Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Peak Oil?
Old 11-01-2014, 12:44 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 4,616
Peak Oil?

"OK, does it bother anybody else that the mime is talking? FREAKY!!! "

From the $5 to $10 per gallon gas that was predicted just a few years ago, to self sufficiency today.

A clear, sane explanation?
__________________

__________________
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-01-2014, 01:31 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Supply and demand controls the short term prices. A small oversupply or shortage has huge forces on price. Some producers overseas have to sell at any price , just to pay the bills , and are reluctant to pull off production in an attempt to stabilize price.

The US is no where near self sufficient on oil.

PEAK OIL describes the peak production point of all the oil that can be produced ( All the oil that has been produced from the known sources) It can be pushed foreword many many years or decades , with a steeper decline thereafter.

Lots of oil still left to recover, not many finds from places not known to have oil. The rate of discovery is less than the rate of depletion.



It took hundreds of millions of years to "Make" the oil, and a few hundred years to use the easy oil.

Full disclosure : poster owns shares of those immoral polluting dirty oil companies
__________________

__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 01:49 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Another factor for US retail gasoline and diesel/fuel oil prices. Most of the cost of gasoline and diesel is crude oil , with the US importing currently 40 % , a strong dollar has a real effect on crude prices.

Enjoy the lower prices
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 01:49 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,334
Peak Oil's move farther into the future makes my purchase of a hybrid auto a little less smart. It looks like my break even point will move from about 5 years to as much as 7 years if this keeps up.

Hopefully there will be some type of oil crisis with prices near $5 a barrel so my break even point improves.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 02:10 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 4,616
Re: Lakewood90712...A good succinct answer in the shortest possible words. And I agree.

I used to work (indirectly) for Mobil and sat in a few meetings with Rawleigh Warner.
Here's a bit from Mobil... from last January.
US to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2020: Exxon Mobil CEO

I guess the part that bothers me, is that the media slips from disaster to glory, without batting an eyelash.

So now, who do we believe? What happens when ISIL wipes out a few wells, or the Saudis change a few political commitments?

How many tankers are stacked, backed up? Is the Federal Emergency Reserve Full? Who hears about Eagle Ford, Bakken, Marcellus Shale and whether the known energy reserves are going up or down.

In short, how much do we know about what was arguably the underlying reason for intervention in Iraq? Despite spending and defending, with $$$ and lives, what do we really know about was was just recently THE defining concern for the future of the U.S.
__________________
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 02:23 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
"In short, how much do we know about what was arguably the underlying reason for intervention in Iraq? "

"Nation Building"?

I thought this thread was about oil prices.
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 04:20 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 4,616
you're right... got carried away...
__________________
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 04:56 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,914
Right now the profit is in refineries.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 05:13 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 152
ISIS is flooding the market to fund the war.
__________________
user5027 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 06:56 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by user5027 View Post
ISIS is flooding the market to fund the war.
It's such a small amount, I would not call it "Flooding the market" , but oil captured by ISIS is getting to market thru Turkey, and Turkey seems to ignore it. So much for our US Allies in the region .
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 07:18 PM   #11
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,166
The Saudi's don't have the swing power they used to. Their big fields are in waterflood and they have not embraced horizontal drilling. They also have not found any new big fields.

There will be fighting in the Middle East for the foreseeable future as there has been since recorded history. A few million barrels of oil per day held hostage by them is becoming trivial in the big scheme of world inventory.

It's a good time to work in the oil & gas industry in the U.S. and Canada. I love it.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 10:51 PM   #12
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 16,544
I've been hearing about "peak oil" since I was 20 years old. I'm now 64 and haven't seen it yet.

There is a credibility gap.
__________________
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2014, 11:25 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Brat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 5,914
Quote:
Originally Posted by user5027 View Post
ISIS is flooding the market to fund the war.
That could well be.

I heard an analysis today on NPR where one of those think-tank guys said that ISIS is running a huge deficit trying to manage territory. He described ISIS's military pay structure... so much per year for an infantry man, add to that dependent's allotments (many have more than one wife each with children), electricity in a major town they hold has always been free, then there are hospitals and schools to fund.. They control oil fields and need to pump like crazy to make ends meet.


It's a crazy world...
__________________
Duck bjorn.
Brat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 02:07 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brat View Post
That could well be.

I heard an analysis today on NPR where one of those think-tank guys said that ISIS is running a huge deficit trying to manage territory. He described ISIS's military pay structure... so much per year for an infantry man, add to that dependent's allotments (many have more than one wife each with children), electricity in a major town they hold has always been free, then there are hospitals and schools to fund.. They control oil fields and need to pump like crazy to make ends meet.


It's a crazy world...
I would not be surprised if the more savvy paid combatants demand to be paid in US currency.
__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 05:54 AM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,213
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34 View Post
I've been hearing about "peak oil" since I was 20 years old. I'm now 64 and haven't seen it yet.

There is a credibility gap.
To be fair peak oil was reached in the United States in the 1970s as predicted by Hubbard (when you were 20 ), and most of the reason the peak has been delayed is due to better extraction technologies.

As for the long term, well. As they say: "the stone age came to an end not for lack of stones". Just as well, the alternative is not so good.

Peak oil/gas demand will be the real cause of peak oil/gas production. Investments are being scaled back quite a lot in the world, a.o. because of that effect already taking hold.

Disclosure: I also hold some oil/gas shares. The oil era will end eventually, but there's still good money to be made I believe in the mean time.
__________________
Totoro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 08:32 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
To be fair peak oil was reached in the United States in the 1970s as predicted by Hubbard (when you were 20 ), and most of the reason the peak has been delayed is due to better extraction technologies.

As for the long term, well. As they say: "the stone age came to an end not for lack of stones". Just as well, the alternative is not so good.

Peak oil/gas demand will be the real cause of peak oil/gas production. Investments are being scaled back quite a lot in the world, a.o. because of that effect already taking hold.

Disclosure: I also hold some oil/gas shares. The oil era will end eventually, but there's still good money to be made I believe in the mean time.
+1. Fossil fuels demand will outstrip supply eventually, but it now appears it'll be (much) later thanks to fracking and other geopolitical developments. Where I once expected major changes in my lifetime, now I wouldn't be surprised it it comes later, who knows.

I also hold oil/gas (VGELX) but I don't expect it to be the no-brainer I once thought, and it was always a bet on the character of consumers more than the value of oil/gas IMO.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 08:48 AM   #17
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
+1. Fossil fuels demand will outstrip supply eventually, but it now appears it'll be (much) later thanks to fracking and other geopolitical developments. Where I once expected major changes in my lifetime, now I wouldn't be surprised it it comes later, who knows.

I also hold oil/gas (VGELX) but I don't expect it to be the no-brainer I once thought, and it was always a bet on the character of consumers more than the value of oil/gas IMO.
Point of clarification: We have been "fracking" wells since earlier than 1940. What's provided the largest improvement in extraction of existing oil and gas has been the perfection of horizontal drilling techniques and, on a smaller scale, the ability to drill in deeper offshore waters.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 10:11 AM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,977
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Point of clarification: We have been "fracking" wells since earlier than 1940. What's provided the largest improvement in extraction of existing oil and gas has been the perfection of horizontal drilling techniques and, on a smaller scale, the ability to drill in deeper offshore waters.
I thought they went hand in hand but I see you're right - thanks for the correction. US production has changed dramatically to say the least.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg usoil.jpg (44.9 KB, 14 views)
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 01:25 PM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: seattle
Posts: 643
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
Point of clarification: We have been "fracking" wells since earlier than 1940. What's provided the largest improvement in extraction of existing oil and gas has been the perfection of horizontal drilling techniques and, on a smaller scale, the ability to drill in deeper offshore waters.
The term "fracking" is used so readily in the media and conversation, it has become almost a proxy for any endeavor involved in oil or gas drilling, adding to people's confusion. The sounds the word makes rolling off the tongue can be made to sound aggressive and sinister, giving it a larger role in drilling opposition statements.

An article appeared in the New Yorker magazine in 2011 detailing some of the story of the Bakken shale area, containing this quote that summarized for me the utility and near magic of horizontal drilling:

"Horizontal drilling has become extraordinarily precise. “If your house was ten thousand feet underground, these guys could bring a drill bit through the front door and out the back,” an oil-industry blogger wrote last year. Increasingly sophisticated sensors provide hundreds of calculations per minute as a drill bores ahead, dictating the angle at which to adjust the bit in order to maintain a graceful curve that won’t kink the pipe."


In spite of the range of issues that twist some people's tails about this latest frenzy of us oil production, this is technically pretty cool stuff, imo.

Kuwait on the Prairie - The New Yorker
__________________
bld999 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-02-2014, 02:13 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,316
Quote:
Originally Posted by bld999 View Post
The term "fracking" is used so readily in the media and conversation, it has become almost a proxy for any endeavor involved in oil or gas drilling, adding to people's confusion. The sounds the word makes rolling off the tongue can be made to sound aggressive and sinister, giving it a larger role in drilling opposition statements.

An article appeared in the New Yorker magazine in 2011 detailing some of the story of the Bakken shale area, containing this quote that summarized for me the utility and near magic of horizontal drilling:

"Horizontal drilling has become extraordinarily precise. “If your house was ten thousand feet underground, these guys could bring a drill bit through the front door and out the back,” an oil-industry blogger wrote last year. Increasingly sophisticated sensors provide hundreds of calculations per minute as a drill bores ahead, dictating the angle at which to adjust the bit in order to maintain a graceful curve that won’t kink the pipe."


In spite of the range of issues that twist some people's tails about this latest frenzy of us oil production, this is technically pretty cool stuff, imo.

Kuwait on the Prairie - The New Yorker
The only beef I have with widespread use of fracking is the huge amount of fresh water used , drawing down aquifers. Disposal of the fluid is no problem, as a lot of the holes drilled don't result in a productive well , so the contaminated water is put down those abandoned holes. I am satisfied with the safety of that.

We are using up fresh water that took hundreds of thousands of years to fill aquifers , to get the harder to get at oil. If oil is hard to live without , just try growing food without water.

I'm starting to rant. Will get off my soapbox now.
__________________

__________________
“The finance industry is 5% rational people and 95% shamans and faith healers.” - Charlie Munger
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Retirement prospects and peak oil theory? kjpliny FIRE and Money 21 03-21-2006 12:52 AM
Peak Oil Marshac Young Dreamers 65 08-03-2005 09:47 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:06 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.