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Reaching age 65
Old 10-26-2014, 07:09 PM   #1
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Reaching age 65

In looking at some statistics about averages, I wondered what percentage of our population has reached retirement age.

Yeah... so it's interesting much in the way we think about how we compare to others, as in accumulated wealth, average cost of living, life expectancy etc., but to take it a bit further, just how many people live to reach the normal retirement age, and what does it mean to our economy? Cost of healthcare, Social Security, and anything else where the dollars may involve those who are under the age 65.

This is very complicated, because it not only involves the cost, but also the income that supports the economy.

And to take this one step further, how will the world handle the effects of the changing balance between the young and the old... considering the positive effects of medicine in allowing longer lives.

Are you still with me? Heres a comparison of different countries, with the 2013 percent of population age 65 and older.



But WAIT
Those are just the countries with over 65 populations %'s equal to or greater than the US...

Here's the rest of the list of 164 Countries who currently have a lower percent of the population who are over 65.
Population ages 65 and above (% of total) | Data | Table

Something to think about in the coming years of your own retirement. A look at the the effects of population and economics on the economy is currently playing out in the laboratory that is China.. and the existing extreme that is Japan.

Some of the high % over 65's and the National debt.
Think in terms of the natinal debts of:
Japan, 214%
Greece 161%
Italy 126%
Ireland 119%
Iceland 119%
Portugal 129%
Spain 86%
Belgium 100%
United Kingdom 90%
France 90%
Germany 80%
US 73%

See the relationship between aging populations and National debt to GDP?
What happens when the lowest rating countries come into the 21st Century?

Maybe a bit obscure today, but tomorrow?
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:55 PM   #2
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After extracting the numbers in the above post, I found this site that allows similar comparisons, drawing the same conclusion... aging population equals greatest debt.Countries Compared by People > Age structure > 65 years and over. International Statistics at NationMaster.com
Seems like a no brainer, but I haven't seen much attention devoted to this relationship, nor any good solutions.
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Old 10-26-2014, 08:03 PM   #3
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Given the demand that those age 65 and older place on mechanisms like Social Security and Medicare, it might be worthwhile to study those countries that have a much smaller percentage of their population in that age group. Perhaps the United States could pick up some pointers there for future policy changes.
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Old 10-26-2014, 08:15 PM   #4
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The optimists have been saying the world's elderly will be chauffeured around by self-driving cars, and have their Depend changed by robots. I don't think technology will advance that soon enough, but that may be just me.
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Old 10-27-2014, 07:57 AM   #5
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How do those other countries do in terms of immigration? My guess is the US is way ahead on that front.
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Old 10-27-2014, 09:25 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M Paquette View Post
Given the demand that those age 65 and older place on mechanisms like Social Security and Medicare, it might be worthwhile to study those countries that have a much smaller percentage of their population in that age group. Perhaps the United States could pick up some pointers there for future policy changes.
This is in line with what I'm thinking. The balance between expenses and the number of people is the key.

The rest of this is my own surmise, and some empirical observations.
I believe that China saw this coming, and that this was the basis for the "One Child" policy begun in 1979.

While I don't know the details, a friend described the Germany policy as being in the opposite direction. A high tax policy that provides for perks that the US does not have... "take your vacation with you when you change jobs", an extremely friendly health law that provides for lowest cost/highest benefit.

The NAFTA and WTO policies, while theoretically correct, in an imperfect world, leave much on the table for the US in the short run... And that's the position that most of today's ER's are in.

On a very personal basis, none of this is my direct concern. I don't see disaster happening in my last 10 years, but were I age 55 or so, with another 25 to 30 years ahead, I should be very concerned, since those who are beyond the working class have little recourse... not able to re-enter the work force, and much less flexible in being able to adapt.

An unsustainable national debt poses the most limitations on those with the greatest vulnerabilities. Galloping inflation destroys accumulative wealth disproportionately to older people, compared to to younger persons, who have the time and health with which to recover. (Remember that the Great Depression had a 10 to 15 year recovery).

The subject is too large to cover in a thread, but there are some parts of the process that may well be worthwhile to study and understand. Maybe to start with learning about "debt deflation"... as a clue to safety net protections.

Not looking for a solution, as in political or policies to be followed, but more as an understanding of the more distant overview. The simplest comparison from the "charts" is that the more backward the country, the lower number of over 65's, but considering the accelerated technology in the poorer countries, this will equalize their national economies at a rapid rate, considering the low "over 65" cost overhang.
Reposting that chart of % of population over 65 for a closer look:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/...-last&sort=asc
Scroll... top to bottom.

Enough for now.
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Old 10-29-2014, 12:39 AM   #7
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Picking up from where the thread left off.

First off... a one hour read:
Human overpopulation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But then to the core and the original concern that prompted the thread.

As the rest of the world catches up, and the emerging nations participate in the rapid economic growth that accompanies today's technology, it is inevitable that the US economy will suffer AND, IMHO, not in a few decades, but in a few years.

Reduced to the simplest terms.
Current advanced nations have a senior overhang. A cost that will only increase.

Emerging nations with almost NO senior population (see the charts) will catch up and pass our economy. The problems that kept them poor, are being solved.
Food production advances
Medicine - reduces the death rate
Economies of scale
Economies of electronics, vehicles, mfg equipment
A rapid acceleration of education
A rapid acceleration of social infrastructure

So what?

That's the big question. How do we, as individuals, prepare for these changes. We will no longer live in the vacuum of a U.S. centric economy.

Planning for a ten year timeline means making changes in education priorities, not in ten years, but now. In all areas of education.
Investing... While we look at the rapid China Growth, and American companies setting roots to capitalize on the new markets, it is naive to believe that this business will stay America Based.
The time to understand Peak Prosperity is passing by quickly. Most of the emerging economies growth is looked on as an opportunity rather than the competition which is for US investors, a negative.

Too much to discuss, but a time to read between the lines... to look ahead... far ahead... to turn the understanding of the coming newer economics.

And lest we forget, the basic fact is that the US, Canada and the European nations have the older populations and the accompanying non productive and costly senior support expense.

Reading the wiki article on human overpopulation brings the contrasting cultures into a perspective that we have seen little of. Have to stand back a long way to see how this will play out in the near future. Not too off the wall to think that the current ISIS situation may be part of this.
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Old 10-29-2014, 10:52 AM   #8
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Current news that speaks to the potential problems facing those who will reach the age 65 retirement age... in this case, pensions.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rising...230400671.html
Quote:
Good news for Americans: You are living longer.

The bad news: The longer life span doesn’t bode well for the corporate pension plans that are supposed to support workers into old age.

New mortality estimates released Monday by the nonprofit Society of Actuaries show the average 65-year-old U.S. woman is expected to live 88.8 years, up from 86.4 in 2000. Men age 65 are expected to live 86.6 years, up from 84.6 in 2000.

Longer lives for retirees may add to a squeeze at many pension funds already struggling to plug funding gaps and force companies to contribute more to cover future obligations.

The estimates also are expected to accelerate a shift away from defined-benefit pension plans that offer guaranteed payouts, said Rick Jones, senior partner at consultant Aon Hewitt.

More companies are moving workers into defined-contribution plans, such as a 401(k), where employees are largely responsible for saving and investment choices.

The new estimates released Monday—based on data from corporate pension plans—could eventually increase retirement liabilities by roughly 7% for most corporate plans, according to Aon Hewitt.

The Society of Actuaries predicts the increases could range from 4% to 8%.

Corporations have roughly $3 trillion in current retirement liabilities
The positive about this kind of news, is that it allows younger persons to prepare. Where a choice of buyouts or plan conversions are possible, at least a chance to look at options, or at worst to consider the strength of their pension plans.

The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation website has links to asses the strength of individual pension plans, especially multiemployer plans.

This one hits home on a personal basis, as one of my sons has a plan that was deemed to be solid two years go, has moved into a questionable category. At age 55, he has some options. Others in his business have ignored the warning signs... A personal choice.

This is but one part of looking ahead. Broadening the scope of planning for the future, IMHO requires looking...not just at investments and the stock market, but at the changes that will be taking place on a worldwide basis in the next 20 years. The real reason for the subject of this thread.

Thoughts from the new Ebola Czar on the general subject.
http://www.wnd.com/2014/10/is-new-eb...verpopulation/
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Old 10-29-2014, 08:21 PM   #9
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To add some substance to the thinking about our position relative to the world, and what we might expect in the retirement years, here is an interactive map that shows the actual debt per person, country, and the debt relative to the GDP for the entire world.
The point to be made here is the future of the US economy relative to other economies as a factor for our own personal wealth.

Simple examples in UD$$$ comparison of China and the US national debt...
Debt per person:
US $44,000
China $1,200
Public debt as % of GDP
US 86%
China 18%

The other major part of this debt concern, as it relates to the foreseeable retirement years is the matter of unfunded liabilities. While the US debt is now $18 trillion, the unfunded liabilities total $115 trillion.

And so, although we hear very little about the five, ten fifteen or twenty year projections for the US economy, these numbers, and the comparisons to the emerging markets, beg for some rational explanation to justify a positive outlook.

So, given the gloom that surrounds the comparisons, what can happen to change this?... and most important of all, what to do to plan for a safe retirement?

To do this, we have to look at way to stay ahead of any possible downturn. The most logical way to adjust to unsustainable debt is to debase the currency... resulting (long term) in inflation. (deflation first, then inflation).

In this scenario, the retirement safety comes through planning best measures to withstand inflation.

(message to self: How do we do that?)
First logical step... Google 'planning for inflation' for surprising results and suggestions.
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Old 10-29-2014, 08:36 PM   #10
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Doesn't this have more to do with reproductive rates than with longevity.

The countries with higher percentage of over 65 yo's also have lower fertility rates.

Italy is 21% on your chart. Their birthrate is 1.41 kids per woman.
Japan was 1.37 kids/woman.
The US was 2 kids/woman.

http://www.oecd.org/els/family/47710686.pdf
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Old 10-29-2014, 10:18 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by rodi View Post
Doesn't this have more to do with reproductive rates than with longevity.

The countries with higher percentage of over 65 yo's also have lower fertility rates.

Italy is 21% on your chart. Their birthrate is 1.41 kids per woman.
Japan was 1.37 kids/woman.
The US was 2 kids/woman.

http://www.oecd.org/els/family/47710686.pdf
Yes the number of live births is a factor, but longevity, especially in the poorer nations is affected by life expectancy in turn affected by nutrition and healthcare.

At least the healthcare should improve, if not by having more doctors, then by the availability of medicines and vaccines. Agree or not with GMO's the fact is the food production is increasing and will continue to increase.

In worst case scenarios, where education does not improve, the simple logistics of technology and robotics promises huge increases in productivity, and improvement in national economies.

This brings up the next major factor that will affect the US position in the world economy. The bouncing ball that is globalization. Free trade is a win-win for the financial community, which exists as floating wealth, as the people in the countries affected are left in a lose only situation.

Here's what happens. The US farms out manufacturing to Mexico, and the corporation pockets the labor savings. As the Mexican factory becomes profitable, and the people begin to earn a living wage, the corporation looks to Venezuela or Guatemala or wherever wages are lower, and moves operations there... again pocketing the wage savings. One has but to look at Detroit or the former Textile industry from New England to the South, to China or Taiwan, to see the perfect examples.

Toi bring the subject back to the beginning premise... of what the coming retirement years will bring for early retirees today, and for the next ten or twenty years. Not just the state of the US financial markets, but the balance the world economies, and the US position therein.

Long term, it seems to me that the first order of business is to address the challenges of living with inflation at a time when gainful employment is the last resort. If we accept that, then the concentration must be on LBYM... not just cutting corners, but planning for contingencies, and looking at those "optimum retirement dreams" for travel, lifestyles, cars and day to day eating out, concerts, golf dates and other plusses... as being adjustable expenses.
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Old 10-30-2014, 09:21 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation website has links to asses the strength of individual pension plans, especially multiemployer plans.
I have been rooting around on the PBGC site, but I am having trouble finding these links. Can you be more specific about where these are?
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Old 10-30-2014, 11:16 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by Cat-tirement View Post
I have been rooting around on the PBGC site, but I am having trouble finding these links. Can you be more specific about where these are?
On the PBGC website you can download single employer and multiemployer plans insurec by the PBGC.
Insured Plans
(Far right side column - at the bottom, are the links)

If your plan is covered, they have to provide funding information to the PBGC, and provide it on request to employees.

My pension funds were managed through a Hewitt site - and on the hewitt side I can download the summary plan description as well as the annual funding notice. You should have something similar for your pension plan.
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