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Old 07-27-2010, 02:48 PM   #41
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If the impact is minimal, they'll have to give Tony Hayward his job back.
...along with his life.
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Old 07-27-2010, 02:50 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
If the impact is minimal, they'll have to give Tony Hayward his job back.
...and a nice big bonus for being CEO when BP earned the tax credit ReWahoo brought up here:

Taxpayers footing half the cost of BP's $20B damage claim fund?
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Old 07-27-2010, 08:19 PM   #43
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So, there was this giant oil slick - the size of Kansas - floating around out there in the GOM. And now? BP Oil Spill: Where Did All The Crude Go? Mother Nature Breaks Down Slick in Gulf of Mexico - ABC News
I saw a bit of that on Good Morning America, was going to post here but got new appliances delivered today, so I've been busy. But I wanted to try to put it into perspective, so I did a few calculations:

The GOM contains 6.6EE17 gallons of water.

The high end of the spill estimate on wiki is 180EE6 gallons of oil.

An Olympic Swimming pool contains a minimum of 660,000 Gallons (6.6EE5 gallons)

That means an Olympic pool is 1 trillionth the volume of the GOM (EE17-EE5 = EE12 = trillion).

And, one trillionth of the oil spill is .00018 gallons. At 768 teaspoons per gallon, that amounts to .138 teaspoons of oil in an Olympic pool. Or 10 1/2 drops according to a cooking conversion site.


So imagine 10 1/2 drops of crude oil in an Olympic size pool.

I wouldn't be surprised if nature just absorbed most of it and went on with life with a big yawn. Of course, if a portion of that oil hits a concentrated area, it is going to do some damage, and that is bad and we should prevent it from ever happening. But I still found the perspective interesting. And you'd also need to scale the size of the beaches for comparison (not 1/trillionth since we are talking length rather than volume).

I'm also not sure if that high end estimate of the spill was reduced by whatever they collected, so 10 1/2 drops might be overstating it.

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Old 07-27-2010, 11:44 PM   #44
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I saw a bit of that on Good Morning America, was going to post here but got new appliances delivered today, so I've been busy. But I wanted to try to put it into perspective, so I did a few calculations:

The GOM contains 6.6EE17 gallons of water.

The high end of the spill estimate on wiki is 180EE6 gallons of oil.

An Olympic Swimming pool contains a minimum of 660,000 Gallons (6.6EE5 gallons)

That means an Olympic pool is 1 trillionth the volume of the GOM (EE17-EE5 = EE12 = trillion).

And, one trillionth of the oil spill is .00018 gallons. At 768 teaspoons per gallon, that amounts to .138 teaspoons of oil in an Olympic pool. Or 10 1/2 drops according to a cooking conversion site.


So imagine 10 1/2 drops of crude oil in an Olympic size pool.

I wouldn't be surprised if nature just absorbed most of it and went on with life with a big yawn. Of course, if a portion of that oil hits a concentrated area, it is going to do some damage, and that is bad and we should prevent it from ever happening. But I still found the perspective interesting. And you'd also need to scale the size of the beaches for comparison (not 1/trillionth since we are talking length rather than volume).

I'm also not sure if that high end estimate of the spill was reduced by whatever they collected, so 10 1/2 drops might be overstating it.

-ERD50
Unless, of course, that you had to drink from that pool, and the oil was urine instead, and the guy that p*ssed in your drinking water was a rich b****rd who could care less. How does that math work?
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Old 07-28-2010, 09:30 AM   #45
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ERD.... I would say your analysis is flawed a bit... you are using volume when the oil is almost always on the surface...

Do the math based on suface area of the GOM to a depth of say 1 ft... then tell me how much oil we need to put in the pool to get the same coverage... I bet it is more than a few drops...
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Old 07-28-2010, 09:52 AM   #46
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Unless, of course, that you had to drink from that pool, and the oil was urine instead, and the guy that p*ssed in your drinking water was a rich b****rd who could care less. How does that math work?
It doesn't change the math at all. And I'd be a lot more concerned with the chlorine levels and dead skin cells and other junk in that water than 10.5 drops of urine diluted to 0.27 parts per Billion. I wouldn't want to drink pool water OR (pre-spill) GOM water - yuck!

Those ppB numbers assume total dispersion, which isn't going to happen, but it does provide some perspective - remember that the EPA wanted to verify that the A-Whale wouldn't exceed 15ppM of oil output, so that is acceptable to the EPA, and that is ~ 55,000 x the theoretical number we are talking about.

A quick google indicated (I didn't check the refs, just skimming results) that the standards for things like arsenic, lead and atrazine are 10 to hundreds of times higher than that.

I thought I was clear - some areas will be far more concentrated and there is damage done and it (probably) never should have happened, and there definitely should have been a containment plan. I'd blame both BP and the Govt regulators for that, but then I'd be outside the bounds of T-Al's title for this thread, and I wouldn't want to do that.

I'm just pointing out that it seems the experts are saying that the oil that is remaining in the Gulf waters seems to be diluted enough at this point that nature is processing it. That's a good thing. But the spill itself and the damage done is a bad thing - no question about that for me.

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Old 07-28-2010, 11:31 AM   #47
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Today the skimmers are still looking for the oil. What I have not read anywhere is what percentage of "gush" from the uncontrolled well was oil and what was gas. Much of the gas either dissolved into the GOM or rose to the surface and became part of the atmosphere then breaking down.

The guesses of how much oil was ejected into the GOM seem to have assumed that all of it was crude oil. Me thinks it was 50/50. No basis in fact for that guess, absent any official numbers that is as good as any.

Anyone have real numbers?
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Old 07-28-2010, 09:59 PM   #48
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ERD.... I would say your analysis is flawed a bit... you are using volume when the oil is almost always on the surface...

Do the math based on suface area of the GOM to a depth of say 1 ft... then tell me how much oil we need to put in the pool to get the same coverage... I bet it is more than a few drops...
It depends what you are looking for I guess. The oil is getting mixed in with currents and waves, and it is getting denser as the volatiles evaporate, so it might mix much more than 1 foot. I don't know, but they are reporting that it seems to be getting eaten up biologically.

But I agree that we should compare on surface area, for another perspective. I tried running numbers on surface area, but something is not matching up between two different calcs. I will look at it fresh later, the spreadsheet is getting blurry the more I stare .

-ERD50
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Old 07-29-2010, 07:40 AM   #49
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oil and water are immiscible.

highly improbable that any resulting density of a hydrocarbon product after the lighter ends "evaporate" would be greater than the density of seawater under these conditions.

anyone scrutinizing the flowrate estimates WAG's? maybe they are less than thought?

how ever this is happening...it's all a good thing. i saw cnn this morning saying none the marine life the gummit has tested is positive for oil...
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:01 AM   #50
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surprisingly, time mag is bordering on cranking out some journalism...

The BP Spill: Has the Damage Been Exaggerated? - TIME

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The scientists I spoke with cite four basic reasons the initial eco-fears seem overblown. First, the Deepwater Horizon oil, unlike the black glop from the Valdez, is comparatively light and degradable, which is why the slick in the Gulf is dissolving surprisingly rapidly now that the gusher has been capped. Second, the Gulf of Mexico, unlike Prince William Sound, is balmy at more than 85 degrees, which also helps bacteria break down oil. Third, heavy flows of Mississippi River water helped keep the oil away from the coast, where it can do much more damage. Finally, Mother Nature can be incredibly resilient. Van Heerden's assessment team showed me around Casse-tete Island in Timbalier Bay, where new shoots of spartina grasses were sprouting in oiled marshes, and new leaves were growing on the first black mangroves I had ever seen that were actually black. "It comes back fast, doesn't it?" Van Heerden said.
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:59 AM   #51
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surprisingly, time mag is bordering on cranking out some journalism...

The BP Spill: Has the Damage Been Exaggerated? - TIME
Interesting read. This line grabbed me:

Quote:
he predicts that the oil will destroy fewer marshes than the airboats deployed to clean up the oil.
Yikes! There's some irony for you. But it happens all over with environmental issues, people fail to account for the consequences - for example, no Nukes means more Coal in most cases.

OTOH, I hope this doesn't now swing the other way, and everyone forgets about it in another week (when the journalists will need to find another disaster to write about). The regulators need to get serious about the requirements for preventative measures and quickly deployable containment measures when the preventive measures fail. And it won't take a dime of taxpayer money - charge the oil companies fees to support the regulator expenses. The same way I pay for a building permit which funds the building inspectors. That puts the cost back on the customers of the product, which is where it should be.

-ERD50
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Old 07-29-2010, 09:16 AM   #52
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OTOH, I hope this doesn't now swing the other way, and everyone forgets about it in another week (when the journalists will need to find another disaster to write about). The regulators need to get serious about the requirements for preventative measures and quickly deployable containment measures when the preventive measures fail. And it won't take a dime of taxpayer money - charge the oil companies fees to support the regulator expenses. The same way I pay for a building permit which funds the building inspectors. That puts the cost back on the customers of the product, which is where it should be.

-ERD50
i think the "Big 4" are hoping this quells some worries...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/22/bu...2response.html

Quote:
The four companies said their initiative would seek to include all the companies involved in offshore drilling in the gulf, including BP. Their initial financing of $250 million each will be used to build a set of containment equipment, like underwater systems and pipelines, that will be able to deal with a variety of deepwater problems and can be deployed rapidly in the event of a spill.
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Old 07-29-2010, 05:52 PM   #53
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Well, I for one hope the new optimism on the oil degradation is accurate. But I think the reason so many people are questioning the validity of these claims is that there was such a lack of transparency and cooperation on the part of both BP and the Federales during the capping and cleaning process. Of course, some will claim things are worse than they really are in the hopes of getting more money out of BP. And BP will claim things are better than they really are in order to minimize their costs and to try to salvage a little reputation. It will be be interesting to look back on it in a couple of years and see how it turned out.
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