Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Political Polls Way Off
Old 01-29-2008, 10:27 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,198
Political Polls Way Off

I've usually found that political polls are reasonably accurate (+-5%). However, the last SC primary I saw said Obama 38%, Clinton 30%. Final result was 55% to 27%.

Has something changed or was I just not paying attention before.

Also, it seems that the media are not projecting winners as early as they used to -- product of Florida 2000?
__________________

__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-29-2008, 10:39 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,112
Remember the NH primary?

"For days, poll after poll showed Illinois Sen. Barack Obama opening a big lead heading into the New Hampshire Democratic primary. But when the votes were counted, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won. Even she seemed surprised."

Politics | How did pollsters blow it in Clinton-Obama race? | Seattle Times Newspaper

The winds of popularity in the primaries seem to be frequently changing directions.
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 10:44 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 192
Somewhere I read that it was becoming harder for pollsters to get good samples because so many folks no longer have land-lines. Is there such a thing as a cell phone phonebook?

Increase In Cell Phone-Only Users A Problem For Pollsters - CBS News
__________________

NotSoonEnough is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 10:51 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
i voted for edwards because he's cuter than hillary or obama.
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 10:52 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum View Post
i voted for edwards because he's cuter than hillary or obama.
His hair is totally perfect.
__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 11:11 AM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
cantlogin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Pocono Mtns.
Posts: 884
Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

__________________
cantlogin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 11:13 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,112
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantlogin View Post
Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?
Of course! Why didn't I think of that...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 11:14 AM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 961
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantlogin View Post
Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

Could be might be.

You do remember the Florida recount and the Supreme Court decision in 2000 which elected Old George W and left the GREAT AL GORE out in the cold.

GOD BLESS
__________________
War is a poor chisel to carve out tomorrow. - Martin Luther King Jr.
Seek peace, and pursue it. - Psalms 34:14
Be kind to unkind people - they need it the most - by Ashleigh Brilliant.
Wags is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 11:15 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
maddythebeagle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
I wonder how much of it is poor polling vs. people turning away from a supposed "front runner"...
__________________
- Hurry! to the cliffs of insanity!
maddythebeagle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 11:18 AM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 13,275
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
I've usually found that political polls are reasonably accurate (+-5%). However, the last SC primary I saw said Obama 38%, Clinton 30%. Final result was 55% to 27%.

Has something changed or was I just not paying attention before.

Also, it seems that the media are not projecting winners as early as they used to -- product of Florida 2000?
The problem is that they do not tell you how many are undecided... and that can be a big number... they then think that the undecided will break down about the same percent as the ones who tell...

BUT... I saw a program last night and they said a HUGH percent made their decision the last 3 days... and also a number changed because of what the Clintons did (read Bill).... so their plan to make him the 'black' candidate backfired in a state that is almost 50% black...

Now, we will see if it has any affect on Super Tuesday.
__________________
Texas Proud is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 12:12 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fireup2020's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,186
If someone asks me, I do not know that I'd tell the truth anyway! (nor would I divulge my vote to the media!) My truth is in my ballot cast! (or on ER forum polls)
__________________
Make no mistake, my friend, it takes more than money to make men rich. - A. P. Gouthey
Fireup2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-29-2008, 10:59 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantlogin View Post
Is it possible that the polls reflect what the voters think and that the election results reflect what those who control the voting machines think?

I'm just askin'.

That's how it works for us here in Chicago. Is it different by you?
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2008, 02:39 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,072
Like Fireup2025 I'd probably say "none of your business" or lie ;-) that's why they count votes afterwards and have official results.....it;s fun messing with the poll machine
__________________

__________________
Deserat aka Bridget
“We sleep soundly in our beds because rough men stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm.” - George Orwell/Winston Churchill
deserat is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Why Were My Polls Deleted? TromboneAl Forum Admin 6 07-05-2007 10:34 AM
Re: Are polls anonymous? laurence Other topics 11 04-07-2006 02:09 PM
Are polls anonymous? Lusitan Forum Admin 7 04-07-2006 11:58 AM
How often do you lie on polls? cute fuzzy bunny Other topics 16 02-22-2006 06:49 PM
Polls now available dory36 Forum Admin 2 05-01-2005 08:29 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:30 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.