job here in pushing out alternative sources, but with about 5 times the solar power budget of the Northern US and huge opportunities in geothermal perhaps someday soon ....
 
HaHa said:
What is with the Philippines? Would someone who is familiar with life over there comment on the very high energy efficiency?

It looks like RP finally arrived and has provided us with an answer from the P.I. viewpoint.

RP said:
A great deal of work is done manually because of low availability of capital to buy machines and use more BTU's...Also, our electricity here is second only to Japan for the highest cost in the world, so the average American would have a real problem getting used to moving from the cheapest to the most expensive.

So Nords was on the money - the guy supplying the power is charging high prices.

RP said:
IMO the US's biggest problem is the government's insistence on oil as virtually the only energy solution. The average alternative energy article in the news media parrots facts from 20 or 30 years ago ... solar is not cost-effective, wind isn't efficient enough ... geothermal is too hard to harness, etc., etc. great strides have been made in alternative technologies but the oil companies still by massive amounts of TV time to brag about how they are searching for new places to drill ... and the past few administrations (both parties folks, I'm nor bashing Red or Blue) have effectively done nothing to promote anything except oil, oil and more oil.

Things are changing here and there. I travel several hundred miles down Interstate 10 in Texas on a regular basis, and starting several years ago I noticed trucks hauling giant windmill blades toward the West. I eventually got curious enough to find out what was going on and learned that Texas has mandated that 5% of all electricity used in the state come from wind power (with proposals to increase it to as much as 20%).

Reliance of petroleum as a primary energy source is not going to end anytime soon. The worldwide demand for energy is increasing.

meeting_chart02.gif


When I look at the chart I posted back in September, I see a lot of countries that very productive and are also major importers of petroleum. Some more efficient than others in how they use it, but the major developed countries are all pretty close to each other. Then there are all the unproductive countries, some who are oil exporters (and very inefficient users of energy) or they can't afford very much energy.

800px-Gdp-energy-efficiency.jpg


You might be particularly interested to notice that China and India will become huge users of energy in the next two decades, as demand around the world continues to grow. Where is it all going to come from? I'm not going to predict the future, but I think it's very interesting to note that both China and India will have aircraft carriers in their fleets within just a few years. They both have homegrown versions in various stages of planning or development, but both have bought carriers at the Russian's yard sale that they are refurbishing.

Aircraft carriers do one thing very well - project power and influence far from home shores. I think both countries are concerned with securing oil supply routes on the seas.

All that means that the Phillipines needs to get to work on developing some alternative means of energy or be stuck with an economy that is marked by low productivity.
 
Leonidas said:
I travel several hundred miles down Interstate 10 in Texas on a regular basis, and starting several years ago I noticed trucks hauling giant windmill blades toward the West. I eventually got curious enough to find out what was going on and learned that Texas has mandated that 5% of all electricity used in the state come from wind power (with proposals to increase it to as much as 20%).

According to http://www.seco.cpa.state.tx.us/re_wind.htm,

"Texas is now the largest wind energy producer in the nation with an installed wind generating capacity at 2,370 MW, which is enough power for 600,000 average-sized homes a year. Currently there are about 1,600 wind farms in West Texas alone, and the numbers continue to increase as development costs continue to drop and wind turbine technology improves."

For the past year I have been purchasing wind generated power, an option our electric co-op offers. Prior to the run up in oil prices last year, wind generated power was slightly higher in price, but that's no longer the case. I know there are subsidies and tax breaks holding down the rates, but I'm happy no Saudi prince is benefiting whenever I turn on the AC.
 
Yep - we notice blades and other pieces of windmills going down I-10 a lot too. They're HUGE. Then you drive out towards Fort Stockton, and ridge tops are covered with them.

Audrey
 
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