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Old 08-05-2014, 09:18 PM   #141
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The only thing we seem to be disagreeing on is whether backup cameras are a clear-cut best use of our funds to reduce death, injuries, and property damage. I think the question is open.
Which has pretty much been my point from the beginning. Emotion is no substitute for analysis when it comes to making public policy. A point that I believe you yourself have made many times on this forum.
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Old 08-05-2014, 09:45 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Gumby View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
The only thing we seem to be disagreeing on is whether backup cameras are a clear-cut best use of our funds to reduce death, injuries, and property damage. I think the question is open.
Which has pretty much been my point from the beginning. Emotion is no substitute for analysis when it comes to making public policy. A point that I believe you yourself have made many times on this forum.
Agreed, but you are losing me ...

Looking back, it wasn't until post #117 that you said you looked at the numbers. But in post # 111, you said:


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I think the backup camera is a fine option for those who see some value in it. I don't think it should be mandatory for everyone.
.... So I'm lost as to how you came to the conclusion that they should not be mandatory before you looked at the numbers? It would appear to be an emotional response.

I'm still undecided, but just as I said earlier (and I'll repeat here for clarity), if your analysis was correct/close, it does strike me as a large cost relative to benefit, and I would think there are better 'bang for the buck' places to invest that money. I'm not sure what those would be offhand, but I'd bet that some experts in traffic safety have a list.

I don't think Solar Roads are one of them

-ERD50
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Old 08-05-2014, 10:03 PM   #143
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Some numbers:
WP Article "How Much Does it Cost to Save a Life?"
From the article (1993 numbers). Figures are "dollars per life-year saved". Going this route avoids the emotional/political minefield of the surrogate mother example:
Quote:
  • -child safety seats in cars, $73,000
  • -flammability standards in upholstered furniture, $300
  • -flammability standards in childrens clothing, size 7-14, $15,000,000
  • -flammability standards in childrens clothing, size 0-6x, $220,000
  • -child resistant cigarette lighters, $42,000
  • -signal arms on school buses, $420,000
  • -influenza vaccine age 5+ $1,300
The article has a link to a much bigger study of this, with hundreds of examples. Including (1993 costs):
Smoke detectors in homes: $210,000
Widen shoulders on rural two-lane roads to 5 feet (from 2 feet): $120,000
One-time cervical cancer screening for women age 38: $1,200
Prenatal care for pregnant women: $ 2,100

If these camera systems are going to cost about $200 x 20 million new cars/trucks sold per year in the US, and if 60 lives per year will be saved (approx 50 life-years average per case, my guesstimate) by the cameras, we're at about $1 million per life-year saved. Even if we double the 1993 costs in the article to account for inflation, it is clear that LOTS of things have much more bang-for-the-buck than these backup cameras, at least until those opportunities are used up. Heck, just making everyone in a vehicle wear a $20 bicycle helmet would probably be a better payoff.
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Old 08-05-2014, 10:52 PM   #144
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Agreed, but you are losing me ...

Looking back, it wasn't until post #117 that you said you looked at the numbers. But in post # 111, you said:




.... So I'm lost as to how you came to the conclusion that they should not be mandatory before you looked at the numbers? It would appear to be an emotional response.

I'm still undecided, but just as I said earlier (and I'll repeat here for clarity), if your analysis was correct/close, it does strike me as a large cost relative to benefit, and I would think there are better 'bang for the buck' places to invest that money. I'm not sure what those would be offhand, but I'd bet that some experts in traffic safety have a list.

I don't think Solar Roads are one of them

-ERD50

I am sure Gumby will respond.... but I think his first stmt does not relate to the mandate...

IOW, there are people who will value the backup camera more than $100... and would pay the extra money to have one... not a mandate... but it has 'value' to them...
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Old 08-06-2014, 04:36 AM   #145
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Originally Posted by samclem View Post
Some numbers:
WP Article "How Much Does it Cost to Save a Life?"
From the article (1993 numbers). Figures are "dollars per life-year saved". Going this route avoids the emotional/political minefield of the surrogate mother example:
The article has a link to a much bigger study of this, with hundreds of examples. Including (1993 costs):
Smoke detectors in homes: $210,000
Widen shoulders on rural two-lane roads to 5 feet (from 2 feet): $120,000
One-time cervical cancer screening for women age 38: $1,200
Prenatal care for pregnant women: $ 2,100

If these camera systems are going to cost about $200 x 20 million new cars/trucks sold per year in the US, and if 60 lives per year will be saved (approx 50 life-years average per case, my guesstimate) by the cameras, we're at about $1 million per life-year saved. Even if we double the 1993 costs in the article to account for inflation, it is clear that LOTS of things have much more bang-for-the-buck than these backup cameras, at least until those opportunities are used up. Heck, just making everyone in a vehicle wear a $20 bicycle helmet would probably be a better payoff.
Thank you for this information. It is more helpful than my admittedly farfetched hypothetical.
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Old 08-06-2014, 04:50 AM   #146
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An argument examines facts and analyzes them to arrive at a proffered conclusion -- in this case that the proposed backup camera rule is uneconomic and should not be implemented.
Reasonable people disagree.

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It seems you are unable to comprehend that and would prefer to ascribe malicious motives to me. I call foul.
Call foul all you want: Your attempt at "argument" was offensive as well fallacious. Since you disagree, we'll have to agree to disagree.
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Old 08-06-2014, 04:53 AM   #147
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I am sure Gumby will respond.... but I think his first stmt does not relate to the mandate...

IOW, there are people who will value the backup camera more than $100... and would pay the extra money to have one... not a mandate... but it has 'value' to them...
If I had small children around and a large SUV with limited visibility, I probably would see the value in a backup camera. But I don't and therefore I don't. It was, as you note, an observation about my personal valuation of the option, not a particular statement about the NHTSA rule. However, while it's hard to recreate precisely what one was thinking in the past, I suspect that underlying my statement was an intuitive view that it would be a waste of money for every last one of us to have one. It was actually ERD's post immediately following (#112) that prompted me to evaluate the rule on the numbers.

In any event, I have hijacked the original thread far beyond all recognition, so I'll stop now.
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Old 08-06-2014, 06:17 AM   #148
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Thanks to Samclem and Gumby. I thought putting numbers to this exercize was useful and enlightening. It's not an off-topic discussion, the cost estimates being used don't include repair. I don't know if backup camera will have a higher failure rate than ABS or seat belt but I suspect yes and guess costly repair was not part of the calculation.
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Old 08-06-2014, 09:12 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by Texas Proud View Post
I am sure Gumby will respond.... but I think his first stmt does not relate to the mandate...

IOW, there are people who will value the backup camera more than $100... and would pay the extra money to have one... not a mandate... but it has 'value' to them...
Well, I'm still a little lost, but that's OK, it looks like that conversation has run its course, I'll move on as well ...

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Thanks to Samclem and Gumby. I thought putting numbers to this exercise was useful and enlightening. It's not an off-topic discussion, the cost estimates being used don't include repair. I don't know if backup camera will have a higher failure rate than ABS or seat belt but I suspect yes and guess costly repair was not part of the calculation.
For any safety mandate that makes good sense, I'd like to see a very long warranty period mandated as well. I'd go a step further, and say that any failure also results in a fine equal to the cost of the repair. That could go into a fund for other safety investments.

That would motivate the manufacturers to make these things reliable and repairable, and maybe use standardized modules and connectors where applicable to keep costs down.

-ERD50
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Old 08-06-2014, 09:13 AM   #150
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I am sure Gumby will respond.... but I think his first stmt does not relate to the mandate...

IOW, there are people who will value the backup camera more than $100... and would pay the extra money to have one... not a mandate... but it has 'value' to them...

I have had to drive my parents vehicle around for them for a few city trips they needed done recently. I haven't even noticed the back up camera and do not even use it while driving. They, however, like it and use it, when they drive, so I believe there is value to them. I do not think they are worried about backing into kids. I think they are worried about mailboxes and other cars.


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Old 08-06-2014, 10:38 AM   #151
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Original post:

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Replacement OEM GPS units are expensive
Current discussion:

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Should rear cameras be mandatory?
And people wonder what we do all day.
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Old 08-06-2014, 10:51 AM   #152
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Current discussion:


And people wonder what we do all day.
HA! I thought that too. I hadn't come back to this subscribed thread in a few days because of the non-relevant discussion...but usually after a couple of days, it will come back around...not in this case!
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Old 08-06-2014, 11:26 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by travelover View Post
Original post:
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Replacement OEM GPS units are expensive
Current discussion:
Quote:
Should rear cameras be mandatory?
And people wonder what we do all day.
Ahh, never underestimate the potential of smart people with free time.

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That would motivate the manufacturers to make these things reliable and repairable, and maybe use standardized modules and connectors where applicable to keep costs down.

-ERD50
I thought ERD did a great job bringing those two things together.
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Old 08-06-2014, 12:43 PM   #154
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I did not know backup cameras are now a requirement until I read this thread. For what it's worth, I want to share the following info.

The authors of Superfreakonomics pointed out that in the US if a person drove 24 hours/day at a speed of 30 mi/hr, he could expect to die of a traffic accident after driving straight for 285 years. This is based on actual fatalities and the trillions of miles that Americans drive each year.

They also pointed out that seat belts save lives at a cost of $30,000/life. Airbags? It's $1.8 million/life.

A thing I like to add is that the above numbers do not include costs coming from injuries and loss of limbs, etc... So, it gets a bit more complicated.

I have nothing more to add for now.

Oh, by the way, built-in NAVs suck. I think that's a concensus.
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Old 08-06-2014, 02:39 PM   #155
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The authors of Superfreakonomics pointed out that in the US if a person drove 24 hours/day at a speed of 30 mi/hr, he could expect to die of a traffic accident after driving straight for 285 years.
If a person tries that 30 MPH thing on most interstate highways, I doubt he'll have to wait 285 years to die in an accident. But I see some people that may have read that same thing and are trying it out.
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Old 08-06-2014, 03:22 PM   #156
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The authors of Superfreakonomics pointed out that in the US if a person drove 24 hours/day at a speed of 30 mi/hr, he could expect to die of a traffic accident after driving straight for 285 years.
When I was a kid, I took naps on the shelf above the back seat. When we were raising kids we used the back of the station wagon as a play pen. One time we packed 9 of us (four adults and 5 kids) into a CJ7. Loading the baseball team into the back of a pickup was common. It's a wonder any of us lived to adulthood
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Old 08-06-2014, 03:46 PM   #157
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It's a wonder any of us lived to adulthood





More here: A608bf60d8ab01316c90005056a9545d
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Old 08-06-2014, 04:51 PM   #158
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If a person tries that 30 MPH thing on most interstate highways, I doubt he'll have to wait 285 years to die in an accident. But I see some people that may have read that same thing and are trying it out.
It's curious how the authors use the average speed of 30 mph. But, in LA, around SF and on the DC beltway, people are lucky to average 30mph on the congested freeway.

By the way, I compute the driving distance for a fatality as 285 x 365 x 24 x 30 = 75 million miles. That's 12,500 coast-to-coast round trips (3,000 miles one way).
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Old 08-06-2014, 04:58 PM   #159
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When I was a kid, I took naps on the shelf above the back seat. When we were raising kids we used the back of the station wagon as a play pen. One time we packed 9 of us (four adults and 5 kids) into a CJ7. Loading the baseball team into the back of a pickup was common. It's a wonder any of us lived to adulthood
The authors of Superfreakonomics pointed out that people did die a lot more in auto accidents before the availability of seat belts. They said McNamara, as president of Ford Motor before being Secretary of Defense during the Vietnam war, was credited with pushing for seat belts in cars as a life saver device. At $30K/life, it is really cheap.
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